It’s the end of the season so we’re loaded with 15 games to dig through for this round of NFL DFS picks. There are playoff machinations, a bevy of injuries, and some milestones for some key players to hit. There are also a lot of teams with nothing to play for whose motivations can be questions. I’ll walk through each game and explain what I see in terms of all in the above as well as the plays I’m most interested in as we get to the finish line of our 17 week football journey. With 15 games on the main slate, you’ll have a behemoth of a column in front of you so let’s cut to the chase with the Week 17 NFL DFS Slant and Go.
Atlanta Falcons (23.5 implied points) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (24.5 implied points)
Top ATL NFL DFS picks:
- It’s a lower team total than you’d expect for the matchup but this is still one where I love the pass game. Julio Jones has been questionable to start the week but if he goes, it’s hard to not want some exposure. He has 15 and 20 targets in the last two weeks and he could smash even if the game is meaningless.
- Austin Hooper looks fine as another target with Jones in a Matt Ryan stack. He saw a comparable workload to usual with seven catches on nine targets in Week 16. Hooper could contribute more in this situation with it a much less appealing spot for Devonta Freeman.
Top TB NFL DFS picks:
- Jameis Winston looks fine again even though he was a disaster last game. He had four picks but still threw 48 times for 335 yards and one would expect that to continue to be the case if he’s in. He practiced in full on Thursday even though he’s still marked as questionable.
- Chris Godwin has yet to participate in practice this week so he seems likely to be out. Breshad Perriman, Justin Watson and O.J. Howard have big opportunity again if so. Howard had seven targets and 133 air yards in Week 16. Watson had 10 targets and 161 air yards. Perriman had 12 targets and 201 air yards. People won’t play these guys as much this week after a down game but that is a massive potential workload if Winston is just a bit less inaccurate this week.
Green Bay Packers (27.8 implied points) at Detroit Lions (15.3 implied points)
Top GB NFL DFS picks:
- Jamaal Williams hasn’t practiced to start the week so we could see another upside day for Aaron Jones. Detroit allows teams to do whatever they want offensively and Green Bay really committed to the run and Jones in a much tougher spot versus Minnesota. Jones’ price isn’t the best but would be more palatable if Williams missed the game.
- I’d be more inclined for just Davante Adams than a full Green Bay stack. Adams has over 24.4 fantasy points in two out of his last three games and the price is solid. The risk here is that Green Bay could blow the doors off of Detroit without him needing to be summoned fully into duty.
- Allen Lazard saw a lot of work last week with nine targets and 121 air yards on 35 routes run. He’d be the guy to consider if you were dying to stack Green Bay’s offense but I’d be less inclined to do that without a Lions player run back.
Top DET NFL DFS picks:
- Kenny Golladay is the only Lion I’d consider but I really don’t like anyone here. Green Bay’s run defense has turned things around over the last month and Kerryon Johnson’s 10 carries in his return to the lineup didn’t stir up much. Golladay is the one guy who could break a big play with awful David Blough targeting him a lot. Golladay had 12 targets and 136 air yards in Week 16 and that could give him a shot despite the awful passer throwing to him.
Chicago Bears (17.8 implied points) at Minnesota Vikings (18.8 implied points)
Top CHI NFL DFS picks:
- Allen Robinson is a perfectly fine player but I don’t imagine getting there at his price point. This isn’t a particularly discounted Bears team given the matchup and they’re playing for nothing in a road game against a tough defense.
Top MIN NFL DFS picks:
- Mike Boone day was an unmitigated disaster for many season-long players and those of us who dabbled in the final Monday Night Football Showdown slate of the year. Alex Mattison is questionable and could start. I still wouldn’t love either. Mattison is intriguing because he’s a beast who has yet to be fully allowed to thrive. But it’s hard to trust him to get a full workload and the matchup stinks too. You could count me in for a flier or two if he ended up active, ditto for Boone if Mattison missed.
- The Vikings are locked into the sixth seed so I don’t find much motivation for them here to get outside of their comfort zone. That’s why it’d be run game or bust with maybe some interest in the Vikings defense in the hopes of catching one last bad Mitch Trubisky day before this season is a wrap.
Cleveland Browns (23 implied points) at Cincinnati Bengals (20.5 implied points)
Top CLE NFL DFS picks:
- Jarvis Landry projects as a chalk play this week and I guess that’s fine? His price seems decent and he’s as involved in the offense as ever. But Odell Beckham is still there at a comparable price and I think I’d err on his side. Beckham’s big play ability, despite his ongoing injury woes, is too much to ignore against a Bengals team that gives up almost 400 yards per game.
