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Study a DFS Pro – ChipotleAddict – DraftKings NFL Showdown Slate

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Nolan Kelly deep dives into all the things he's learned about DFS during his year working with some of the best minds in daily fantasy sports

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Study a DFS pro – ChipotleAddict – Showdown slate

With just ONE football slate left until the Hall of Fame game in August, we’ve got to make the most of it. As such, we’re going to do a little prep for the Super Bowl Showdown by focusing on ChipotleAddict who currently sits 4th in Rotogrinders’ DFS player rankings.

Specifically, we’re going to do a deep dive into ChipotleAddict’s 150 teams from the $10, 29,412 entry, DraftKings Showdown Slate from the NFC Championship game, which featured the LA Rams vs. the New Orleans Saints.

First I’ll write a bit of analysis about the lineups, and then below I’ve included a spreadsheet that breaks down ChipotleAddicts’ teams, by the amount of times each player was rostered in both the CPT/FLEX spots, by how correlated they were with their QB, and by how highly owned they were on ChipotleAddict’s teams, relative to the ownership on the slate as a whole.

There are a number of takeaways that should help with your Super Bowl lineups, or, starting next season with the first Thursday slate.

Notes and takeaways

  • The first and most obvious takeaway is that ChiptoleAddict didn’t use either quarterback at the CPT spot once in his entire 150 lineups. I’m not sure if this a rule, or if it simply pertains to this matchup. My guess is that it’s a rule that is likely only broken if the QB is a) capable of gaining rushing yards/TDs on their own, b) in an offence that spreads the ball around.
  • He was not high on Jared Goff, rostering him in just 22 of 150 lineups. In those 22 lineups only five had a Rams receiver in the CPT spot and 20 were in the same lineup as Drew Brees – which makes sense, given what we know about QB correlation.
  • Of the three possible roster constructions, from a team standpoint (4-2, 3-3, 5-1), he only used a 5-1, 15 times and all 15 had 5 Saints and one Ram. Of those 15 lineups, six had a Rams WR in the CPT spot as the lone player (Woods, Cooks, Reynolds) and one had the Saints DST.
  • The vast majority of his lineups were 4-2 Saints or 3-3, he had just eight rosters with four Rams and two Saints players
  • His player pool was small. There were very few risky plays. No Dan Arnold’s, no Taysom Hill’s, no Austin Carr’s, no TommyLee Lewis’s. In some ways, this is a very conservative approach because the likelihood of duplicating lineups in a large Showdown Slate GPP is high. However, it also means you’re more likely to cash lineups because you’re making safer plays. It also makes sense because, at this point in the season, we know who these teams are – we know where the ball is going and who is getting the snaps and targets, so I’m not sure I’d implement the same conservatism, say, in week three of a Jaguars vs. Titans Thursday nighter (kill me now).
  • He took strong stands on a number of players in his core. He was -34% on Jared Goff, -21%, -25% on each of the kickers,  -40% on Todd-Gurley  and -21% on CJ Anderson. His lack of LA RB faith is possibly due to going up against the Saints and their 3rd ranked DVOA against the run, or the threat of a time-share, or the negative game script and his general fading of the Rams.
  • Only once did he use more than one TE in the same lineup (Everett, Higbee), which is probably a reflection of the general usage of TEs in each offence and their price point. I doubt he’d have issue using Kelce and Kittle in the same lineup, should they face off one day.
  • CA used Alvin Kamara as a captain 58 of his 150 lineups, about 15% overweight on the field. He really only had six players with any captain ownership and sprinklings of the rest. His strong position of no QBs in the CPT spot allowed him take overweight positions on WRs like Josh Reynolds and Brandin Cooks, who received minimal CPT spot ownership, and to match the field on the likes of Thomas and Woods. He was underweight on Todd Gurley (0% compared to 10%), probably fading because of the likelihood of a time-share.

Conclusion

There are obviously some interesting tidbits and takeaways here. I wasn’t expecting such a concentrated player pool for someone MMEing. For me, the whole point of MMEing was to fit in a few of those super-low owned players, on the off chance that they go off. If you’ll remember, both Keith Kirkwood and Benjamin Watson were out for the Saints, so the opportunity was wide open for a Dan Arnold, or an Austin Carr to see an uptick in snaps and targets. Still ChipotleAddict didn’t flinch and simply stuck to projections, likely knowing that even a halfway decent game from one of these cheap fliers would have left him drawing dead.

Finally, I think that it’s best not to overthink this analysis from just a single player on a single slate. It’s entirely possible that ChipotleAddict is trusting his projections, using Fantasy Cruncher, perhaps making a few rules, and then simply uploading the generated lineups.  If so, then there isn’t as much of a point in dissecting the relationships between the players in each lineup and instead, we should just look to takeaway the general usage of players that project well in the model. However, correlation and relationships between players in Showdown’s Slates is an important factor to consider when lineup building. We hope to have some further analysis on that in the near future.

Questions? Comments? hit me up on Twitter @nolan__kelly

PlayerCaptain spotFlex spotTotalQB correlationContest ownershipChipotleAddict ownerhipDifferenceContest CPT ownershp
Drew Brees01291290.650.860.20.1
Alvin Kamara584910843 of 58 CPT, 33 of 49 FLEX0.680.720.140.2
Josh Reynolds1185960.180.640.460.015
Robert Woods2268900.450.60.150.14
Michael Thomas15738814 of 15 CPT, 67 of 73 FLEX0.640.58-0.060.14
Brandin Cooks1870880.440.580.140.06
Tedd Ginn16708616 of 16 CPT, 59 of 70 FLEX0.350.570.120.065
Mark Ingram542470.210.3130.10.03
Josh Hill131311 of 1 CPT, 28 of 31 FLEX0.180.210.030.0001
Tre'Quan Smith128290.130.190.060.0015
Gerald Everett224260.080.170.090.0005
Saints DST223250.10.170.070.0015
Tyler Higbee122230.050.150.11.0E-5
Jared Goff022220.490.145-0.340.07
Todd Gurley021210.480.07-0.410.1
Greg Zeurlein0660.250.0004-0.250.0015
CJ Anderson0440.210.0002-0.210.047
Rams DST0110.05780.0001-0.0570.0007
Will Lutz0110.216.0E-5-0.210.0008
Keith Kirkwood (OUT)0000.00430-0.00430
Benji Watson (OUT)0000.00310-0.00310
Zach Line0000.00180-0.00180
Tommylee Lewis0000.0110-0.0110
John Kelly0000.00150-0.00150
Austin Carr0000.010-0.011.0E-5
Dan Arnold0000.0470-0.0470.0003
Taysom Hill0000.0460-0.050.0005

I've been obsessed with fantasy sports since as long as I can remember. Back in 1993, while seated in the last row of Mr. MacMillan's math class, I'm fairly certain a few buddies of mine and I invented daily fantasy sports -- popping down our fivers and using nothing more than a newspaper box score, we'd make our NHL player picks for the night's action. Twenty years later I started out playing DFS on DraftStreet, when three-max tourneys with 490 people were a big deal, and I've been hooked ever since. More than anything, I'm interested in getting better as a player, and in helping you become a better player. Armed with Awesemo's grades and the projections from our experts, we're here to help you take the next step. You can contact me by emailing support@awesemo.com.

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