It was another high upside Week 9 thanks to Jaylen Samuels opening up a litany of options with lineup construction and, as of right now, there are no equivalents for our Week 10 NFL DFS picks. But that doesn’t mean we can’t find some edges with a lot of interesting matchups, some key players to await the injury status of, and yet another week where we’ll have to pray Jameis Winston helps guide a game to chalky success for both sides. We’ve got a lot to get through with the game-by-game breakdowns for this week’s main slate to unearth our Week 10 NFL DFS picks so let’s get to it in the latest Slant and Go!
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Before we get into all my preferred plays on the Week 10 NFL DFS main slate, let’s do our weekly accountability check with my Week 9 Victory Laps and Walks of Shame:
Week 9 Victory Laps
- I’m no hero for spotting the upside of Jaylen Samuels early in the week and riding him as the chalkiest play of the week. But the guy just looked to be in a pristine spot and it’s probably hard to fail when you have 13 catches in a game.
- Josh Jacobs was one of my top-owned backs of the week thanks to the killer matchup versus Detroit and his massive workload. Jacobs is going to be a guy to look at every week unless his price takes a big jump with a killer workload that seems to always include a few goal line looks.
- Preston Williams was a guy I had a lot of in Week 9 thanks to the matchup with the Jets that I identified in here as a positive one for the Miami passing offense. It’s a bummer we lost Williams for the year amidst his best game of the year but he smashed his price tags industry wide and opened up a lot elsewhere.
Week 9 Walks of Shame
- Darren Waller is officially the bane of my existence. I fade him correctly sometimes, I fade him wildly incorrectly others, and then I play him in what seems like a smash spot versus Detroit only for a dismal lineup killing game. I had so many lineups in the hunt that were murdered by Waller snowflakes. Excuse me while I shake my fist and yell angrily into the sky “WALLLLERRRRRRR!!!!”
- If you’ve followed my content by now you know I’m willing to play any QB with the last name of Allen. And yet with Brandon Allen in the mix for Week 9, I didn’t play much of him even though a stack of him and two guys I liked in Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant went off relative to price. Dalvin Cook killed a few of the cheap lineups I had with these guys while Christian McCaffrey thrived. There were definitely ways for me to squeeze big upside out of that low priced but overperforming stack with some high priced smash plays.
- I liked the opportunity for Sam Darnold and the Jets stack at low ownership versus Miami. Jamison Crowder had a great day but Darnold floundered after the first quarter while Robby Anderson was missed on so many deep balls. It was painful to see unfold and I now consider coach Adam Gase and the Jets O-line mortal enemies of mine.
Now that we did our always important self-loathing and pats on the back, let’s get to it with the Slant and Go and my Week 10 NFL DFS picks!
Atlanta Falcons (19 implied points) at New Orleans Saints (32 implied points)
Top ATL NFL DFS picks:
- Matt Ryan’s price is down despite his 41 pass attempts per game in a matchup versus the surging Saints defense. New Orleans brings a big pass rush with a 29% pressure rate and the low total is definitely a cause for concern. Ryan could be a contrarian play but it will not be easy sledding.
- Julio Jones is never out of play despite a tough matchup with shadow coverage expected from Marshon Lattimore. That said, it could be a week to take a shot on a guy like Calvin Ridley or the cheap Russell Gage who saw seven catches for 58 yards on 35 routes, including 27 routes out of the slot.
- Austin Hooper continues to be well targeted with an 18% target share and Ryan’s return certainly won’t hurt. At his price I don’t hate the idea against the 9% DVOA boost New Orleans gives TEs.
Top NO NFL DFS picks:
- Drew Brees is priced up a lot in in a potentially big spot. Atlanta gives up a 70% completion rate with a high 7.6% passing TD rate and 8.4 YPP. Brees and Michael Thomas could feast with Ted Ginn also likely to benefit with the move from pop-gun armed Teddy Bridgewater.
- Alvin Kamara is in a slightly less stellar spot but his price looks fine. Atlanta’s run defense is the one thing they’ve been competent with on D with just 3.8 YPR allowed. Kamara can still get there if he sees volume with New Orleans likely to soar down the field but it’s definitely not as much a smash spot as it may seem.
Baltimore Ravens (27.8 implied points) at Cincinnati Bengals (17.8 implied points)
Top BAL NFL DFS picks:
- Coming off a huge performance versus New England, it’s hard to imagine there not being a lot to love about the matchup versus Cincinnati. Lamar Jackson annihilated Cincinnati in Week 6 with 152 rushing yards on 19 attempts plus 236 passing yards. Even with his elevated price he may be worth some elevated exposure.
