The Slant and Go with Chris Spags: James White and Week 14 NFL DFS Picks (FREE)

It’s a big time main slate this week to dig through for our Week 14 NFL DFS picks. We have a luckily unlucky 13 games in front of us and some really interesting options to consider. Between quality real-life games like Kansas City-New England and Baltimore-Buffalo, plus some fantasy-friendly ones, it should be a fun slate to unpack. So let’s get right into what I see so far in the Week 14 NFL DFS Slant and Go.

Before we get into all my preferred plays on the Week 14 NFL DFS main slate (and after I had to skip this part last week), let’s get back to our weekly accountability check with the Week 13 Victory Laps and Walks of Shame.

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Week 13 Victory Laps

• I mentioned in here and in all my content that Carson Wentz and the Eagles with Alshon Jeffery were a priority stack for me with DeVante Parker run back with it. That made me a good bit of cash this week with Zach Ertz routinely popping up the only thing that killed me. My preferred tight end plays of Jack Doyle and Tyler Higbee in those two man stacks would have been enough for a bink. So there’s, like, half a Walk of Shame there.
• Derrick Henry was a guy I mentioned as a “fade the matchup” pivot to Christian McCaffrey and that was a massive leverage play on the field. Henry is a beast even though he has a worrisome floor in full-point PPR formats as his price continues to rise.
• I had even more than the field of Tyler Higbee thanks to the matchup with Arizona after advocating for him throughout the entire week with Gerald Everett‘s absence. I should have included him in more Jared Goff stacks to get different, but I’m grateful I didn’t question Higbee as a minimum-priced play despite his unlikely insane outcome.

Week 13 Walks of Shame

• The Chiefs were simply better than the Raiders. As a result, Tyreek Hill was a disastrous play, because it’s tough for a wide receiver to hit a ceiling when their team is up multiple touchdowns almost instantly.
• I said Ronald Jones could have a monster day against Jacksonville’s weak run defense. He was benched for missing a blitz pickup…only to see fellow running back Peyton Barber have his best game of the year. That was not my favorite.
• I wish I had trusted Jared Goff more against Arizona’s pass defense. Goff and my guy Higbee with Robert Woods was a tournament-winning stack, particularly if paired with the Eagles/Dolphins players I liked the most. It always hurts to see the correct angles on a slate but not fully get them together in the same lineups.

Now that we got back to our important self-loathing and pats on the back, let’s get to it with the Slant and Go and my Week 14 NFL DFS picks!

Cincinnati Bengals (16 implied points) at Cleveland Browns (24.5 implied points)

Top CIN NFL DFS picks:

• Andy Dalton returned to more mediocrity with 60% passing, 243 yards and one score. This week, it’s not a bad matchup against Cleveland’s 59-graded pass coverage. The return of John Ross could also help open things up. But at this point, I’m not sure I’d stack much given Dalton’s limited upside and poor projections.
• Tyler Boyd is playable for those risky Dalton stacks or on his own. Boyd has eight or more targets in four out of his last five games and he’s capable of solid PPR upside with some recent positive regression for his touchdowns with one in each of his last two games.
• Joe Mixon has continued to see around 20 touches a game. He’s not wholly unappealing given the 124 rushing yards per game Cleveland allows. The battle of Ohio could feature the ground game heavily factored in if the Browns offense doesn’t run away with it.

Top CLE NFL DFS picks:

• Baker Mayfield stacks appear less owned this week than one might think thanks to his rising price. But with decent ownership expected for Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, Mayfield deserves more than 2% ownership. Cincinnati gives up 8.1 yards per attempt with a 52 coverage grade from PFF and that means upside. And, for what it’s worth, I’d favor the slightly more expensive Landry over Beckham given the low 7.4 air yards per target Cincinnati allows opposing quarterbacks. That defensive alignment will favor the underneath receiver.
• The run game also has big upside with Cincinnati’s 158 passing yards per game. The workload will continue to be split with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The prices are hard to get to with these guys given that fact. But there’s solid potential for both to have a decent day with Chubb likely the better option even though his 16 carries in Week 13 were his lowest since Week 5.

