The Slant and Go with Chris Spags: Derrick Henry and Conference Championship Round NFL DFS Picks (FREE)

There are just two games for NFL DFS picks on this weekend’s slate as we learn who’ll head to the Super Bowl. We were able to find some edges to exploit in last week’s column and, even with just two games, I think we have some this weekend too. There are still a lot of big tournaments to go around so the game is afoot, ladies and gentlemen. Let’s talk about it all in our final non-Showdown slate of the season in the Conference Championship Round NFL DFS Slant and Go!

Tennessee Titans (22.8 implied points) at Kansas City Chiefs (30.3 implied points)

Top TEN NFL DFS picks:

  • Derrick Henry remains the first place to look. He had 34 carries in the Wild Card round and 30 in the Divisional round. He’s also facing a Kansas City defense that gave up 128.2 rushing yards per game with a 58 run defense grade from PFF. The Texans didn’t lean on the run even when they had their big early lead. The Titans absolutely will for as long as they can. Unless you play a lineup build that assumes a massive early lead for Kansas City, I’d match the field’s expected 48% ownership and likely exceed it.
  • That said, the Kansas City “big early lead” build has an interesting lower-owned option with Ryan Tannehill. A.J. Brown has been awful so far these playoffs with one catch in each game. But he should have substantial advantages against Bashaud Breeland and Charvarius Ward. With his price where he is, the field’s 50% exposure seems fair.
  • Corey Davis is an interesting lower-owned visit at a cheap price. I don’t mind him and he projects better than Jonnu Smith according to Awesemo. Kalif Raymond is a total dart throw, particularly with Adam Humphries back in practice in limited form. Humphries may be worth that dart throw more than Raymond with how he could rack up targets in the slot if he’s at full capacity.
  • Dion Lewis is also an interesting candidate for “big early lead” build. He’s insanely cheap and could easily pay off his fare if Tennessee trails, something they haven’t done so far these playoffs.

Top KC NFL DFS picks:

  • Patrick Mahomes is the chalk play of the week and it’s hard to argue again. Much like I said last week where he, to me, was worth whatever high ownership he’d have, I think Mahomes is worth whatever ownership he has against Tennessee’s 76-graded pass coverage. The run defense is a much stiffer option, though they give up a 10% DVOA boost to pass-catching backs. I think the end sum is Mahomes having multiple game scripts that favor him going nuts. Even if he gets punched in the mouth by a tough Tennessee defense on a drive or two, he’ll get back up and throw a touchdown shortly thereafter.
  • Tyreek Hill killed many quality lineups of mine last week, but I still believe he’s worth trusting again this week. Tennessee gives up a 20% DVOA boost to WR1s and Mahomes is more-than-capable enough to get him the ball. I’d want a comparable amount of Travis Kelce with a ton of red zone looks that resulted in three touchdownslast round. But I still think a Hill/Kelce stack is the most appealing option you have with Mahomes.
  • Damien Williams had a receiving touchdown on one of his two catches as his lone score in the Divisional round, but he had six targets in the game and he could go full James White here against Tennessee’s 83-graded run defense. They allow a slate low 4.0 yards per carry but, as mentioned above, they give a 10% boost to pass-catching backs. Williams remains in play for me despite his sky high ownership projected. LeSean McCoy didn’t record a touch last week.
  • I don’t see a huge need for Sammy Watkins’ 41% projected ownership besides his reasonable price. Watkins’s two grabs for 76 yards last week were nice but he, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson are roughly the same player to me.
  • The Chiefs defense is a logical consideration given that Tannehill turns the ball over at a respectable 2.1% rate with an 8.5% sack rate. It’s a home game and maybe that’s one pathway for the Chiefs to underperform offensively while still putting up points and creating more offensive upside for Tannehill. A Tannehill “Jameis Winston” stack with the Chiefs defense could be in play.

Green Bay Packers (19.5 implied points) at San Francisco 49ers (27 implied points)

Top GB NFL DFS picks:

  • Aaron Rodgers is too low owned. The 49ers are a terrifying defense, one I’ve touted as being among the best in the league all season long. But Rodgers is projected for 8% ownership on a two-game slate. Davante Adams will find it tough outside whether he gets Richard Sherman or Ahkello Witherspoon but he’s a great player who saw 11 targets last week. He’s also seen 11 or more in his last four games.
  • Rodgers with Adams and Allen Lazard is an appealing option to me but he could realistically get there with any of the secondary guys. He is always target agnostic outside of Adams so a split on ownership with Lazard and guys like Jimmy Graham, Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling seems fair. Rodgers won’t be close to my highest-owned quarterback but I’d want to get more than the field.
  • Aaron Jones will find some tough sledding in this matchup. His 21 carries and one catch on two targets were encouraging last week, as were the two touchdowns. But this is a very stout defense who gives up a 2.7% rushing touchdown rate and 54% DVOA decrease to pass-catching backs. It’s a harder pathway for him to excel even though his price and ownership seem fair.

Top SF NFL DFS picks:

  • I pushed for the George Kittle fade last week and it paid off big time as he went for 4.6 fantasy points at high ownership. I’d go back his way this week with a better matchup against Green Bay. They give up a 9% DVOA boost to tight ends, their weakest spot according to DVOA. Kittle’s ownership is high enough to consider a move to guys like Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders when stacked with Jimmy Garoppolo. But as an overall play, I see less reason to run from Kittle as there was last week. Green Bay also blitzes at a low 22.6% rate so there’s a better chance of Kittle being needed to stay in and block.
  • Garoppolo stacks are a perfectly fine option this week with his price where it is. The run defense for Green Bay has been stiffer in the last six weeks so it’s possible they don’t find as much ground success with people likely to point chase Tevin Coleman or pivot to the now-cheaper Raheem Mostert. I don’t love Garoppolo but I find his stacks a play worth having some exposure to with swaths of Kittle, Samuel, and Sanders in that order.
  • I’d favor Mostert in the backfield but he, Coleman, and Matt Breida all saw a chance to be the hot hand in the Divisional round. Breida had eight carries, Mostert had 12 and Coleman finished with 22. That can easily shift back around this week. I’ll have exposure to all three but it may be a “pay up to be contrarian” move to go to Coleman with shockingly low projected ownership.
  • Given the low total for Green Bay, the 49ers Defense is likely to be a popular play. I certainly like Vegas’s implied total but the 53% ownership is insanely high. I’d be more inclined to go under on them and try other defenses, specifically the Packers defense against Garoppolo’s 2.7% interception rate.

Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags to see all the rest of the NFL and NBA content I’ll have with new shows and videos all week long!

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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