- The run game intrigues me a bit more given how talented the backs are and the matchup against Cincinnati. The lion’s share of work continues to go to Nick Chubb and he could do damage here if he sees between 15 and 20 touches. Kareem Hunt is cheaper and I don’t mind a stab his way either. But Chubb gets first crack and I’d favor that with him projected at under 10% ownership.
Top CIN NFL DFS picks:
- Joe Mixon destroyed so many of the NFL DFS community’s lineups in Week 16 and it’s hard to get back on the train. But there’s a but: he still saw 23 touches despite his South Beach “flu”. I’m willing to go back to Mixon after his highly public failure. He projects for under 5% ownership and had over 130 rushing yards his previous two games. Cleveland’s run defense has a bad 57 grade from PFF and gives up 142.4 rushing yards per game.
- It may shock you to hear I shan’t be point chasing Andy Dalton after he went for 396 passing yards and four touchdowns despite just 59% passing against Miami. Cleveland’s pass defense isn’t great either but that was an aberration seemingly designed to hurt all the people who believed in Mixon. With Dalton’s price up, I’m not dying to chase those points.
- John Ross with 283 air yards on 13 targets in Week 16 or Tyler Boyd with 158 air yards on 15 targets are decent one-off options to me. But I’d still favor a return to Mixon after he disappointed so many people. The game script with Miami eviscerating Cincinnati early was too perfectly aligned for a pathway to upside for these guys. Boyd’s too expensive to trust for his normal role and I couldn’t advocate to anyone to rely on Ross other than as a GPP dart toss.
Los Angeles Chargers (18.3 implied points) at Kansas City Chiefs (27.3 implied points)
Top LAC NFL DFS picks:
- Melvin Gordon has been more appropriately priced but still cheaper than his fellow backfield mate in Austin Ekeler. I really don’t have a strong lean towards either. Gordon will see more work in a game that hangs close but Ekeler could be summoned into more duty if the Chiefs pull ahead in a big way.
- Keenan Allen intrigues me for that reason. His price is down and one would think we’ll need to see the Chargers throw a decent amount. Mike Williams can take some deep ball production off the table but this feels more like a spot where Allen, who has 10 targets in each of his last two games, could submit one more decent performance to close out the year.
- Hunter Henry also appeals to me more than Williams. His price is now lower and Henry could see more work in a variety of different game scripts. I don’t love him by any stretch and Kansas City gives opposing tight ends a 20% decrease in production according to DVOA. But if there were a spot for him to bounce back, possibly in a Philip Rivers stack with Allen, this is it.
Top KC NFL DFS picks:
- The Patrick Mahomes/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce stack looks good to me again. It’s been underowned during its last few appearances on the main slate but they project well and their prices are somewhat reasonable for Week 17. Kansas City will have to play like they can seize the No. 2 seed, a situation that would occur if New England lost to Miami. The games will run at the same time and there’s no reason to think Kansas City would ease off the gas pedal as a result.
- Damien Williams appeals to me less than the pass game but his return to 19 touches in Week 16 was inspiring. Spencer Ware is out for the year but LeSean McCoy’s absence was referred to as “load management” so it’s possible he’s back and Williams sees a decrease in work. I’d watch McCoy’s status closely because Williams is decent value if we know he’ll get work.
New Orleans Saints (29.8 implied points) at Carolina Panthers (16.8 implied points)
Top NO NFL DFS picks:
- New Orleans can still finish as the No. 1 seed so they should be full go here. And that means I’m willing to pay for Michael Thomas in lineups where I can afford it. Carolina’s pass defense is still better than their run defense but that wouldn’t stop Thomas. There really isn’t anything else you can say about how great he’s been. But the fact that he has 10 100-yard games this year is a testament to the insane consistency he has as well as the stellar role he receives in this offense.
- Alvin Kamara may be the better play adjusting for price. Carolina’s run defense has been bad and Kamara got back on track in a much tougher matchup against Tennessee in Week 16. Kamara had 29.9 fantasy points on 80 rushing yards and two touchdowns plus six catches on seven targets. He’s not a touch monster like some running backs but he can pay off big time despite the risk that comes with Kamara as chalk.
