Week 12 is here and we have an 11-game main slate to break down. We are in the last week of byes so we are going to have even bigger slates to break down going forward. The playoff push is on for many teams and obviously with injuries being a major factor, a lot will change as we get closer to Sunday. We don’t have Lamar Jackson available on the main NFL DFS slate as the Ravens play on Monday Night Football against the Rams, but most of the big names are available to roster this week.
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Favorite Game to Target
Panthers at Saints
Again, the NFC South is the main event on the Week 12 slate, as there are two divisional matchups with high totals. Falcons-Buccaneers going to be the most popular game as their total is north of 50, but don’t forget tat this one is taking place in the dome. This total sits at a healthy 47 points and with the Saints as a 10-point favorite, they are expected to get the better of this one.
New Orleans not only survived, but flourished somehow when Drew Brees went down earlier in the year. They have a potent offense and we all know that Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are two of the most explosive weapons in the entire league. The Panthers are currently dead last DVOA against the run, so clearly New Orleans should have the advantage on the ground. With a positive game script, that furthers the ability for the Saints to really do damage against this Panthers front.
Carolina, on the other hand, have Christian McCaffrey, who is the best player in NFL DFS, so spending up in this game is going to be a popular strategy. The Panthers passing attack is the wildcard as Kyle Allen is coming off a horrible game against Atlanta with no touchdowns and four interceptions. The Panthers will be facing a quality Saints defense, but they also should be playing from behind and forced to throw the ball late in this game. The interesting part about this is the three highest-salaried players on the slate are in this game. That makes it a fascinating game to discuss in the context of stacking as you will be allocating a ton of salary to load up, but I still absolutely want to get exposure to some of these top-end plays this week.
Easiest Game to Avoid
Broncos at Bills
An outdoor game in Buffalo isn’t ideal and a 37.5 total isn’t moving the needle much. The Broncos head to Buffalo against a Bills team that is firmly in the playoff hunt and needs to continue to win games like this. Josh Allen showed last week he’s always in play for NFL DFS with his rushing upside, but week to week, it’s a volatile situation. The Broncos are a top-10 run defense and can hold their own through the air, making this not the ideal spot to target. On the other side, the Broncos offense is difficult to target with the unreliable quarterback play and the dual backfield in Philip Lindsey and Royce Freeman. Currently, Lindsey is questionable so keep an eye on his status as that would open up some interest. Overall, it’s a low-total game that I have little interest in trying to stack up for NFL DFS, despite what will be low ownership.
Quick Targets
Quarterback
Matt Ryan 6.7k DraftKings, 7.9k FanDuel
Ryan and the Falcons return to the dome after a brief stay outdoors last week in Carolina. The Buccaneers are 30th in passing defense in the entire league according to DVOA and they’ve basically shown they are unable to stop any competent passing attack. Ryan is always better at home and the Falcons’ lack of running game has translated to a lot of opportunities for this passing attack in the red zone. The matchup doesn’t get better than this and although Ryan and this offense is going to be popular, so it’s hard to ignore. Russell Wilson is the top-priced quarterback of those clearly in play for NFL DFS, but if I had to pay all the way up at quarterback, I will be going to Ryan and this Falcons offense in the dome.
Carson Wentz 5.6k DraftKings, 7.3k FanDuel
This is a price point play for NFL DFS as $5,600 on DraftKings is very tempting. Wentz draws the Seahawks defense that isn’t close to its former self and is giving up 271.8 yards through the air per game, which is ahead of only three teams. They don’t generate a ton of pressure and Wentz isn’t shy about throwing, as he’s attempted 35-plus passes in six games already this season.
The receivers and pass catchers being banged up is a concern, but the implied total of 24.8 shows that the Eagles are expected to move the ball. Philadelphia is a slight favorite in the game, and are at home which is always a positive. The way to attack Seattle is through the air and with a close competitive matchup expected, Wentz should be poised to pay off what I believe is too cheap of a price tag.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey 10.5k DraftKings, 10.5k FanDuel
I mentioned last week the sites have started to really pump up McCaffrey’s price in an attempt to at least make it an opportunity cost if you roster him. However, he basically never comes off the field and the Panthers are going to run him into the ground. The minor concern is he is starting to get banged up with a knee and now an ankle injury keeping him out of practice. The Panthers are saying this is mostly scheduled maintenance and he isn’t in danger of missing time, but it still is concerning if he is limited in any way.
It seems like even when the Panthers are inept on offense, McCaffrey finds a way to return valuable points. Last week, the Panthers didn’t score any touchdowns and yet McCaffrey finished with 191 total yards and 11 catches, which translated into a quality output despite not finding the end zone. Clearly, New Orleans will prioritize limiting his production, but it will not matter with the amount of volume McCaffrey sees. Whenever he has 10-plus targets in addition to his rushing, it becomes very difficult to fade him and I believe that is workload he will see once again this week.
Derrick Henry 6.9k DraftKings, 8.4k FanDuel
I usually prefer to roster Henry on FanDuel over DraftKings just because he isn’t the most prolific pass catcher. However, lately he’s shown the ability to pitch in with a few targets, and regardless, his production on the ground is enough on its own to return value. Last time we saw Henry was back in Week 10 where he dismantled the Chiefs on 23 carries for 188 yards and two touchdowns.