- Mark Ingram could be the one who gets going with Lamar unlikely to soar to those rushing highs again. Cincinnati allows 5.1 YPR but the risk is that Ingram has only seen more than 16 carries in a game once this year.
- Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews are at least a bit appealing as pass catching options but given Lamar’s rushing potential I don’t hate the idea of running him naked. Cincinnati allows a 17% DVOA boost to WR1s and a 20% boost to TEs.
Top CIN NFL DFS picks:
- I’m really not interested in anything on this side. Ryan Finley is cheap but how will he fare against Baltimore’s 48% blitz rate? It’s a massive question. And with AJ Green expected back in, we should see less upside for guys like Tyler Boyd and Auden Tate. Cincinnati stinks and maybe removing Andy Dalton gives them some sort of dead cat bounce. But the Bengals are mostly just the dead cat at this point.
Kansas City Chiefs (26.3 implied points) at Tennessee Titans (22.3 implied points)
Top KC NFL DFS picks:
- Patrick Mahomes remains questionable and Matt Moore would be a passable fill-in if he’s out. I don’t think Moore is a great player if Mahomes is out again but he deserves a stab at his price point given how his receivers can carry him to greatness.
- Tyreek Hill beat double teams and bracket coverage for a monster six catch, 140 yard day with a TD on eight targets. Hill can win outside in this spot with Tennessee allowing a 21% boost to WR1s according to DVOA. I’d be less inclined for multiples of these guys given Moore’s weaknesses and the matchup. But Hill, Travis Kelce, and Sammy Watkins are perfectly fine individual plays with Hill maintaining the most upside by far.
- I would not point chase Damien Williams 12 carry, 125 yard day with a TD and two catches in Week 9. Even though Christian McCaffrey took Tennessee to the wood shed, Williams is not behind as good of a line. And even with McCaffrey’s explosion, Tennessee gives up just 4 YPR with a 90 run defense grade from PFF.
Top TEN NFL DFS picks:
- Ryan Tannehill could have some upside in a game where Tennessee will likely need some scoring to catch up. AJ Brown led the team in routes in Week 9 and he could be a strong play with a reasonable price point. It’s likely splitting hairs between Brown and Corey Davis but Brown’s ability to get out and run intrigues me a bit more in this spot.
- Derrick Henry is in a good spot on paper but one where he could easily get game flowed out. Kansas City allows 4.8 YPR with a 56 graded run defense. If Tennessee’s defense oppresses the Chiefs just enough, Henry could get out to a big start.
Detroit Lions (19.8 implied points) at Chicago Bears (22.8 implied points)
Top DET NFL DFS picks:
- Matthew Stafford would certainly be contrarian with his price down and Chicago allowing a surprisingly high 68.4% completion rate. But Kenny Golladay will be well defended and Chicago still allows just 230 passing yards per game with a low 2.7% passing TD rate. It’s a thought…just not a thought I’m confident in. I could see dart throws of Stafford-Marvin Jones or Danny Amendola
- TJ Hockenson also could be in a better than expected spot given the 19% DVOA boost Chicago provides to TEs. It’s really their one weakness on paper.
Top CHI NFL DFS picks:
- This really should be a spot Mitchell Trubisky should be viable but oh lord does he stink. Detroit gives up 288.4 passing yards per game with 10.2 air yards per target. I don’t know if I’ll have much Mitchell but it does seem like a spot where maybe he won’t totally sabotage Allen Robinson this week.
- David Montgomery followed up his monster Week 8 with 17 touches in Week 9 with two TDs. He’s not a crazy play at all here with the 4.7 YPR Detroit allows with a 61 graded run defense by PFF.
Arizona Cardinals (23.5 implied points) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28 implied points)
Top ARI NFL DFS picks:
- Arizona’s run game plans tend to be very creative but they really should find problems in this matchup. Tampa Bay brings a 52% blitz rate with 3.4 YPR and 78 rushing yards per game allowed. There may not be lanes for David Johnson or Kenyan Drake and I’d be more inclined to look elsewhere than expect them to beat the trend.
- That said, Kyler Murray can go bananas in a very winnable matchup. Tampa Bay now gives up 294 passing yards per game with a 5.8% passing TD rate. Kyler will take some sacks with that high blitz rate but he could find rushing upside and big gains when he keeps plays alive.
- Christian Kirk would be my preferred WR play with 15 targets and 10 catches for 87 yards since he returned. Larry Fitzgerald has remained involved with eight targets since Kirk’s returns but his 0.78 yards per route has been dwarfed by Kirk’s 1.43. Kirk is more targeted per route than Fitzgerald but his return to the lineup gives them both more pass game opportunity.