- With Kamara’s top-of-slate ownership level, a pivot to a stack with Drew Brees could be a move. Brees stacked with Jared Cook and Michael Thomas won’t be owned at all and it’s entirely possible we see Kamara cede touchdowns to the pass game or Latavius Murray depending upon how the game breaks down.
Top CAR NFL DFS picks:
- Christian McCaffrey will reportedly be a full go without getting pulled early according to interim coach Perry Fewell. McCaffrey can set the franchise rushing record with 155 yards. He can win the rushing title if he outgains Nick Chubb by 93 yards. He needs 67 receiving yards to become the third man in the 1,000 rushing yards/1,000 receiving yards ever in the NFL. McCaffrey also needs 216 yards from scrimmage to break Chris Johnson’s 2009 NFL record. There should be plenty of opportunity to accomplish some or multiples of these goals. It’s not a great matchup against the Saints and that plus McCaffrey’s price are reasons to have some pause. But I’ll be with the field on him because these are all attainable records that he may very well hit.
Miami Dolphins (14.5 implied points) at New England Patriots (30.5 implied points)
Top MIA NFL DFS picks:
- Miami won their Super Bowl in Week 16. If you want to take a stab at Ryan Fitzpatrick stacked with two of DeVante Parker, Albert Wilson and Mike Gesicki, I’d get it after what they did last time out (and in Fitzpatrick’s and Parker’s cases, all season along). But are they going to beat up on a New England defense that gives up 171 passing yards per game in a chilly day at New England in a game the Patriots desperately need? I can’t say I’d feel the most confident.
Top NE NFL DFS picks:
- Sony Michel seems to be getting into playoff bell cow mode with over 20 touches in his last two games. He hasn’t seen a touchdown in that stretch so people may be off his scent. I’d be willing to take more than the field’s 5% exposure because of that. Rex Burkhead’s involvement stinks and he vultured a goal line touchdown from Michel last week. But the work is there for Michel to take, probably more than James White at a higher price in a spot where his pass game work is less likely to be needed.
- I don’t see how the pass game options get there with the hurt I expect New England’s defense to lay on Miami’s offense. You could take stabs at Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu, the latter of whom is a decent value after some weak efforts, and hope the Pats’ high team total comes from a passing destruction. But I feel like New England can do just enough to win here with a lean on the run game.
NY Jets (17.5 implied points) at Buffalo Bills (19 implied points)
Top NYJ NFL DFS picks:
- Am I allowed to pass in this article? A firm pass. Buffalo has a good defense. The Jets should fire their coach even though they probably won’t. It’s super cold there. No thanks.
Top BUF NFL DFS picks:
- Ditto Buffalo unless we get news they’re sitting guys. If you want to give me a super cheap Matt Barkley–Robert Foster stack with Josh Allen and the core guys out, sure. But the Bills are playing for nothing with their team locked into the five seed. They also generally don’t do a ton offensively. If the starters play a preseason workload, the game is a total bust.
Indianapolis Colts (23.3 implied points) at Jacksonville Jaguars (19.8 implied points)
Top IND NFL DFS picks:
- It’s another really good spot on paper for Marlon Mack. But as we saw last week as he rolled with 5.9 yards per carry and 95 yards total on 16 rushes, it’s not just his backfield any more. Jordan Wilkins saw nine runs for 84 yards and a score, arguably more effective than Mack. It may be more logical to go his way for cheap with Mack unlikely to suddenly get 25 carries and 150 yards after they’ve already downshifted him with the season a lost cause.
- I don’t see the pass game suddenly going wild either. T.Y. Hilton could use the rest and Zach Pascal won’t see a big boost unless Hilton sits entirely. If some news of absences pops up, I could see that perking more interest in whatever remains.
Top JAX NFL DFS picks:
- It appears as though Leonard Fournette will simply never see the positive touchdown regression he seemed due for. It would be ironic if it occurred after three games of under 14 fantasy points in a row but I don’t love this situation for Fournette. He’s been limited in practice this week and Indianapolis gives up a low 2.2% rushing touchdown rate on the year. Weird things happen in Week 17 but I don’t think this suddenly flips. With him projected to be chalky, that’s a scary prospect.
- Jacksonville also didn’t offer much opportunity in the pass game in Week 16 with D.J. Chark in particular a bit of a disappointment. I don’t mind another swing at the passing corps with the 70% completion rate Indianapolis allows, though Chris Conley did see a comparable amount of targets and more air yards with Chark seemingly still a bit gimpy from his injury.
