We’re in our final three weeks of the NFL DFS season and we’ve got to make this stretch run count. Last week saw a ton of late breaking injuries as well as some guys who went out during games and killed a large chunk of lineups out there. That’s likely to continue to occur with the miles these guys put on their bodies in the name of football so let’s all do our best to be smart with exposures and leave no stone unturned down the stretch. Are you ready for the exciting world of backups winning tournaments? Of course you are! So let’s get right into what I see so far in the Week 15 NFL DFS Slant and Go.
Before we get into all my preferred plays on the Week 15 NFL DFS main slate, let’s get back to our weekly accountability check with the Week 14 Victory Laps and Walks of Shame.
Week 14 Victory Laps
- I’ve been on the right side of Derrick Henry‘s recent hot run, which I’ll talk about down below. But I advocated for ownership for him once again despite his rising price and some logical gaps with him on full-point PPR sites given his lack of pass game involvement. Henry was a monster yet again.
- Diontae Johnson was someone I mentioned who had big opportunity against Arizona’s pass game. I preferred him over James Washington and Vance McDonald and Johnson ended up a top value play on the week. Good job Johnson, mediocre job by Duck Hodges.
- Robby Anderson was a dumpster fire the previous time I recommended him in this column but he went big for us last week. This week against the Ravens on Thursday night will be brutal but Anderson can be that GPP-winning threat again depending upon his Week 16 and 17 matchups.
Week 14 Walks of Shame
- Jack Doyle was one of my preferred tight end plays of the week in stacks with Jacoby Brissett and Zach Pascal as well as on his own. Two of those three parts worked. One of them did not. You can guess which is which. But at least Doyle got paid before he totally messed the bed for us all.
- I tried to read the tea leaves with New England’s running backs and James White in particular. And while White was the clear best back again, he barely saw any work until New England was in desperation mode in the second half. White should get ALL of the touches, but they simply won’t give him the love so we can all enjoy another week of Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel impotenting the way up front.
- Can I control the health of people’s hamstrings and brains with this column? I’m going to err on the side of probably not. But if I could run back my exposure to Mike Evans and DeVante Parker, I’d do that one in a heartbeat. Here’s hoping we see more of Parker before the year ends.
Now that we got back to our important self-loathing and pats on the back, let’s get to it with the Slant and Go and my Week 15 NFL DFS picks!
Miami Dolphins (21.5 implied points) at NY Giants (25 implied points)
Top MIA NFL DFS picks:
- Ryan Fitzpatrick is priced up fairly high and that’s a tough pill to swallow if DeVante Parker is out. Parker left Miami’s Week 14 game against the Jets with a concussion and has been limited in practice thus far this week. A stack with guys like Allen Hurns, Mike Gesicki and Isaiah Ford could be appealing from a price perspective. But it’s very hard to trust based on current projections.
- Isaiah Ford may be a top value play if Parker is out though. Ford had six catches for 92 yards from nine targets on 34 routes run in Week 14, the vast majority of which came after Parker was knocked out. Ford is someone I’ll definitely have if Parker misses the game while Mack Hollins would likely get a bump up the depth chart if also concussed Albert Wilson misses too.
- This is a better spot for Patrick Laird against the Giants, particularly in the pass game. Laird ran 27 routes last week which earned him four catches on four targets. The Giants are a decent run defense with 3.8 yards per carry allowed and a 79 run defense grade from PFF but they give up an 11% DVOA boost to pass-catching backs. As a value play, he’s not bad.
Top NYG NFL DFS picks:
- Saquon Barkley looks like he’ll be a top-owned play this week and he projects well according to Awesemo. I’d be more okay with him as chalk if Daniel Jones misses given how Eli Manning’s lack of mobility should give Barkley more checkdown opportunities overall. Jones returned to practice as of writing this column and reportedly “feels much better.” While Jones’ status doesn’t make or break Barkley for me, I really don’t see landing above the field’s ownership for Saquon if Jones is in.
- Darius Slayton intrigues me regardless of who’s at quarterback. Slayton had a team-high 127 air yards versus Philadelphia, though most of his damage came on two catches. His eight targets were also a team high and he’s seen at least seven targets in his last four games. Slayton is the most dynamic receiver for the Giants and his price is low for how good he’s been this year.
- I’d favor Golden Tate over Sterling Shepard if Jones is back in at quarterback, the inverse if it’s Manning. But either way, I’m open to stacking the Giants this week. It may be even more appealing as leverage on Barkley.