So far on the season, Henry has 16-plus touches in every single game this season and that volume keeps his floor reasonable despite the lack of pass-catching upside. The Jaguars are a bottom-three rushing defense and with the Titans a 3.5-point favorite at home, they should be leaning on Henry late if everything goes according to plan. Henry was pretty ineffective in Week 3 against the Jags as he went for just 44 yards on 17 carries, but did find the end zone. I expect a much more efficient stat line this time around and he makes for one of the better mid-range plays in any NFL DFS format.
Also Considering – Jaylen Samuels (If Conner sits)   Â
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones 8k DraftKings, 8.4k FanDuel
Looking at the salaries, we have Michael Thomas as far and away the most expensive receiver across the league. Julio Jones is next, but the salary difference has me leaning to the Falcons pass catcher with his upcoming matchup with Tampa Bay.
Jones has at least seven targets in every game and now draws the 32nd-ranked defense DVOA against wide receivers, which obviously makes this the marquee matchup in the league. Tampa (like many teams) has nobody who can slow Jones down and he should be in line for massive production in this spot. Lately the Falcons have looked fantastic to the point where they’ve been in control in the fourth quarter. As good as they have played, I still think this is a team that more often than not will be throwing late in games and possibly trailing in spots like that. Either way, Jones is the premier receiver option on the slate and I will try and make room for him in NFL DFS despite all the star power in the other NFC South matchup.
Jarvis Landry 6.3k DraftKings, 6.9k FanDuel
Cleveland has maybe the top matchup in the league as they are at home against the Dolphins and are a 10.5-point favorite. The entire offense gets a boost considering how bad this Miami defense is, and it is just a matter of figuring out who we want to target. With Kareem Hunt back in business the backfield is a little muddled and I prefer going to the outside with a guy like Landry.
Landry has at least five targets in every game this season and he is always a reliable option, especially on full-PPR sites. The Dolphins rank dead last against the pass in the league so Baker Mayfield and these receivers should have the advantage across the board. Landry has found the end zone in three straight games and for those of you who like narrative street, he should be ready to roll against his former team. I like Landry in all formats and think in a game where the Browns should rack up the points, he will be a key contributor on this offense, and to NFL DFS lineups.
Tim Patrick 3k DraftKings, 5.4k FanDuelÂ
I want to be clear: you absolutely do not need to dip this low on this slate, but if you want someone at the flat min, then Patrick is probably your guy. The Broncos receiver played ~75% of snaps in his first week back from injured reserve and was targeted eight times, leading to a 4-77-0 line. When you are priced in the basement like this, you will easily take eight targets any day of the week and it is not impossible that workload continues this week. Courtland Sutton will be facing off with top Bills corner Tre’Davious White so that is another reason to like Patrick as the next pass catcher in line. Anytime you are looking to a guy at this salary, there is immense risk, but the salary he opens up allows you to target several high-end options on a slate that is loaded with them.
Also considering – DJ Moore
Tight End
Vance McDonald 3.5k DraftKings, 5.3k FanDuel
McDonald has been one of the more disappointing guys for me this season, as I thought he would have a chance to breakout. That hasn’t happened and it has been a very quiet season for the Steelers pass catcher. However, he has seen seven targets in three straight games and although it hasn’t produced monster stat lines that is so,mething to take notice of. Add in that James Conner, JuJu Smith Schuster and Diontae Johnson all were injured in last week’s game against Cleveland and McDonald should be forced into major work.
It remains to been seen who if any of those Steelers weapons will be out for this game, but even if anyone is limited, it should be a boost to McDonald’s target share. They draw the Bengals who are bottom-five in defending the tight end, and just a terrible defense across the board. With the price being reasonable due to the lack of production this is an easy buy-low spot in NFL DFS for a guy who should be heavily involved this week.
Also Considering – Zach Ertz
Defense
Bears 3.7k DraftKings, 5k FanDuel
Bears lost a crucial game last week and the season is teetering on being completely dead. They need to win out and the way they’ve been playing, that seems borderline impossible. Either way, they do have a positive matchup here as the Giants have lost six straight coming into Chicago. The Bears defense hasn’t been the elite unit we saw earlier in the year, but they still have the advantage upfront against this Giants offensive line. In their five home games this year, they’ve averaged three sacks a game and again, the Giants have struggled all season protecting Daniel Jones.
The Bears are a six-point favorite here so the script sets up for the defense having plenty of chances while Jones and the Giants are playing catch-up. They are somewhat expensive, but with plenty of NFL DFS value on the slate, I don’t mind paying up for them when I have the money.
Jaguars 2.8k DraftKings, 4.2k FanDuel
This is more an indictment of the Titans offensive line then a ringing endorsement of the Jaguars. The first time these teams played back in Week 3, the Jaguars had nine sacks and obviously, that is what we are looking for anytime we roster a defense. That was a ceiling performance, but the Titans have allowed a league-high 42 sacks this season. With a reasonable price tag on Jacksonville, I will target them and count on them getting pressure which can lead to all sorts of points for a defense.
Good luck everyone!
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