- Gardner Minshew could do a decent job against heavy zone coverage that forces shorter throws. Though honestly, I wouldn’t be too inclined to play him at this point with him down to a 60% completion rate himself. A franchise savior he ain’t.
Philadelphia Eagles (25 implied points) at NY Giants (20.5 implied points)
Top PHI NFL DFS picks:
- The Eagles are playing for their playoff lives with a win and they’re in. And that likely begins with Miles Sanders at this point. The Giants’ run defense has improved but Sanders saw 20 carries and five catches on six targets against Dallas in Week 16. He’s a risk to lose carries to Jordan Howard but Sanders has to be worth GPP consideration at under 5% projected ownership. The Eagles will ride a hot hand if it gets them to the postseason.
- Greg Ward and Zach Ertz are an intriguing stack with Carson Wentz. The Giants’ pass defense remains bad with a 45 coverage grade from PFF. And with Nelson Agholor still out of practice, this is a good spot for Ward’s reasonable price with J.J. Arcega-Whiteside
- It felt like a bit of an aberration for Dallas Goedert’s big day against Dallas, name poetry aside. Ertz saw bracket coverage and was hurt during the game but I like this spot as a bounce back for him. The Giants aren’t going to reinvent the wheel at this point of the year.
Top NYG NFL DFS picks:
- Saquon Barkley is on a heater but it feels like that has to end against Philly. The Eagles give up 88 rushing yards per game and just held Ezekiel Elliott to 47 rushing yards last week. I can’t justify this leap of faith with a much worse matchup than Saquon saw in the last two weeks.
- Daniel Jones could be at least a little interesting if it weren’t for his high price. He went wild with five touchdowns and 52 passing yards, good for 38.3 fantasy points, in Week 16. Philadelphia struggles versus the pass but I’d be more inclined to think about one-off receivers.
- Golden Tate is still the top target with six grabs on 11 targets last time out. But I can’t hate the idea of a bounce back for Darius Slayton with his price where it is. He hardly saw any looks with just two targets for 35 air yards. But the disappointment could be interesting if he practices in full this week with his knee limiting him so far.
Tennessee Titans (24.5 implied points) at Houston Texans (21 implied points)
Top TEN NFL DFS picks:
- A.J. Brown was a downer last week with a fluky 49 yard rushing score propping up a day with one catch besides that. I’m intrigued for him here. The Titans need this win and Pittsburgh’s game versus Baltimore will occur at the same time. Brown could beast in a win-and-they’re-in leverage spot.
- Ryan Tannehill remains in consideration as well despite his super high price. He’s remarkably efficient and Houston won’t really be playing for anything by the time their game rolls around. Tajae Sharpe and Jonnu Smith would be equally in play for me as secondary players in stacks of Tannehill with Brown. I’d lean Smith but Sharpe’s had some serious touchdown equity this year.
- Derrick Henry also could be leaned upon in this spot after he sat out Week 17. Again, Tennessee needs this win so his hamstring woes are out the window. If his ownership is low, he’s worth some stabs.
Top HOU NFL DFS picks:
- Houston could go full bore to knock a division rival out of the playoffs. They also could let their guys chill with their seed decided by the Chiefs’ earlier game outcome. I’m inclined to think Houston settles in with a preseason load with Bill O’Brien saying he’ll play his starters. There’s no reason to risk their health on a team already suffering from Will Fuller’s woes.
Oakland Raiders (18.8 implied points) at Denver Broncos (22.3 implied points)
Top OAK NFL DFS picks:
- Josh Jacobs’s status is up in the air again. DeAndre Washington is in a tough spot if he’s out with Denver’s 91-graded run defense. He’s seen big workloads with Jacobs out and the Raiders are technically still alive in the playoffs so they’ll likely do what brought them to the dance with the run game.
- The pass game looks less appealing. Volume can make the Raiders’ rushing attack work but a mostly impotent Raiders passing offense is going to have a hard time pushing upside against Denver. Darren Waller is as fine as always even though Hunter Renfrow’s return definitely cuts into his opportunity. I don’t love the spot.
Top DEN NFL DFS picks:
- It’s a solid spot for Drew Lock even though he’s not the most impressive. Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and DaeSean Hamilton are all viable targets. A move that pairs Sutton with one of Patrick, Hamilton or Noah Fant would make for a very cheap stack against a very weak Raiders defense that gives up 7.9 yards per attempt. It was a comparably good spot versus Detroit last week and we didn’t see big upside so it may be more logical to just play some Courtland Sutton and be happy if he produces. He had just five grabs for 41 yards on 10 targets and 97 air yards.