Chicago Bears (18 implied points) at Green Bay (23 implied points)
Top CHI NFL DFS picks:
- Mitchell Trubisky was reborn in his last game versus Dallas thanks largely to a season-high 10 rush attempts that resulted in 63 yards and a touchdown. During the game, the announcers mentioned that his emphasis on running was designed to ease his burdens in the pass game and I’m intrigued by this version of Trubisky. He’s not a guy to trust but I don’t hate a little ownership with how Green Bay can score and give up big games on D.
- Allen Robinson remains the top target but Anthony Miller is in the mix fairly strongly. Robinson just sees more reliable deep pass work week to week whereas Miller feels more like he competes with Tarik Cohen for intermediate distance looks.
- It kind of seems like a David Montgomery spot given the 4.7 yards per carry with a 64 run defense grade from Green Bay. Montgomery saw 20 carries last game and he could benefit if Green Bay’s offense stalls out.
Top GB NFL DFS picks:
- Even though Chicago has given up some production, they’re still not a defense I like to target if I can choose not to. This is a monster slate and I can’t hate on some Davante Adams generally but no one really pops out to me projection or price-wise.
New England Patriots (25.3 implied points) at Cincinnati Bengals (15.3 implied points)
Top NE NFL DFS picks:
- Once again, James White looked like the best back for New England but he barely saw work until the second half last time out. This is a great rushing spot with the 4.9 YPR Cincinnati allows but I don’t trust the workload for anyone. I don’t mind a little bit of White but he was an albatross for me last week while Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead got repeated opportunities against a comparably bad run defense.
- Julian Edelman looks fine in the pass game and maybe he could benefit if New England tries to get well in this winnable spot against Cincinnati. No other receiver saw over 50 air yards while Edelman had 115 against Kansas City and his 12 targets were triple any other receiver besides White.
- Tom Brady stinks this year but he could very much take a morale builder in this spot. I don’t buy him meaningfully excelling here but it’s not a crazy thought to go to him with no ownership after a hugely disappointing effort.
- The Patriots defense is a consideration with their defense still rock solid on the year. Cincinnati’s offensive line has gotten better results recently with only three sacks allowed in their last two games but Andy Dalton can throw a pick due to a light breeze.
Top CIN NFL DFS picks:
- It’d be Joe Mixon or bust for me here. New England is likely to oppress everything but Mixon was good last week again with 23 carries for 146 yards and a TD along with three catches for 40 receiving yards. He could see the work but his price is high enough that it seems unlikely he thrives barring a weird outcome with New England’s offense stalling out.
Houston Texans (23.5 implied points) at Tennessee Titans (26.5 implied points)
Top HOU NFL DFS picks:
- Deshaun Watson could be due for a bounce back after the Texans were walloped at home by the Broncos. Tennessee’s pass defense is weaker than their run defense with 260 passing yards per game allowed and a middling 67 coverage grade from PFF. Watson and DeAndre Hopkins are a stack who’ll be lower owned than they possibly should be with some shootout potential in this matchup.
- Will Fuller could miss again and Kenny Stills disappointed without him last week. It may have been the tough matchup but Jordan Akins saw the biggest jump in opportunity with 118 air yards on nine targets. Keke Coutee’s eight targets were just behind him. I don’t hate going back to Stills after he disappointed but it’s clearly not a lock that he sees Fuller’s opportunity when Fuller is out.
Top TEN NFL DFS picks:
- Ryan Tannehill continues to have big fantasy upside with 31.5 FP on the road against Oakland in Week 14. On paper this seems like an equally obvious spot for pass game upside with Houston’s 266 passing yards per game allowed with a 5.8% passing touchdown rate. With his price as well as clear top receiver A.J. Brown’s up exponentially, I don’t think I’ll get there much. But there could be some “pay up to be contrarian” logic.
- It’s not a smash spot on paper for Derrick Henry but he just keeps putting up over 100 yards and at least a touchdown each week. Houston’s run defense gives up a middling 4.5 yards per carry with a 74 run defense grade from PFF and Henry now has five straight games of at least 24.9 FP. He seems to have some logical risk in full-point PPR formats but I can’t really hate on him at this point.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (25.5 implied points) at Detroit Lions (22 implied points)
Top TB NFL DFS picks:
- Loughy and I speculated on the NFL Strategy Show that Jameis Winston’s broken thumb on his throwing hand may somehow be an asset. He’s been a 61% passer with his thumb fully healthy so can that realistically get worse? But ultimately if Winstonis deemed healthy enough to play, I’m in on him. Detroit’s defense isn’t good and gives up 277 passing yards per game with a 52 coverage grade from PFF. The loss of Mike Evans will change the equation but it won’t stop Winston from slinging. And again, his broken thumb being a Rookie of the Year scenario is not entirely out of question.
