The Slant and Go with Chris Spags: Drew Brees and Thanksgiving NFL DFS Picks (FREE)

We’re now just a few days out for Thanksgiving and there will be as many dollars floating around in NFL DFS tournaments as there will calories in our collective arteries. There are three games to dig through for the Thursday slate so, in addition to our usual Slant and Go breakdown for Week 13, here’s a special bit side dish of my thoughts for the Thanksgiving special. Hope you guys all have a happy holiday and let’s get to the NFL DFS picks for the Thanksgiving games!

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Chicago Bears (20.8 implied points) at Detroit Lions (17.8 implied points)

 Top CHI NFL DFS picks:

  • Painful though it may be, it does seem like it’s worth a ride on the Mitch Trubisky roller coaster this Thanksgiving. Detroit allows 276 passing yards per game and blitzes at a low 16% rate, good news for the weak Chicago offensive line. Trubisky has over 40 pass attempts in his last two games and he could find production with that workload with how mediocre Detroit is in coverage. Allen Robinson is the clear top NFL DFS target but Anthony Miller should also see increased opportunity with Taylor Gabriel likely out.
  • I also wouldn’t sleep on Ben Braunecker entirely after he saw 32 routes in Week 12. The four targets aren’t great but he could have touchdown upside as a pay-down tight end option. UPDATE: Braunecker is now doubtful with concussion issues. JP Holtz seems like the primary TE discussed out there but Jesper Horsted is the TE who ran four routes and caught a target in Week 12…so if either catches a fluke TD, now you’ve at least heard their names.
  • Both David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen remain involved at running back. Cohen had six rushes and seven catches on nine targets while Montgomery saw 13 rushes and two catches on three targets in Week 12. I’d favor Cohen at his cheaper NFL DFS price but the lower-owned option could have value regardless of whom it is.

Top DET NFL DFS picks:

  • Jeff Driskel had a down week 12 with three picks and six sacks taken in a loss at Washington. And even though he had some success versus Chicago in Week 10 with 19 FP on 46 pass attempts, I like the Bears defense at their price. They generate solid pressure with a 27% rate and Detroit’s offensive line really struggled to pass block effectively versus a far inferior Washington rush. With Driskel now up to a 3.8% interception rate, I don’t have much love for him this week.
  • Marvin Jones wouldn’t be out of play for me despite my distaste for Driskel this week. Jones had just five catches for 46 yards versus Washington but he saw 11 targets. Kenny Golladay had just four catches on four targets for 42 yards despite the same 42 routes run as Jones. Jones is clearly Driskel’s preferred target and should see more beatable coverage than Golladay.
  • I could see taking a GPP stab at T.J. Hockenson. The Bears allow a 20% DVOA boost to tight ends and Hockenson saw 29 routes in Week 12 despite no catches on two targets. He hasn’t seen the most work this year (and Logan Thomas vultured a touchdown last week) but on a short NFL DFS slate, why not?
  • It may go without saying but I’m not huge on Bo Scarborough in this spot. Chicago has an 81-graded run defense from PFF and allows just 3.7 yards per carry. Scarborough saw no catches on one target in Week 12 so it’s hard to imagine more pass game involvement. I love that he got 18 carries, much more work than the good J.D. McKissic and the not-good Ty Johnson. But I don’t see this being Scarborough’s breakout spot

Buffalo Bills (19.3 implied points) at Dallas Cowboys (26.3 implied points)

 Top BUF NFL DFS picks:

  • I am going to have some Josh Allen on this NFL DFS slate. The Cowboys don’t allow a ton of passing production with just 214 passing yards per game and an 82 coverage grade from PFF. But after they mostly shut down the Patriots pass game in a marquee matchup, I think Buffalo may be sneaky on a week people may load up on the Cowboys defense. Allen has the rushing upside with 7.5 rushes per game and still takes deep shots with four targets of 20-plus yards per game.
  • John Brown always has a monster ceiling and he should have a decent speed advantage outside. I think he and Allen will be less owned than they should be on this small of an NFL DFS slate. And I wouldn’t sleep on Cole Beasley revenge either; Beasley saw eight targets on 27 routes in Week 12, two fewer than Brown.
  • Dawson Knox is cheap enough for consideration. He has a high of 11.2 FP on the year but Dallas gives up an 11% DVOA boost to tight ends. Knox saw 20 routes to Tyler Kroft’s six in Week 12.
  • Devin Singletary hasn’t exploded in a game yet but he may be a more logical play than my emotional zest for Allen and the Buffalo pass game. Singletary saw 21 carries and two targets against a stout Denver defense in Week 12, his second-most total touches of the year. Dallas has a decent 73-graded run defense by PFF but they allow 105 yards per game on the ground.