- Phillip Lindsay may be a little more appealing. Oakland’s run defense isn’t too shabby with a 73 grade from PFF and 4.0 yards per carry allowed. But Denver is committed to the run and Lindsay saw 19 carries with two catches en route to 22.8 fantasy points in Week 16. He can find upside here.
Washington Redskins (17.3 implied points) at Dallas Cowboys (28.3 implied points)
Top WAS NFL DFS picks:
- Case Keenum should pick up the start but things could be very ugly if Terry McLaurin sits. McLaurin is in the concussion protocol and Keenum would be down to Steven Sims and Kelvin Harmon if McLaurin is out. I don’t hate this stack conceptually as what could be the cheapest stack ever but they’re likely to play from behind and Keenum has been competent when allowed to be the poorest man’s version of Ryan Fitzpatrick.
- Adrian Peterson keeps getting work with 15 carries and two catches in Week 16. I have no faith in his upside but he can certainly find the end zone in a spot with some historical significance for him at Dallas. He’s far from a play to love but the price point is vaguely interesting.
Top DAL NFL DFS picks:
- Dak Prescott is clearly hurt. His 11.3 fantasy points marked his third-worst game of the year and he’s been held out of practice this week. Dallas needs this win in the hopes Philly blows their game but it’s hard to bank on the hope that comes through the air. Washington’s pass defense is fertile to be destroyed with a 68.6% completion rate and 6.1% passing touchdown rate allowed. If you have an appetite for chalky risk, the possibly injured Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup are in strong matchups outside. There’s nothing wrong with Randall Cobb in the slot either other than his slightly lesser opportunity. It’s risky but there’s undeniably some upside.
- I might be more inclined to take Ezekiel Elliott’s massive workload against the 141 rushing yards per game Washington allows. They’ve been annihilated by Saquon Barkley and Miles Sanders the last few weeks and now’s the time he should earn his paycheck. Elliott had 23 carries and 111 rushing yards and a score against Washington in Week 2 coming off of his early season holdout. With the Cowboys’ season on the line and a lot less to play for on Washington’s end, it’s hard to Elliott not being at least at that level again.
Pittsburgh Steelers (19.5 implied points) at Baltimore Ravens (17.5 implied points)
Top PIT NFL DFS picks:
- Devlin Hodges at quarterback and a lot of grossness besides this gives us another pass.
Top BAL NFL DFS picks:
- Robert Griffin and Gus Edwards will start for Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram. One would also think we’ll see limited routes, if any, for Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. I’m theoretically intrigued with Griffin in this spot with a decent but not terribly cheap price but it feels sort of narrow for him and the running backs against a good Pittsburgh defense. I also wouldn’t expect Griffin to run as aggressively as Jackson does. Maybe it’s a spot to stack Griffin with explosive backup Miles Boykin and Nick Boyle or Hayden Hurst? It’s a total shot in the dark.
Arizona Cardinals (21 implied points) at LA Rams (28 implied points)
Top ARI NFL DFS picks:
- You could have talked me into Brett Hundley if he started after looking shockingly crisp (on the running end, at least) when summoned into action in Week 16. Kyler Murray has practiced in limited fashion this week so the expectation is he’ll be out there.
- Kenyan Drake’s price is stupidly high but he could keep his heater going one more week against the Rams’ 47-graded run defense. They’re worse than they appear on paper and Arizona has remained deeply committed to the run. Drake has 24 and 22 carries in his last two games.
Top LAR NFL DFS picks:
- Jared Goff could take one more confidence builder to end the year and it’s a nice spot against Arizona. They give up 280 passing yards per game and Goff had his best game of the year against them with 28 fantasy points in Week 13. Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee are the clear top stack options based on the last month. Woods ran 50 routes and Higbee ran 36 to Brandin Cooks’ 34 and Cooper Kupp’s 33 in their last game. There’s some risk Sean McVay sits everyone as he’s done in previous years. But without any playoffs on the line, it’s all to be determined.
- Todd Gurley has been down to 15 and 11 carries in the last two weeks as the Rams’ playoff chances have vanished. He’s not in play for me at this point. But he still should see enough work that the backup running backs can’t be counted on.
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