- Chris Godwin seems like the logical receiver to target with Evans out. But Indianapolis showed what a logical defense will do now, specifically double-teaming Godwin and making the other receivers beat them. Godwin saw just a smattering of targets in the second half while guys like Justin Watson, Breshad Perriman and O.J. Howard were more involved. Indianapolis is a logical defense. Detroit may not be. I’m okay with Godwin but I do imagine I’ll have lineups with the other guys on the chance Detroit isn’t totally incompetent and decides to sell out to stop Godwin.
- Watson would be preferred Bucs receiver in non-Godwin equations, assuming Scotty Miller is out again. Watson led the team with 91 air yards, all after Evans went out. He also ran 34 routes with eight targets on those routes. Watson is a top value to me with no Evans and no chance of Miller stealing his snaps.
Top DET NFL DFS picks:
- David Blough showed his third string nature with 10.2 FP and two picks versus Minnesota. This is a FAR better spot so I don’t hate him as a concept. Tampa Bay is a poor pass defense who gives up 279 passing yards per game. Blough can get results if he throws up 40 passes like he did last game.
- Kenny Golladay had a passable game as a contrarian option in Week 14 with six catches for 58 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. His 80 air yards led the team too and he’s clearly the highest upside weapon for Blough’s mediocre arsenal.
- Logan Thomas led the tight ends in routes with 22 with T.J. Hockenson sidelined and he also had four targets in that run. Jesse James is less involved. Neither is a good play but with this matchup and near minimum prices, I get a stab and would go more Thomas’s way.
Seattle Seahawks (27.3 implied points) at Carolina Panthers (21.3 implied points)
Top SEA NFL DFS picks:
- I mostly like the run game with Chris Carson. Rashaad Penny is out for the year with a knee injury and Carson now can return to the bell cow role he had in a monster spot. Carolina allows 5.3 yards per carry with 139 rushing yards per game and a bottom-tier 60 run defense grade from PFF. Carson can see big work and bigger results.
- I’m not terribly into Russell Wilson or Tyler Lockett with their prices where they are. A stack of these guys with D.K. Metcalf would be interesting leverage on Carson if he ends up a chalk play of the week but it’s not the most logical to me.
Top CAR NFL DFS picks:
- Christian McCaffrey’s price is moving downwards after two games of 24.5 FP and 17.2 FP where he’s continued to have 100 yard days but no touchdowns. He could see some positive regression against the 5.1% rushing touchdown rate that Seattle allows and, with his ownership trending down, I’ll be right there with ownership right around the field again. We know the upside and we’ve seen the floor in these last two games.
- D.J. Moore looks fine with his price heading back downwards. He remains highly targeted and involved with 9.3 targets per game and his projection looks the best by far of Carolina.
- Ian Thomas came through as a less chalky option by the time lineups locked. Thomas led the team with 118 air yards and 10 targets and he’s definitely in play if Greg Olsen misses again.
Philadelphia Eagles (22.3 implied points) at Washington Redskins (17.8 implied points)
Top PHI NFL DFS picks:
- Carson Wentz is losing weapons by the week but it’s another decent spot on paper for him. I could see taking a stab at some stacks given the low prices for Nelson Agholor, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward with Alshon Jeffery
- The only target you can really trust is likely Zach Ertz. He has at least 11 targets in four out of his last five games. His down game in that stretch was when he was injured and Jeffery went off against Miami.
- Josh Perkins isn’t an insane play after he saw 20 routes following Jeffery’s injury. He ran slot routes and had five targets during that stretch. Adjusting for price, he may be at least as appealing as Dallas Goedert.
- The Eagles defense plays Dwayne Haskins with his 4.4% interception rate and 55% completion rate. They’re in play.
Top WAS NFL DFS picks:
- Derrius Guice is out and I could see a little bit of Adrian Peterson. Washington has to remain committed to the run because of how bad Dwayne Haskins has been. It’s a bad run game matchup with Philadelphia allowing 90 rushing yards per game, but Peterson isn’t totally insane.
