The Slant and Go with Chris Spags: Patrick Mahomes and Divisional Round NFL DFS Picks (FREE)

We’re onto our last decently sized slate on the year and it’s a week that seems fairly cut and dry for NFL DFS picks. We’ll all likely run to the Houston-Kansas City game while farming for scraps in the other three games on the slate. Are there any spots you can find an edge in the NFL’s Divisional Round? I think there may be! Let’s talk about it all in our last four-gamer of the NFL Playoffs and season in the Divisional Round NFL DFS Slant and Go!

Minnesota Vikings (18.5 implied points) at San Francisco 49ers (25.5 implied points)

Top MIN NFL DFS picks:

• San Francisco’s secondary should look a lot healthier this week and I’d focus my interest on Dalvin Cook here as a result. The 49ers have a 74-graded run defense from PFF and they’ve shown the ability to be beaten from time to time. Cook had 28 carries and three catches on five targets in the Wild Card round against New Orleans. The team will undeniably rely on him as long as San Francisco doesn’t build an untenable lead.
• I would be less interested in the Stefon Diggs chalk despite his low price. I really believe in this 49ers defense, particularly with outside receivers. Diggs’ illness that’s knocked him out of practice the last few days doesn’t help either. I’d be inclined to take Adam Thielen inside if I had to take a pass catcher and I’m open to the concept of Diggs in a Vikings/Kirk Cousins stack that assumes the 49ers build a big lead. But otherwise, I’m likely to come under the field on Diggs.
• The Vikings defense was decent at a cheap price at New Orleans. If they somehow win this game, I’d think it comes from their defense again. This team has underperformed on defense relative to PFF grades until last week’s Wild Card shocker. That’s the pathway for them to win again.

Top SF NFL DFS picks:

• George Kittle is the chalk tight end play of the week and I currently think I’ll have less ownership than the field. Minnesota has allowed a 48% decrease in production to tight ends on the year according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Kittle is the weapon you have to stop on Minnesota’s end. I wouldn’t do a full fade but almost half the field on him feels like a risk. I don’t see Kittle’s usual catch and runs against Minnesota’s 90-graded tackling.
• Jimmy Garoppolo in stacks with Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel interests me as a concept. Samuel will be chalky thanks to the value and his hot run to end the year with three out of his last four games over 15.9 fantasy points. Minnesota gives up a 66% completion rate on the year and, if they fail defensively, it’ll likely start with the pass game. A 49ers stack that presumes a lead built by Cook as the run back is an intriguing lower owned option.
• San Francisco’s run game has been hard to figure out all year with their hot hand approach. Raheem Mostert seems likely to get the first looks but Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida are insanely cheap in comparison. San Francisco has been committed to the run but, as we saw last week at New Orleans, Minnesota is capable of thwarting even the most elusive backs if their defense plays up to potential. There is substantial risk if you play any of these backs and I may be more inclined to mostly match the field and pray.

Tennessee Titans (18.3 implied points) at Baltimore Ravens (28.3 implied points)

Top TEN NFL DFS PICKS:

• This offense begins with Derrick Henry once again. Henry had an insane 34 carries with one catch on one target in the Wild Card round. Baltimore’s run defense has been decent with 4.4 yards per carry and 93 rushing yards per game allowed. They also send a high 55% blitz rate that will initiate contact early with Henry on all carries. It is a brutal spot for him but his current 6% ownership is just too low with what we know he can do in terms of volume and upside. If you think Tennessee steals a win, you should play Henry.
• It’s hard to like Ryan Tannehill in this spot with Baltimore’s secondary better than their run defense. They give up a 58.5% completion rate this year with a low 2.8% passing touchdown rate. Tannehill attempted just 15 passes in the Wild Card round for 7 fantasy points. I’m inclined to avoid him overall even though I’d be OK with A.J. Brown. Brown was completely shut down by New England last week but Baltimore’s secondary, Marcus Peters in particular, can gamble on routes and create opportunity. I’d be most inclined for Brown in lineups that include Ravens players on the other side.

Top BAL NFL DFS picks:

• Lamar Jackson is unbelievably expensive but I could see a want for some exposure. Jackson can be played without pass catchers but, with how bad Tennessee’s secondary is, I’d be more inclined to pair him with guys like Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. Tennessee has a 67-graded coverage group from PFF, a stark contrast to their 88-graded run defense. Jackson can get rushing yards against anyone but I think he’ll have ample opportunity to do damage through the air.
• Mark Ingram has been ruled to be day-to-day with a few missed practices this week. Ingram’s work load would theoretically increase for the playoffs if he’s in. If he’s out, Gus Edwards and Justise Hill are very much in play. I don’t love Ingram due to that aforementioned matchup with the Tennessee rushing defense that gives up 4.0 yards per carry, but I could see wanting some exposure with his ownership around 10% as is currently projected.