 Top DAL NFL DFS picks:

  • Dak Prescott would not be a priority play for me given the solid 90-graded pass coverage for Buffalo. Prescott’s price is pretty solid but it feels a bit like a trap. Buffalo has given up just a 2% passing touchdown rate and a 61% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks on the year.
  • I’d much prefer Ezekiel Elliott given the recently weakening Buffalo run defense. They give up 4.4 yards per carry and a 4.2% rushing touchdown rate, decent room for Elliott to get going if Dallas dedicates to the run. Elliott was able to churn out 21 carries for 86 yards with four catches on four targets for 40 yards versus New England and Buffalo somewhat resembles a slightly less good Patriots D.
  • I’d favor Michael Gallup over Amari Cooper given what should be shadow coverage from Tre’Davious White for Cooper. Randall Cobb also continues to see work with seven-plus targets in his last four games. I imagine I’ll see a bit of both those guys in lineups.

New Orleans Saints (27.8 implied points) at Atlanta Falcons (20.8 implied points)

 Top NO NFL DFS picks:

  • Drew Brees may want a shot at redemption after Atlanta really stuck it to him a few weeks back. New Orleans has the highest team total on the slate by a decent margin and Brees has the ability to take advantage if they protect him better than they did last time out. I’d be willing to bank on him after it seemed like Atlanta’s defensive improvements stalled out versus Tampa Bay.
  • I’d prefer Michael Thomas to Alvin Kamara if I had to choose. Kamara has seen 20 or more touches in the last two games but Atlanta’s 74-graded run defense has held running backs to 3.9 yards per carry on the year. Between Latavius Murray’s presence—which vultured a Kamara touchdown in Week 12—and the matchup, Thomas seems to be in a better spot. I’ll have both guys for sure but Thomas would be my NFL DFS lean.
  • Jared Cook almost certainly looks like the top tight end play on the slate if Austin Hooper is out. Cook has at least 11 FP in his last five games and had a season-high 99 yards on six catches and eight targets with a touchdown in Week 12. Cook has emerged as the number two pass catcher to Thomas.
  • That said, I wouldn’t sleep on Ted Ginn this week. Ginn saw four deep targets for a total of 160 air yards in Week 12. He only pulled down two of his five targets but Ginn seems overdue to beat someone deep. Tre’Quan Smith may draw similar ownership but saw just three targets for 39 total air yards last time out.

Top ATL NFL DFS picks:

  • The Atlanta offensive line hung Matt Ryan out to dry last week as he was sacked six times. Ryan’s 59.2 passer rating versus Tampa Bay was his worst of the year. Tampa Bay’s high blitz rate exposed the Falcons’ O-line and I would worry a lot for the pass game again versus New Orleans. Maybe Ryan bounces back given that he still averages 40 pass attempts per game. But after Atlanta upset New Orleans at the Superdome, I think the Saints bring big heat with their 28% pressure rate that would make me worry to have a lot of Ryan at his NFL DFS price.
  • Devonta Freeman being back could help keep the Saints from pinning their ears back. I wouldn’t mind using Freeman in lineups that assume Atlanta keeps it competitive, even paired with Ryan.
  • Julio Jones has yet to practice this week and that could open some opportunity if he were to miss. Calvin Ridley would see tougher coverage and that could make room for Russell Gage again to follow up his best game of the year. Christian Blake would also get more opportunity as a Jones fill-in outside. But if Jones were in, he remains the clear top NFL DFS play even with Ridley’s recent hot run and Marshon Lattimore likely to cover him. Ridley’s price is up while Jones’s is way down and I’d take that shot on Jones now.
  • If Austin Hooper misses again with his MCL issues, I’d be okay with another look at Jaeden Graham. He had a massive 58-yard play to start the game but only saw one more target besides that as the passing game fell apart. He still ran 42 routes, including ones split out wide and 27 in the slot.

Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags to see all the rest of the NFL and NBA content I’ll have with new shows and videos just about every day all week long!

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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