- Terry McLaurin can find success with the Eagles’ error prone secondary. McLaurin cobbled together 15.7 FP on four catches for 57 yards and a touchdown with Haskins’ awful throws. It’s hard to see McLaurin smashing with Haskins’ inaccuracy but it’s not impossible.
Denver Broncos (18.3 implied points) at Kansas City Chiefs (28.3 implied points)
Top DEN NFL DFS picks:
- Drew Lock went nuts in Week 14 with 309 passing yards for three touchdowns and a pick, good for 27.9 FP. He’ll likely have to throw more here but I’m not sure that I’d buy in with his price up. Lock made some nice throws but he’s far from a finished product. He has obvious targets with Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant but he’s not likely to find as much YAC success as he did with the 173 he had last week.
- Phillip Lindsay is an interesting play with the 5.1 yards per carry Kansas City allows along with a 59 run defense grade from PFF. They can be beaten on the ground and Lindsay has seen the work without the results lately.
Top KC NFL DFS picks:
- Denver’s defense has been good enough that there shouldn’t be a ton of popularity for these guys overall. There’s never an issue with a Patrick Mahomes stack with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce and this team total does seem fairly high for the matchup. I wouldn’t mind going above the field on a stack of those core Chiefs but I’m less inclined to expect much from the fringe pieces.
- The run game also looks like a dumpster fire with Spencer Ware back in the mix for Kansas City. It’s hard to see anyone meaningfully exploding amongst him, LeSean McCoy and Darwin Thompson but the prices could lure some folks in.
Jacksonville Jaguars (19.5 implied points) at Oakland Raiders (26 implied points)
Top JAX NFL DFS picks:
- Leonard Fournette crashed back down to Earth against the Chargers but he’s in another strong spot against Oakland. One would think this game will be more competitive than that game ended up being and Fournette remains involved with the run and the pass. Oakland is decent versus the run with 4.1 yards per carry and a 71 run defense grade from PFF but they’ve been susceptible to volume, as seen last week with Derrick Henry.
- Gardner Minshew hasn’t been great since taking over the starting job but he has opportunity here. D.J. Chark missed practice to start the week but one would hope he’ll be healthy. Minshew, Chark and a guy like Dede Westbrook or Chris Conley will be on no one’s radar as a stack. But this spot is a really good one if Jacksonville commits to let Minshew sling it.
Top OAK NFL DFS picks:
- DeAndre Washington is the play of the week to me if Josh Jacobs is out again. Jacksonville gives up 5.3 yards per carry and 141 rushing yards per game with a 63 run defense grade. Washington saw 14 rushing attempts and six catches on seven targets against a much tougher Tennessee run defense. Washington could be a slate breaker if he sees that workload again (and Jacobs is comparably appealing with less value if he somehow gets back in).
- I hate the Oakland pass game and can’t imagine I’ll be there much despite it being a decent matchup. Darren Waller is fine but everybody else stinks. The decent price on Tyrell Williams is begrudgingly OK too but he’s exceedingly touchdown-dependent.
Cleveland Browns (25 implied points) at Arizona Cardinals (23 implied points)
Top CLE NFL DFS picks:
- I like this stack with Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham a lot. We saw a few weeks ago in the matchup versus Miami that Cleveland will empty the chambers in games where they can. Arizona allows 294 passing yards per game with a league-worst 34 coverage grade from PFF. This is the kind of game where these guys can all pad their stats to make this season look like less of an abject failure than it is.
- David Njoku returned last week and ran nine routes. I’d be reluctant to take the bait versus Arizona’s tight end-funnel defense with his workload super insecure right now but his price is up for the matchup.
- Kareem Hunt should continue to see solid pass game work while he’s unequivocally cut into Nick Chubb’s run game opportunity. Chubb had a season low 15 carries last week while Hunt had a season high of nine. Neither looks super playable at their elevated prices.
Top ARI NFL DFS picks:
- The run game looks more appealing to me given Cleveland’s weak 4.8 yards per carry allowed with a 64 run defense grade from PFF. The issue is that Arizona has its crowded backfield where Kenyan Drake even as the clear lead back saw just 14 touches last week. David Johnson had just three carries to Drake’s 11 so it’s possible Drake has a shot. But the volume isn’t there meaningfully enough for me to trust on a slate of this size.
- Christian Kirk remains the most appealing receiver to me and I’m okay with him again. His price isn’t great but he’ll see opportunity, particularly if the Cleveland passing offense has the success I think it can. Larry Fitzgerald is still running routes at a comparable rate with both running 38 in Week 14 but Kirk sees a much better depth of target.