Washington Redskins (14.3 implied points) at Green Bay Packers (27.3 implied points)

Top WAS NFL DFS picks:

• Derrius Guice looks like a monster when given opportunity. And while his 13 touches last week weren’t the best, his 30.7 FP was massively impressive on 129 rushing yards with two touchdowns. He’s hard to trust with 13 carries and a target still going Adrian Peterson’s way, but this Green Bay matchup is a good one with a 64 run defense grade and 123 rushing yards per game allowed. Washington just needs to keep the game close.
• Dwayne Haskins remains an absolute debacle with a 14% sack rate and 4.5% interception rate. It’s not a bad matchup for the pass and I wouldn’t hate a little Terry McLaurin in builds that assume Green Bay goes off against them. But you would likely have to have Haskins at a negative salary for me to find him worth rostering at this point.

Top GB NFL DFS picks:

• Aaron Rodgers was a viable tournament-winning quarterback last week when stacked with chalky Davante Adams and the unexpected Allen Lazard. I’d be more inclined to take just Adams here, though his price jump makes him less appealing. It’s a high total and Rodgers may have a very efficient day but it’s still a situation where the pass-catching production is hard to predict outside of Adams.
• The run game is in a decent spot too given the 132 rushing yards per game Washington allows. Aaron Jones bombed again in Week 13 with 7.1 FP on 11 rushes for 18 yards and four catches on six targets for 13 yards. It was almost a 50/50 split with Jamaal Williams with his 10 carries and four catches on four targets so it may be wiser to take the cheaper Williams at this point.
• The Packers defense is also a big consideration to me. If they hop out to a lead, Green Bay can unequivocally force Haskins into mistakes. The high team total here makes me think one may break the defense’s way.

Denver Broncos (16 implied points) at Houston Texans (25.5 implied points)

Top DEN NFL DFS picks:

• Drew Lock didn’t light the world on fire with a 64% completion and 4.8 yards per attempt. But he still will give his guys a chance at production and that’s enough for me to like Courtland Sutton. Sutton led Denver with 31 routes last week and his five targets tied Jeff Heuermann for the team lead. Houston gives up a decent 5.5% passing touchdown rate with 263 passing yards per game and Sutton could see the lion’s share of that production.
• Phillip Lindsay had 17 carries and three catches on three targets versus the Chargers in Week 13. He could find much more opportunity with Houston allowing 4.6 yards per carry and a 25% DVOA boost to pass-catching running backs. Lindsay hasn’t cracked 10 FP in his last three matchups but this is likely the best of the bunch. It also helps that Houston gives up 5.4 points per red zone visit.

Top HOU NFL DFS picks:

• Denver’s defense is good enough across the board that I don’t have much love for Houston this week. DeAndre Hopkins is interesting with his price down and Denver allowing a 27% DVOA boost to WR1s. His ownership is less than some other more expensive recievers who don’t project as well and that means there could be some serious tournament logic to look his way.

Baltimore Ravens (24.3 implied points) at Buffalo Bills (18.8 implied points)

Top BAL NFL DFS picks:

• Lamar Jackson’s price is back on the way up but he’s clearly the most appealing play in this game. Buffalo allows 4.5 yards per carry and their run defense gets a 67 grade from PFF. They have a much better 90 pass coverage grade that should limit that opportunity greatly. Can Lamar run for 200 yards in a game? We may find out!

Top BUF NFL DFS picks:

• Josh Allen faces the rich man’s version of himself this week and I’m curious to see how he does. Baltimore has a league-high 52% blitz rate, something that will increase Allen’s odds of sacks and picks. I wouldn’t play him in NFL DFS but I want to see him prove me wrong.
• I think there’s a possibility Devin Singletary can run on Baltimore. Singletary has 17 and 22 touches in his last two games and Baltimore allows a reasonable 4.5 yards per carry. Singletary’s price is hardly a discount so I don’t know that I’d want a lot of him. But he seems like one pathway to Buffalo keeping this close.

Indianapolis Colts (21.8 implied points) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (24.8 implied points) 

Top IND NFL DFS picks:

• This seems like a situation where Jacoby Brissett could have some upside. Tampa Bay allows 282 passing yards per game with a 62 coverage grade from PFF. Opposing rushers continue to fail against the Bucs with just 76 rushing yards per game allowed. Brissett stacked with Week 14 target leader Jack Doyle and route leader Zach Pascal seems like a nicely priced stack with upside. Doyle had six catches for 73 yards on 12 targets while Pascal had seven grabs for 109 yards on 10 targets last week. The concentration of targets could be massive in this spot.
• Marlon Mack is questionable to play. The backfield was a mess last week with Jonathan Williams busting thanks to the work and snaps flowing away from him. It’s a bad spot anyway and Indianapolis will pass when the game script dictates it.