- I also wouldn’t totally sleep on Andy Isabella. His 88-yard TD versus San Francisco shows his big play ability and he really seems due an uptick from the 10 routes he ran in that game.
Top TB NFL DFS picks:
- Jameis Winston is going to be exceedingly popular this week. And while that is a harrowing place to be, Arizona’s 72% completion rate and 7.4% passing TD rate are too good to ignore. It’s a home game and a matchup where a much less high upside QB in Jimmy Garoppolo just had his best game of the year with over 300 yards and four passing TDs. It wouldn’t shock me if Jameis’ ceiling ends up exceeded by another QB due to how error prone he is but he should find more than enough production in this spot.
- Mike Evans has clearly asserted himself ahead of Chris Godwin in the pecking order in recent weeks. Evans’ 2.4 deep targets per game now dwarf Godwin’s 1 per game, ditto Evans’ 10.4 targets per game to Godwin’s 9.
- OJ Howard’s is expected to and he could finally be in a spot he can win with the 42% DVOA boost to TEs that Arizona provides. Howard still is lightly targeted with three per game but he has 27 routes per game. If ever there’s a time for OJ to go off, this is it.
Buffalo Bills (19 implied points) at Cleveland Browns (21.5 implied points)
Top BUF NFL DFS picks:
- Can we trust the 23 touches Devin Singletary got to Frank Gore’s 11 in Week 9? It’s another solid spot against a Cleveland defense that allows 4.9 YPR and 141.3 rushing yards per game. I wouldn’t load up on Singletary but he’s been a monster with 6.7 yards per attempt on the year and a big workload here could be a smash spot.
- John Brown is always in play with his ability to get behind a defense but his price really feels a bit too high now. Ditto Josh Allen who has yet to tap into the upside he had last year. These guys are winning but Allen, and Brown to a lesser extent, will not see the ceiling they need unless they fall deathly behind in a game.
Top CLE NFL DFS picks:
- Buffalo’s run defense has been more beatable in recent weeks, now up to 4.4 YPR and a 4.4% rushing TD rate. Given how Nick Chubb has singlehandedly annihilated teams with his 22 touches per game and 3.6 yards after contact, he could get going here at a reasonable price. The addition of Kareem Hunt to the roster is a risk, particularly to Chubb’s four targets a game. But Chubb could be intriguing in a spot where Cleveland’s O line may be able to get some push.
- Jarvis Landry will see far more favorable coverage than Odell Beckham, who should see a lot of Tre’davious White. Landry strikes me as a bit sneaky this week with a decreased price point.
NY Giants (23 implied points) at NY Jets (20.5 implied points)
Top NYG NFL DFS picks:
- Saquon Barkley has really not gotten going thanks to the Giant’s poor 56 graded run blocking by PFF. And once again it looks like a tough spot with the Jets allowing 3.1 YPR with a 78 run defense grade. Maybe he gets going here with his price reasonable for the upside he showed last year.
- Daniel Jones is not going to have a good time versus the 41% blitz rate the Jets throw out there. The Jets give up some pass game production, as we saw last week at Miami, but I’d be more inclined to one-off a target like Golden Tate than attempt to stack with Jones.
Top NYJ NFL DFS picks:
- Sam Darnold was a MASSIVE disappointment for me last week at Miami. He started hot and then just fell apart as Miami brought big pressure. The Giants don’t blitz a lot, just 24% of the time, and their 20% pressure rate is also not too high. They also allow a 69.3% completion rate and 5.7% passing TD rate. I’ll have some Darnold this week as well as Robby Anderson and lone Week 9 pass game bright spot Jamison Crowder But I have zero confidence after they shat the bed so thoroughly versus Miami. This is a poorly coached team who cannot protect their QB and that makes them hard to trust even in ideal fantasy conditions.
- LeVeon Bell looks fine once again with his price down. He’ll struggle too thanks to that not good Jets O-line but the Giants’ 71 graded run defense can be beaten down by his volume. That said, his knee is apparently having issues and that could be a problem (or an opportunity for Bilal Powell or Ty Montgomery if he’s out).
Miami Dolphins (16.8 implied points) at Indianapolis Colts (27.3 implied points)
Top MIA NFL DFS picks:
- Ryan Fitzpatrick has had some sneaky weeks recently. This spot versus Indianapolis may not be as bad as it seems. They dominate the time of possession with 31:35 per game and limit opponent plays to 59.4 per game and that’s how their defense succeeds. But they give up a 69.3% completion rate and, while they keep passes in front of them with 7.3 air yards per target and 6.9 YPP, there could be opportunity at a low price. Fitzpatrick has two out of his last three games over 21.5 FP.