Minnesota Vikings (23.5 implied points) at LA Chargers (21 implied points)
Top MIN NFL DFS picks:
- Dalvin Cook intrigues me after he wasn’t needed much last time out. Cook yielded to Alex Mattison down the stretch the second the game seemed well in hand and he finished with 15.5 FP. I find it hard to believe this matchup against the Chargers will be as easily handled. With Cook’s price on the downswing, I don’t hate going his way.
- Adam Thielen returned to practice and that could make for a more appealing stack with Kirk Cousins and Stefon Diggs. The prices aren’t the most appealing with the Chargers fairly competent in pass defense. Thielen’s price could put him in play if he’s a full go and I’d favor him as a one-off over the full stack.
Top LAC NFL DFS picks:
- Austin Ekeler went nuts in Week 14 while Melvin Gordon also saw steady work and results against a far weaker Jacksonville defense. Minnesota gives up just 4.2 yards per carry with a low 1.6% rushing touchdown rate so I’d be more inclined to rely on Gordon’s volume and traditional carries.
- The Minnesota pass defense has shown some signs of life lately and is now up to an 86 pass coverage grade from PFF. You could still talk me into Keenan Allen or some dart tosses with Mike Williams but the 45% DVOA decrease the Chargers give to tight ends makes this not my ideal Hunter Henry spot.
LA Rams (25 implied points) at Dallas Cowboys (24 implied points)
Top LAR NFL DFS picks:
- Todd Gurley has three out of four games over 18.5 FP with at least 19 carries in them and a high of 25 carries. The Rams are in do-or-die mode for their season and Gurley should continue to see massive workloads in all of their competitive games. Gurley’s price is very appealing and his projections industry-wide currently seem low enough that his ownership could stay reasonable.
- Tyler Higbee led the team in targets and air yards with 11 targets and 143 air yards in Week 14. Gerald Everett has yet to return to practice and, if he misses again, I might be inclined to trust this new consolidated role for Higbee. Everett’s return would kill the Higbee renaissance. Higbee ran just 26 routes last game, third behind Robert Woods’ 32 and Gurley’s 28.
- Woods seems to have supplanted Cooper Kupp as the go-to receiver and I’d be more inclined for the cheaper Woods. If Everett misses, a Jared Goff-Woods-Higbee stack looks good against a Dallas defense that seems to regularly give up good performances to opposing quarterbacks.
Top DAL NFL DFS picks:
- Ezekiel Elliott seems a little overpriced but he looks fine with a steady workload. The Rams’ run defense is more vulnerable than it seems with a 49 grade from PFF and Zeke saw 19 carries and five targets with Tony Pollard out last week.
- Dak Prescott worries me a little as the currently projected top-owned quarterback of the week. The Rams held Russell Wilson to 11.6 FP last week on 36 pass attempts and their 84 graded pass rush with a 30% pressure rate seems like the kind of pressure that cripples Dallas’s pass offense in particular.
- I’d favor Michael Gallup to Amari Cooper adjusting for their prices and higher ownership expected for Cooper. But they both are relatively fine with neither Jalen Ramsey nor Troy Hill appreciably better or worse than the other defensively.
Atlanta Falcons (17.5 implied points) at San Francisco 49ers (29 implied points)
Top ATL NFL DFS picks:
- I know what Drew Brees and the Saints did to San Francisco. That was not a road game and that was not the Falcons. I could see an attempt for some Julio Jones with Atlanta likely to trail. But these are two teams going opposite directions and San Francisco could very much ruin every aspect of Atlanta with their mostly middling offensive line.
Top SF NFL DFS picks:
- I guess this is Raheem Mostert’s backfield now? Mostert led the running backs in carries but he, Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman all saw snaps and touches. It’s very much a hot hand situation and the hot hand has been Mostert by a large margin.
- Despite the monster Week 14 effort at New Orleans, I wouldn’t point chase Emmanuel Sanders in a game where his best efforts are likely less needed. Sanders led the team with 37 routes, 138 air yards and 157 receiving yards last week but I’d be more interested in George Kittle on a week-to-week basis. I’d also favor Kittle to Deebo Samuel.
- Regardless of the situation, I don’t see Jimmy Garoppolo excelling again. Garoppolo tends to thrive when needed most and San Francisco is a 12-point favorite at home. Garoppolo with a stack run back with at least Julio Jones is a consideration. But if Atlanta gets crushed, you’ll see a lot of runs for the backs and little upside for Garoppolo.
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