Top TB NFL DFS picks:

• Ronald Jones was pulled after blowing a blitz pickup which resulted in Peyton Barber’s best day of the year. That’s the risk we run each week but, thankfully, this spot versus Indianapolis doesn’t seem like one that has a ton of upside unless you really commit to the run. It is not exactly a Tampa Bay strong suit.
• It feels more like a Chris Godwin spot to me given the 7.8 air yards per target Indianapolis allows. They’ll run zone coverages that give Godwin places to work into space and that should benefit him more than Mike Evans. It still remains mostly a dice roll with these guys and Evans is likely more useful in lineups that assume Indianapolis gets up early.

Carolina Panthers (22 implied points) at Atlanta Falcons (25 implied points) 

Top CAR NFL DFS picks:

• Christian McCaffrey’s price is down slightly after his 17.2 FP disappointed as massive chalk versus Washington. I don’t have an issue going back to him this week other than the usual. He’s high-priced and there are guys with comparable upsides who can get there for cheaper. McCaffrey has seen some touchdown negative regression down the stretch and he has substantial downsides without multiple scores.
• D.J. Moore remains a decently priced play but not nearly as much of a value as previous weeks. Atlanta still gives up 7.7 yards per attempt  with a 50 coverage grade from PFF. Moore is capable of exceeding his price he remains more trustworthy than Curtis Samuel despite a much more appealing price for the latter.
• It’s also worth noting that I don’t expect much to change offensively for Carolina despite coach Ron Rivera’s firing. Norv Turner only gained more power as part of the shift to Perry Fewell as interim coach. Maybe the pass game gets a little more oomph with Turner gaining more influence, but I wouldn’t project it to be much of a difference.

Top ATL NFL DFS picks:

• Devonta Freeman will be fairly popular against Carolina’s poor run defense. Carolina has a 62 run defense grade from PFF with 5.3 yards per carry allowed. The question is if Freeman sees enough touches to meaningfully exceed value. His 17 carries and five targets versus New Orleans on Thanksgiving are encouraging so I could see having a decent amount of Freeman.
• Julio Jones has returned to practice and he could be sneaky this week. Jones had a mediocre day that opened up a ton of opportunity for Calvin Ridley in the last Falcons-Panthers game a few weeks ago. Perhaps things flow back his way with Ridley seeing tighter coverage this time out.
• Austin Hooper is back to practice this week, so ends our torrid love affair with Jaeden Graham. Hooper is in a good spot here with Carolina’s 17% DVOA boost to tight ends and should help out Matt Ryan. Ryan stacks are more appealing to me with Hooper back in the mix.

Detroit Lions (15.3 implied points) at Minnesota Vikings (28.3 implied points) 

Top DET NFL DFS picks:

• David Blough debuted to 280 yards and two scores on 38 pass attempts versus Chicago over Thanksgiving, and I don’t hate the idea of him this week. It’s a brutal team total for Blough and a risk after he put together some game film for the Vikings to prepare for. But Blough took five deep shots in that game and, as we saw Monday night, the Vikings have some very beatable corners.
• Kenny Golladay’s four catches for 158 yards were a Thanksgiving slate breaker. That said, his five targets were less than Marvin Jones’ six, Danny Amendola’s eight and T.J. Hockenson’s 11. These guys all operated with shorter routes so Golladay remains the preferred target. But it’s not crazy to me to think about a game stack if you can ignore the brutally low Vegas total.
• Bo Scarborough’s price is decent but I don’t see the upside against a Minnesota defense that allows a very low 1.7% rushing touchdown rate. His lack of pass game work makes it tough to find a ceiling or a floor.

Top MIN NFL DFS picks:

• Dalvin Cook says he’ll play after he was knocked out of Monday’s game versus Seattle. He’s a rock solid play if he’s in. If he were to miss, Alexander Mattison is the play of the week. Detroit’s run defense is poor with a 63 grade from PFF and Minnesota’s commitment to the run with a 49% run rate will give one of these guys huge upside.
• Stefon Diggs looks good if Adam Thielen is out again. Things get dicier if Thielen is back in. Detroit gives up 280 passing yards per game with a 5.6% passing touchdown rate so I’d watch this situation closely in consideration of Kirk Cousins. Kyle Rudolph would be the guy I’d stack Diggs with if Thielen sits.
  