- DeVante Parker could see more upside now that Preston Williams has been lost for the year. Williams’ absence could make things slightly more constricted for guys like Parker, Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant, and Mike Gesicki but it may take a week of seeing how it shakes out to trust any of them much more than you currently do.
- Kalen Ballage could see more work with Mark Walton suspended. Indianapolis gives up 4.6 YPR with a 58 graded run defense by PFF and Walton leaves about 12-15 touches up for grabs with his absence. Ballage does stink though with 2 yards per attempt, for what it’s worth.
Top IND NFL DFS picks:
- Jacoby Brissett’s status is key with him reportedly having a chance to play this week. Brian Hoyer was solid in his stead with 17-for-26 passing for 168 yards with three TDs and a pick but he’s been priced up for this spot. Hoyer could smash as a backup while Brissett could be a solid play even with his top target TY Hilton expected to stay sidelined.
- Zach Pascal paced Indianapolis with 37 routes in Week 9 with Hilton out and he seems like he’d be the guy to want here. No WR for Indianapolis had a target of 20+ yards in the spot but Pascal and Chester Rogers were tied with five targets each. Both guys are in play while Parris Campbell could very well break a big score with the 24 routes he had in Week 9.
- Jack Doyle saw Indianapolis’s lone deep target of Week 9 along with 29 routes to Eric Ebron’s 19. Given their price discrepancy, that does make Doyle appealing.
- Marlon Mack has to be the most appealing Indianapolis option despite his soaring price. Mack has 21 touches per game and could carve up the Dolphins given their 4.7 YPR allowed for 150.8 rushing yards per game with a 62 run defense grade from PFF.
Carolina Panthers (20.5 implied points) at Green Bay Panthers (26 implied points)
Top CAR NFL DFS picks:
- Christian McCaffrey’s price continues to rise after he smashed with 4x value despite his $10,000 DraftKings price tag. He faces a poor Green Bay run defense that gives up 4.7 YPR, 127.7 rushing yards per game, and has a 63 run defense grade from PFF. You just have to match the field’s expected ownership on him at this point and find value with upside to sort it out.
- I’m not into the pass game even with Kyle Allen’s good news that he’ll keep the starting job the rest of the regular season with Cam Newton moved to IR. Curtis Samuel could get a look from me with his low price but it’s hard to trust versus a Green Bay D that gives up a 62.5% completion rate and 3.6% passing TD rate.
Top GB NFL DFS picks:
- Aaron Jones is in a nice spot with Carolina allowing 5.1 YPR and 133.4 rushing yards per game. Coming off a monster dud versus the Chargers with eight rushes for 30 yards and 3.9 FP, Jones will be a nice bounceback candidate. The Panthers give up a 6.6% rushing TD rate too.
- Davante Adams can get going in any situation but this Packers pass game with Aaron Rodgers should find tough times versus Carolina. Carolina gives up just 227 passing yards per game with an 82 coverage grade from PFF. I don’t mind Adams with his price down and some desperate positive TD regression due with zero on the year but the other guys are tough to get to.
LA Rams (23.5 implied points) at Pittsburgh Steelers (20 implied points)
Top LAR NFL DFS picks:
- I really do not like this spot for the Rams given the 30% pressure rate Pittsburgh brings to the situation. Jared Goff falls apart under pressure with a 62.4 QB rating and the Rams O-line may let him get smoked if he doesn’t turn it over first.
- Cooper Kupp is always in play even when concerned for Goff. His 11 targets per game are solid and he could see more work if Brandin Cooks were to miss due to his concussion issues. That could also make Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds more appealing but I don’t trust multiple guys to get there.
- One guy who could see more work overall, if not this week against the 35% DVOA drop in TE production Pittsburgh creates, is Gerald Everett. Everett has seen 5.5 targets per game and 0.8 deep targets per game and Everett is is as much of a deep threat as any of the other pass catchers.
- Todd Gurley is really well priced but it’s a tough spot against Pittsburgh’s run D. They allow 3.9 YPR with a 1.8% rushing TD rate. That Rams O-line will not get enough push to help him out.
Top PIT NFL DFS picks:
- Jaylen Samuels will be at least a little interesting given the preponderance of targets he saw with 13 for 73 yards in Week 9. Trey Edmunds was the better run game play with 12 carries for 73 yards but, in PPR, Samuels could have value against the 20% DVOA boost the Rams give to pass catching RBs.
- I do not trust Mason Rudolph overall though. His price is so low but he’s such an impotent player who ruins everything with the low-volume, low-risk approach they give him. Signed – A season-long Juju Smith-Schuster owner in both my leagues.
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