SuperDraft is upping their game for the Super Bowl, with massive NFL DFS prize pools for a contest type that isn’t as deeply explored as other sites. That means there should be a solid edge in mastering the strategy for the final game of the season. We’ll dive into the strategy of choosing a Champion and building NFL DFS picks in a lineup around it for Super Bowl LV.
NFL DFS Picks: SuperDraft Super Bowl LV Strategy
Daily Fantasy Football Lineups: Champion Selection
The Champion slot on SuperDraft gives an additional 1.5x multiplier with no cost. As far as tournaments go, we want to choose players who have a better shot at leading the slate in scoring than their ownership would indicate. That’s where the edge lies. Let’s get to it.
The scoring format on SuperDraft is half-PPR but with bonuses for 100 yards rushing and receiving and 300 yards passing. The loss of the extra half point for running backs and receivers does the quarterbacks a big favor, but the multipliers make up for that. Despite getting no initial multiplier, Patrick Mahomes is still a top-two play per our projections. In smaller tournaments, going with the chalk and Championing Mahomes is the clear move. Tom Brady‘s projection isn’t far off from Mahomes, but the Chiefs have an implied team total of 3 more points, and touchdowns get an increased significance in SuperDraft’s scoring. Opting for the touchdown ceiling in Mahomes is generally preferred.
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Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill
Receivers don’t typically carry as much touchdown equity as backs, but the Super Bowl doesn’t feature normal teams. The Chiefs and Buccaneers are top two in neutral-situation pass rate. Neither team is going to run much, and both teams can score copiously through the air. Tyreek Hill saw 17 red zone targets in the regular season, while Travis Kelce was just ahead of him at 20 targets. However, Hill’s downfield role also gives him access to deep touchdowns that Kelce doesn’t have. Hill scored 15 times to Kelce’s 11 in the regular season.
Kelce has outperformed him throughout the playoffs, but that is an especially small sample. Buying the dip on Hill is the ideal large-field tournament play instead of Kelce or Mahomes. Kelce is still a solid bet in tournaments if you commit to another pivot or unpopular play elsewhere, as he has the highest projection of the slate for us.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans
The scoring upside of these two players shows how much touchdown potential can play a role in SuperDraft’s format. Mike Evans has been out-produced by Chris Godwin throughout the playoffs, but the two have identical projections because the thing Godwin does best (catch passes) doesn’t give him the upside that being a red zone weapon does. Evans found the end zone 13 times in the regular season and saw 18 red zone targets. That’s double the amount of Godwin. Both players are viable Champion plays, but the SuperDraft scoring makes this a particularly enticing spot to buy low on Evans given that Godwin is projected to be more popular on all sites.
The multiplier in this format essentially gives each player a wide range of outcomes to compensate for their lack of normal scoring. For a player like Leonard Fournette, whose range of outcomes could be naturally wide anyway, this gives him a fighting chance to outscore the premier options on the slate. He has operated as the red zone back for the Bucs in his two playoff appearances alongside Ronald Jones, out-carrying him 8-to-4 where it counts. He also has 3 touchdowns in the playoffs. Fournette likely needs to double-dip in the end zone to make the optimal lineup as the Champion, but that’s entirely possible. He can likely be followed up with much of the chalk in tournaments if using him at Champion specifically.
NFL DFS Picks: Flex Plays
Because SuperDraft doesn’t utilize a salary cap format, the goal of any lineup is to find the six highest-scoring players after factoring in their multipliers. This may sound like you need to create the all-upside squad, but that’s not likely to be true. Every player’s multiplier is only valuable if it’s multiplying a worthwhile score in the first place. There are likely to be some high-floor/low-ceiling plays that crack the optimal lineup simply because not all of the flashy players hit a ceiling outcome. With that in mind, here’s a mix of players with good median projections and some ceiling plays. All of the possible Champion options from above also make good Flex plays.
If you’re not opting for Evans or Godwin, pivoting to Antonio Brown (if he plays through this knee injury, which is expected) should provide some leverage. Brown has played in 10 games with the Bucs and has 5 scores. He has four games with 7 or more targets and achieved the 100-yard bonus once. Our raw projection for him is in line with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but Brown was given a 2x multiplier, while Edwards-Helaire only earns 1.7x the points.
In the regular season games he was healthy for, Sammy Watkins ran a route on 73% of Mahomes’ dropbacks. This includes the two games that he was injured in. Watkins was averaging 35.7 routes and 5.5 targets per game. His 2.4x multiplier is 0.4x higher than Mecole Hardman‘s number despite the latter being half backup receiver and half special teams player when Watkins was available in the regular season.
Ryan Succop and Harrison Butker
Both of the kickers project extremely well after factoring in Ryan Succop‘s 2.3x and Harrison Butker‘s 2.25x multipliers. This game should feature a lot of touchdowns, but red zone efficiency is fluky. These teams should at least be frequenting their opponent’s territory without always capitalizing. Neither kicker seems to be screaming with hypothetical upside, but that should only serve to keep their ownership in check. Most fantasy players are going to opt for higher multipliers on poorly projected players. The next choice could be to get an explosive player with a middling multiplier. The math says to opt for kickers instead. Pivoting off a Jones or Demarcus Robinson and taking the free points is both optimal based on projections and may not be as popular as it should be.
Cameron Brate‘s 3.6x multiplier is what makes him so valuable despite operating in a tight-end-by-committee situation. In the playoffs, he’s run 9 fewer routes than Rob Gronkowski but has 16 targets, 9 more than him. Both of the main NFL DFS sites put Brate ahead of Gronkowski in pricing. SuperDraft left Brate’s multiplier below his, making this the site to bet on a repeat of any of Brate’s recent string of solid outings.
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