San Francisco 49ers (21 implied points) at New Orleans Saints (23.5 implied points)

Top SF NFL DFS picks:

• George Kittle is the only guy I like on this side. New Orleans has a solid run defense that gives up 89 rushing yards per game with an 87 grade from PFF. And with Raheem Mostert’s monster 19 carries for 146 yards and a score versus Baltimore, I don’t see how he doesn’t work into muddy up the Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida backfield (assuming Breida is back in). Kittle is a risk to stay in and block more given New Orleans’ 28% pressure rate, but his being a tight end gives him potential relative to the position that guys like Emmanuel Sanders or Deebo Samuel don’t have when in tough matchups.

Top NO NFL DFS picks:

• The prices are down but I do not support going above the chalk ownership for Alvin Kamara or Michael Thomas. San Francisco gives up just 134 passing yards per game with a 92 coverage grade from PFF. Thomas can be a decent value but I very much don’t expect a ceiling spot. Similarly, San Francisco offers a 55% DVOA decrease to pass-catching backs. That makes it tough for Kamara to be his best self despite the 117 rushing yards per game that the 49ers allow. I’d have some of both thanks to their prices but neither is a lock or anything close to it.

Miami Dolphins (20 implied points) at NY Jets (25 implied points) 

Top MIA NFL DFS picks:

• DeVante Parker is the guy I’d look at first and foremost. Parker was second in the league in air yards and actual yards in Week 13 with 176 and 159 respectively. He also has over 10 targets in his last four games. The Jets’ pass coverage isn’t as bad as it has a reputation for with a 71 coverage grade on PFF. But Parker can get going in any matchup and I wouldn’t ignore Parker as a result.
• It’s not anything close to a good run game matchup with the Jets allowing 2.9 yards per carry with an 82 run defense grade. I wouldn’t have Patrick Laird or Myles Gaskin as a result. Kalen Ballage is out for the year so these guys may have some use in one of our last few weeks. But this ain’t it, chief.

Top NYJ NFL DFS picks:

• Sam Darnold crashed back down to Earth with 10.5 FP versus Cincinnati following three solid efforts in a row. He still had 48 pass attempts so I don’t hate the idea of giving him a shot here. He’s not a priority play by any stretch but we’ve seen 31 FP upside from him just the other week.
• Robby Anderson has seen more success thanks to better blocking from the Jets’ brutal offensive line. Anderson had 173 air yards in Week 13 and I’d be willing to go back to him with his 10 targets also tops on the team last time out. His 50 routes were also just one less than Jamison Crowder’s team leading 51.
• LeVeon Bell remains so loosely involved in the offense that it’s hard to love him at his price. He can find opportunity with the 144 rushing yards per game Miami allows. But the Jets run 38% of the time and Bell has been targeted less than even Ryan Griffin when running routes in the pass game. It’s hard to imagine a Bell explosion you need in GPPs even if he has another decent day as he did versus Miami a few weeks back.

LA Chargers (23 implied points) at Jacksonville Jaguars (20 implied points)

Top LAC NFL DFS picks:

• One of Melvin Gordon or Austin Ekeler should smash Jacksonville in this spot. Their offensive line is brutal with a 49 run blocking grade from PFF. But everyone runs on Jacksonville with the 5.1 yards per carry they allow. Gordon saw 20 carries with three targets versus Denver while Ekeler had nine carries and five targets. I’d favor Gordon but it’s not crazy that either goes off.
• The pass game is also not in a horrible spot with Jacksonville’s 49 coverage grade from PFF. I think it’s a sneaky Mike Williams spot after he had 142 air yards on seven targets last week. His price is fairly low while Keenan Allen seems appropriately priced.
• I still wouldn’t be terribly inclined for a full stack with how up and down Philip Rivers has been this year. His 3.4% interception rate this season is worse than almost every quarterback on the slate.

Top JAX NFL DFS picks:

• Gardner Minshew is the starter for the rest of the season and he could be able to get something going against the Chargers’ 70% completion rate allowed. He’s still not a guy to expect big upside from but on a projection basis he looks decent.
• D.J. Chark would still be the guy I’d want the most but the prices on the receivers aren’t the best. Minshew takes less deep shots than Nick Foles so perhaps that makes Dede Westbrook a dart throw.
• Leonard Fournette feels underpriced even though his touchdowns haven’t positively regressed at all. Fournette has 11 and 12 targets in his last two games, good for nine catches in both. The Chargers allow a 19% boost to pass-catching backs and that could mean smash spot potential for Fournette.

