The Slant and Go with Chris Spags: Josh Allen And Wild Card NFL DFS Picks (FREE)

We survived the regular season but now we’ve got ourselves a Wild Card round with some big tournaments industrywide for NFL DFS picks. It’s a fairly star-studded first round with teams like New England, New Orleans and Seattle in the mix and there are still some key injury situations we need more clarity on. And, oh yeah, it’s time for Josh Allen‘s first playoff game in a legitimately appealing matchup for him. So strap in and let’s take a look around this four-game slate for some Wild Card NFL DFS picks in another edition of the Slant and Go!

Buffalo Bills (20.8 implied points) at Houston Texans (23.3 implied points)

Top BUF NFL DFS picks:

  • It’s been a while since I’ve gotten to say this in one of these columns but it may very well be Josh Allen season. Allen faces a Houston defense that gives up a slate-high 267.3 passing yards per game. They’re also brutal in the red zone as they allow 5.5 points per red zone visit. The return of J.J. Watt will certainly help but overall, this is not a great Houston defense. Allen drives so much of Buffalo’s offense that I’m more than intrigued about his prospects as a passer with serious rushing upside.
  • John Brown has a solid matchup outside against Johnathan Joseph. Cole Beasley also should be able to put in work against Vernon Hargreaves in the slot. These guys appeal to me as a stack with Allen. You could also just take one of Brown and Beasley given the rushing upside that Allen has with 6.8 rush attempts per game.
  • Devin Singletary has a less appealing matchup overall with Houston’s run defense slightly more stout with a 72 grade from PFF. They allow 121 yards per carry though and Singletary saw between 16 and 23 touches down the last few weeks of the year. That definitely offers some upside in lineups without Allen.

Top HOU NFL DFS picks

  • Deshaun Watson can produce in any situation but I’m deeply concerned about this matchup for him. Buffalo allows just 195 passing yards per game on the year and their coverage outside is stellar. Watson has produced in many situations but I’m inclined to come under the field on his current 16% ownership projected.
  • DeAndre Hopkins can certainly produce even if Watson has a down game. He’ll be one of the highest-owned receivers on the slate and I can’t really argue that with his 10 targets per game. Tre’davious White will make things tough on him outside but Hopkins is a special talent. I don’t view him as a lock play but he’s one of few Texans offensive players I’m willing to trust at volume.
  • I’m terrified of Will Fuller coming off of his many injuries in this tough spot. But his price is so low that in lineups without Hopkins, I’d be willing to look Fuller’s way. His price offers tournament-winning upside but there’s a ton of risk due to Buffalo’s high level defense.
  • Carlos Hyde may be a little bit more appealing with the 4.3 yards per carry Buffalo allows with a 65 run defense grade from PFF. Playoff football is the time for a guy like Hyde to ruin slates and it wouldn’t shock me if he got you 80 yards and two scores in a game where I expect less pass game success for Houston.

Tennessee Titans (19.5 implied points) at New England Patriots (24.5 implied points)

Top TEN NFL DFS picks:

  • This may end up on the wrong side of history but I really think Tennessee can steal this one on the road. New England has shown the ability to get strafed by the run this season with teams who remain committed to it and I think that could be the case here. I expect a lot of work for Derrick Henry and I’d be willing to take that stab in the hopes he drives Tennessee to glory.
  • I don’t think last week’s loss to Miami was some indoctrination of everything New England’s defense did this year. But it does seem worth noting that Ryan Fitzpatrick really was able to move the ball when attacking with aggression down the stretch. That’s exactly how  Ryan Tannehill has had success this year despite just 24 pass attempts per game. I’d have a hard time getting to a Tannehill stack but it intrigues me as a contrarian move in lineups without Henry if you, like me, think we may see the dying days of New England in the playoffs.
  • Tannehill seems particularly capable of giving A.J. Brown a chance at success. New England will cover him well but he, much like DeVante Parker last week, is a physical aberration who could make plays if he just sees the targets. It’s also possible New England game plans to make Tajae Sharpe, Jonnu Smith or Corey Davis beat them but I definitely wouldn’t rule Brown out.

Top NE NFL DFS picks:

  • Tom Brady has seen some better protection in recent weeks and he’s the one thing who may be able to keep New England alive at least one more round. Tennessee generates poor pressure with a 21% pressure rate and a 66 pass rush grade from PFF. Brady with his price low and their season on the line is an intriguing option.
  • The obvious and most owned Brady stack would include Julian Edelman and James White. But with how banged up Edelman has looked in recent weeks, I can’t hate on a pivot to N’Keal Harry, Phillip Dorsett or Mohamed Sanu. I’d lean towards Harry in lineups without Edelman with a fraction of the ownership of Sanu despite a similar opportunity in recent weeks.
  • White appeals to me more than Sony Michel given the four yards per carry with an 88 run defense grade that Tennessee brings to the table. Michel can be that blunt force option as he was in last year’s playoffs with an average of 25.8 fantasy points in their three rounds. But I think the matchup and his touchdown dependency make him less appealing than White, particularly if New England plays from behind at all.
  • Given the low team total, the Patriots defense has to be a consideration. Tannehill has a decently low 2% interception rate on the year but this is a bright lights spot for him. The Vegas total certainly supports old Tannehill rearing his head. 