Houston Texans (20.5 implied points) at Kansas City Chiefs (30.5 implied points)

Top HOU NFL DFS picks:

• Can Houston avoid getting obliterated by Kansas City? If you think so, Carlos Hyde is an intriguing play. Hyde had 22 fantasy points in Week 6 against the Chiefs with 26 carries on 116 yards and one catch on one target. Kansas City’s run defense is not good and a build that assumes Houston’s also not good defense stiffens up is one that should include Hyde. Even if Kansas City does score, Hyde can sneak in for some come from behind rushing touchdowns too. He’s an interesting play at low ownership and a reasonable price point.
• Deshaun Watson cobbled together 29.4 fantasy points against a much better Buffalo defense than the Kansas City team he’ll face this round. I have no issue with him here. Watson projects well, his price is reasonable and he ran 14 times against Buffalo. Watson will do whatever it takes to keep his team alive. Kansas City will generate better pressure with Dee Ford back in but Watson hanging in there against Buffalo gave me a lot more hope about his prospects in the playoffs.
• DeAndre Hopkins has a definite advantage outside against Bashaud Breeland. He was mostly thwarted in the Wild Card round, relatively speaking, with six grabs for 90 yards on eight catches. I’d be more than willing to go with him as chalk this week after I was well under the field on him last week against Tre’Davious White.
• Will Fuller seems more likely to play but his status remains up in the air. If he’s in, he’s the preferred stack option with Hopkins and Watson. But he could also open up more room to work for Kenny Stills so I imagine I’d have more of both those guys (and Watson stacks) if he’s in.

Top KC NFL DFS picks:

• Patrick Mahomes should destroy Houston. The Bills and Josh Allen let up on Houston when they thought they had the game in control out of fear that Allen would ruin the game for them. Their lack of aggressiveness kept Houston alive. Kansas City will not do the same. Mahomes stacked with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill is a chalk play of the week and they should be. Swap the secondary pass catchers like Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman or DeMarcus Robinson into the mix in some lineups but I consider the core Chiefs stack to be the one I’ll want more than any this week by a wide margin. Houston has a slate-worst 56 coverage grade from PFF and allows a slate-high 267 passing yards per game with a slate-high 5.6% passing touchdown rate.
• Damien Williams is a chalk play this week as well and that’s a little scarier. Houston’s run defense improves a lot with J.J. Watt back on the field and they limited Devin Singletary to just 58 rushing yards last week. Williams is involved enough in the pass game to mitigate that concern, but overall, the possibility of a LeSean McCoy or Darwin Thompson taking a few touches if Williams starts cold is a bit more of a concern for me.
• It also seems worth specifically pointing out: I’d favor Travis Kelce over George Kittle. Kittle is more of a key cog in his offense but I think the potential for outright failure is higher for him relative to ownership than Kelce’s in this particular matchup. 

Seattle Seahawks (21.8 implied points) at Green Bay packers (25.8 implied points)

Top SEA NFL DFS picks:

• I’m worried for Seattle in this situation. Green Bay’s run defense stiffened up substantially down the stretch, though on paper they still have just a 65 run defense grade from PFF. You could talk me into Marshawn Lynch more than Travis Homer even though the latter saw more touches in the Wild Card round. Homer may very well get gobbled up while Lynch will run hard and get goal line work. I’m not dying for either but I’d favor Lynch at the lower price.
• Russell Wilson can succeed again but this is a tougher spot against Green Bay’s 86-graded pass coverage. Wilson’s 24.5 fantasy points in the Wild Card round were the most he’s had since Week 9 and I’m not the most inclined to load up on him other than builds that assume Green Bay crushes to start.
• I touted D.K. Metcalf heavily last week and it was nice to see him come through with seven grabs for 160 yards and a score on nine targets. Tyler Lockett also saw four catches for 62 yards on eight targets. It’d be a good week to go back to Lockett with a cheaper price. But I imagine I won’t have a ton of them other than Seattle stacks run back with Aaron Jones. These guys and Jacob Hollister seem underowned for the second straight week but I like the matchup less than the one against Philadelphia.

Top GB NFL DFS picks:

• I like Aaron Jones a lot this week. Jones faces a Seattle defense that gives up 4.9 yards per carry with a 5.7% rushing touchdown rate. Seattle mostly limited Miles Sanders last week but he also split some touches and there was less concern about their pass game. Green Bay has legitimate weapons to worry about through the air and I think that opens things up enough for Jones to have a shot, particularly if Jamaal Williams is limited.
• Davante Adams looks like a strong play too with a big advantage outside against Tre Flowers. Adams is one of the stronger receiver plays overall on the week and I have no issue with him at all other than perhaps wanting the run game a little more.
• Aaron Rodgers stacked with Adams and Jimmy Graham or Allen Lazard seems like a decent pivot to what could be a chalky Jones and the run game. Seattle isn’t some great pass defense with 264 passing yards per game allowed but they prefer to run first if they can. I think Green Bay can pull out to an early lead here and then ride Jones/Williams so I’d be less inclined for Rodgers overall other than builds that assume Green Bay trails.

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