Pittsburgh Steelers (23 implied points) at Arizona Cardinals (20.5 implied points)

Top PIT NFL DFS picks:

• Arizona now allows 308 passing yards per game with a 71% completion rate. This is why Devlin Hodges now has a stupidly high price point. He’s not a great player but he averages 8.7 yards per attempt and he’s been allowed to take some deep shots. Hodges and James Washington combined for 111 yards versus Cleveland last week while Diontae Johnson had 95 air yards thrown his way as well. Between these two and Vance McDonald in Arizona’s tight end funnel spot that saw Tyler Higbee go for over 100 yards and a score in Week 13, I’ll have some stacks and pray. It seems like a smarter option to take just the one-off receiver plays individually and hope one breaks out.
• Benny Snell led the team with 16 carries in Week 13. He also had one catch on one target. Jaylen Samuels had seven rushes and two catches on two targets. It’s not a killer run game matchup so it’s tough to want Snell at his elevated price point.

Top ARI NFL DFS picks:

• Pittsburgh’s defense is just good enough that I don’t think I’d want anything from Arizona. Maybe Kenyan Drake given that he seems like the clear-cut lead back currently? I don’t hate Christian Kirk but the price isn’t the best for him. It all feels like a stretch.

Kansas City Chiefs (22.8 implied points) at New England Patriots (25.8 implied points) 

Top KC NFL DFS picks:

• Tyreek Hill did not explode versus Oakland as everything else the Raiders stink at helped Kansas City easily put them away. But I’d be okay taking some stabs at Hill this week. It’s a bad matchup with the 164 passing yards per game that New England allows, but Hill is fast enough to beat any matchup. I’m not as confident in Sammy Watkins with how he’s receded into the background.
• Travis Kelce is likely the more appealing receiving play to me. New England only has a 10% DVOA decrease in tight end production compared to a 37% decrease for WR1s. It’s kind of a rugged spot where I could see Kelce working against softer coverage inside and racking up a team high in targets.
• LeSean McCoy would be the running back I’m most inclined to trust this week, if any. McCoy had his best game of the year in Week 3’s game versus Baltimore which seems like the closest comparison to New England. His price is decent enough to take that stab with the 4.4 yards per carry New England allows.
• Patrick Mahomes can get going in any spot and I’ll have some exposure to full stacks here in the hopes defense doesn’t matter. But on paper, this looks like a brutal spot where Mahomes will be under duress all day against New England’s 27% pressure rate.

Top NE NFL DFS picks:

• I am hugely intrigued by James White this week. He led the backfield with 14 carries in Week 13 along with eight catches on 11 targets. With how ineffective Sony Michel has been this year, I think New England may give White more work down the stretch. The opportunity is huge given the 141 rushing yards per game Kansas City allows and right now White projects for under 5% ownership.
• Julian Edelman remains the only Patriots receiver to trust with a team-leading 50 routes in Week 13. White and Jakobi Meyers were tied for second with 40 routes each while Phillip Dorsett had 39. I wouldn’t hate mixing in a sprinkle of Meyers and Dorsett with Tom Brady stacks featuring one of White or Edelman.

Tennessee Titans (25 implied points) at Oakland Raiders (22 implied points) 

Top TEN NFL DFS picks:

• Derrick Henry is still in play for me despite his lack of pass game involvement. Henry has at least 19 rushes and 149 rushing yards in his last three games. Oakland’s run defense is decent with a 70 grade from PFF with 4.0 yards per carry allowed, but Henry’s ability and Tennessee’s commitment to the run is a whole other ball game.
• Ryan Tannehill barely throws the ball with 22 or fewer attempts in his last three games. Oakland’s pass defense is weak with a 53 coverage grade from PFF with a 6.7% passing touchdown rate allowed. But if Tannehill doesn’t throw, it’s hard to see him capitalize. Maybe he does enough to give A.J. Brown some upside but I don’t see why the game plan changes in this situation unless Oakland pulls ahead somehow.

Top OAK NFL DFS picks:

• I don’t really like much on this side. Tennessee has an 89-graded run defense from PFF that it seems unlikely Josh Jacobs meaningfully excels against. His ownership currently looks too high for a guy in this poor of a spot.
• Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller could be in play with Tennessee’s pass defense much weaker with 260 passing yards per game allowed. But Derek Carr has still yet to crack 24 FP on the year and even if I played Williams or Waller, it’d be more likely to include them as one-offs rather than a full stack. Waller in particular could be valid after he had one of his rare outlier games trailing Kansas City last time with 20 FP on seven catches for 100 yards. Tennessee can build a lead here on Henry’s back and Waller could be a part of helping them claw back.

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