Minnesota Vikings (21 implied points) at New Orleans Saints (29 implied points)

Top MIN NFL DFS picks:

  • Dalvin Cook is a key player on the slate with one of his season’s toughest matchups against New Orleans’ 83-graded run defense by PFF. Cook will get chances and it’s possible that he gets going despite the tough matchup. I’d want at least the projected 10% ownership the field is currently projected to have for him with a decent likelihood he has enough of a floor and ceiling to be useful despite the difficult situation.
  • I’d favor Adam Thielen over Stefon Diggs in the pass game. Thielen was mostly quiet throughout the season but it wouldn’t shock me to see more intermediate pass game opportunity with New Orleans very aware of the big play threat that Diggs presents. A Kirk Cousins/Thielen/Diggs or Kyle Rudolph stack won’t pop up much in projections but a shootout in New Orleans is far from an insane thought.

Top NO NFL DFS picks:

  • Drew Brees currently looks to be the top-owned quarterback on the slate and that seems fair based on Awesemo’s projections. Brees stacked with Michael Thomas and Jared Cook remains an appealing stack, particularly in lineups without Alvin Kamara. Tre’Quan Smith is a lower-owned option who seems to somewhat usurp Ted Ginn down the stretch but I don’t hate an attempt at either guy in Brees stacks with Thomas to differentiate.
  • I’m okay with Alvin Kamara but less bullish than the field’s 40% projected ownership currently looks to be. It’s very possible New Orleans has saved him somewhat for the playoffs and I’ll definitely have some exposure. But Minnesota is a tough defense who is capable of playing up to potential sometimes. I’d be more inclined to take less of Kamara than a comparably chalky Thomas. There are more ways for it to get weird for Kamara when considering Latavius Murray than there are for Thomas and his 12 targets per game.

Seattle Seahawks (23.8 implied points) at Philadelphia Eagles (22.3 implied points)

Top SEA NFL DFS picks:

  • Marshawn Lynch had 12 carries to Travis Homer’s 10 carries and five catches on five targets in Lynch’s season debut. I’d be more inclined for Lynch with him also picking up three red zone rushes in that process. It’s still a tough matchup against Philadelphia’s solid run defense that gave up just 90 rushing yards per game. But that reason alone makes me think Homer is less likely to find success compared to the smash mouth approach Lynch brings to every situation.
  • The pass game led by Russell Wilson is undeniably more appealing. I don’t get why Wilson is projected for such low ownership and I feel the same for Tyler Lockett. Philadelphia made some strides in pass coverage down the stretch thanks largely to their 79-graded pass rush. They’re going to create pressure around Wilson but I think he can take advantage. I like the Seattle stack a lot relative to its ownership.
  • D.K. Metcalf would be my preferred secondary target but his price point is a bit tough. He had 150 air yards in a game where Seattle really needed anything they could get in Week 17 against Seattle. I think they’ll lean on him as a home run threat yet again in a more meaningful way than a higher-owned Jacob Hollister.

Top PHI NFL DFS picks:

  • Philadelphia has a lot of issues with Miles Sanders out of practice thus far this week despite his day-to-day status and Zach Ertz only practicing in a limited fashion with his kidney issues. Boston Scott won’t come as any sort of surprise value but he would be an exceedingly worthwhile play if we know that Sanders will be unavailable. I’m highly interested in whichever running back will pick up the start. If we don’t know Sanders’ status before Saturday’s slate lock, I’d just put him in lineups and be prepared for a global swap to Scott with their salaries close enough.
  • Ertz’ status is also key because Dallas Goedert would be a very strong play again if he’s out. Goedert disappointed as chalk in Ertz’ last missed game but he still had 10 targets for 73 air yards against the Giants. Josh Perkins would also be in play for me without Ertz. And obviously if Ertz is in, he’s likely one of the top tight end plays on the slate.
  • Greg Ward remains a fine enough play with a questionable ceiling. I don’t hate the idea of Carson Wentz stacks that mix in different pairings of the skill position guys. Wentz throws it to his backs a lot to create their value and Wentz stacked with, say, Ward and Scott would be a much more lowly owned option despite a lot of potential. Ward as a one-off isn’t a sure thing but at this point you have to like him a lot more than Robert Davis or J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. Deontay Burnett had four targets on 11 routes run in Week 17 and he might also appeal to me more than Davis and Arcega-Whiteside.

Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags to see all the rest of the NFL and NBA content I’ll have with new shows and videos all week long!

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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