The Data Deep Dive: Week 11 NFL DFS Opportunity, Efficiency, Target Share + Top Stacks

The Week 11 NFL DFS Data Deep Dive looks into the advanced metrics you need to know in order to make informed daily fantasy football decisions. Matt Savoca takes a look behind the curtain of his process, delivering the visualizations and proprietary statistics along with some quick-hitter thoughts that he uses to prepare for his weekly Main Slate Matchups column, published every Thursday, right here on Awesemo.com. Let’s dig into the data from Week 10 as we look ahead to Week 11 NFL DFS picks for the daily fantasy football season and NFL DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Week 11 Data Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks

Team Efficiency (Click Graph to Enlarge)

fantasy football
The above two charts are two measures of team efficiency. The left chart measures offensive per-drive ability on the Y-axis and defensive per-drive ability on the X-axis. The right chart measures per-play ability. Both graphs use the expected points model popularized by the nflfastR data package.
  • No offense to the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers, but the best team in the NFL is the Chiefs, who rank well above average in expected points per drive, expected points allowed per drive and expected points added per play. Their league-average ranking in defensive per-play efficiency is absolutely overcomeable even in a one-game, winner-take-all scenario like a playoff matchup. The Super Bowl champs are more poised to repeat than any Super Bowl winner in recent memory.
  • The Los Angeles Rams have squeezed into the upper-right quadrant on both charts, indicating they’re playing efficient football on a per-drive and per-play level on both sides of the ball. The Rams made relatively easy work of the Seahawks last week and now rank sixth in the NFC conference standings at 6-3.
  • The injury to Drew Brees will absolutely be difficult to overcome for the New Orleans, but that shouldn’t stop the defense from ranking in the upper tier of teams in both expected points allowed per drive and EPA allowed per play. So long as Jameis Winston plays just average football, the Saints should be able to maintain their playoff pace and could even hold their place (second) in the NFC standings.
  • A tepid congratulations to Joe Flacco, who has now pushed the Jets into the “above-average offense” category (on a per-play basis). It’s the first time the Jets have been above average on either side of the ball on either of the charts. Things are really looking up in the meadowlands. The Jets still stink, but they stink slightly less than they did earlier in the season.

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Team Aggressiveness (Click Graph to Enlarge)

nfl dfs fantasy football
The above chart measures team aggressiveness. The X-axis is Air Yards per second (Air Yards per Play/Seconds per Play) as a measure of pace and deep passing aggressiveness. True Neutral Early-Down Pass Rate (Y-axis) measures the number of times a team chooses to pass the ball on first or second down while within one possession. The raw number is fitted to its historical mean by using empirical Bayes estimation. This chart updates on Wednesdays when FootballOutsiders updates their pace data.
  • Despite a worse-than-mediocre place in the standings, the Texans continue to be an aggressive, pass-oriented offense that will likely continue to generate production for daily fantasy football gamers (when they’re not playing in monsoon-like weather).
  • The Titans fell squarely into the “fast and run-oriented” (lower-right) quadrant with a lethargic game against the Colts last Thursday. Tennessee would likely benefit by taking more deep shots with A.J. Brown and Corey Davis, which in turn should create more space for Derrick Henry to operate on the ground.
  • One team to keep an eye on in the coming weeks is New Orleans, who has been as conservative as ever with Brees at the helm (and Michael Thomas injured). It won’t be surprising, however, if Winston significantly boosts the downfield aggressiveness of the New Orleans offense in the coming weeks. The Saints have nowhere to go but up in that metric.
  • It doesn’t appear that Kirk Cousins and the Vikings push many edges from an efficiency or pace standpoint, choosing instead to slow games down with their methodical, rush-based attack. But with Cousins continuing to finish drives with touchdowns (see Quality QB Play below), the Vikings have a chance to be the most productive offense from the slow, run-oriented (bottom-left) quadrant in the second half of the season.

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Quarterback Efficiency (Click Graph to Enlarge)

Week 11 DraftKings fantasy football
This graphic measures quarterback efficiency in terms of their ability to use their given drives to consistently score points. True Drive Success (Y-axis) rate uses empirical Bayes estimation to create a fitted version of raw drive success rate, which is raw scoring drives divided by total offensive drives. Expected Points Added per drive (X-axis) is a measure of a player’s ability to provide more (or less) than the expected points, based on nflfastR’s expected points model, on a given set of plays. It is normalized to a value between zero (worst) and one (best). This graphic measures quarterback efficiency in terms of their ability to use their given drives to consistently score points. True Drive Success (Y-axis) rate uses empirical Bayes estimation to create a fitted version of raw drive success rate, which is raw scoring drives divided by total offensive drives. Expected Points Added per drive (X-axis) is a measure of a player’s ability to provide more (or less) than the expected points, based on nflfastR’s expected points model, on a given set of plays. It is normalized to a value between zero (worst) and one (best).
  • Kyler Murray’s improbable Hail Mary completion might be fresh in fantasy gamers’ heads, and Murray is doing spectacular things as a rusher. But he’s not affecting the game on a per-play or per-drive basis at the same level of Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes, who should be the leaders in the MVP at this point in the season. Mahomes continues his otherworldly scoring efficiency, converting drives into touchdowns at the highest rate in the league.
  • Only three active quarterbacks have led touchdown drives on 40% of their drives this season: Mahomes, Rodgers and Cousins, who has crept into the top 10 in expected points added per play among quarterbacks as well.
  • With just three starts under his belt, Tua Tagovailoa ranks an incredible sixth in quarterback expected points added, but 27th in true drive success rate. If he can pull the touchdown rate up just a little bit, the Dolphins could be a lethal team heading into the playoff.
  • If the Steelers hold onto the top seed in the AFC while only losing a handful, expect Ben Roethlisberger (who has had a better season from an efficiency standpoint than many believe) to get more than a few MVP votes. Roethlisberger ranks middle of the road in expected points added per play but ranks sixth in true drive success rate, boosting his overall score in the metrics highlighted in this chart

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Skill Player Opportunities for NFL DFS Picks + Lineups (Click Graph to Enlarge)

nfl dfs fantasy football
True Weighted Opportunity Share is a variant of Weighted Opportunity Rating, a metric created by 538’s Josh Hermsmeyer to combine a player’s share of team targets and share of team air yards into a single metric. True Weighted Opportunity share uses empirical Bayes estimation to estimate a player’s ‘true’ target share, based on the team’s sample of targets, and a player’s ‘true’ air yard share, based on the team’s sample size of air yards. As the season progresses, the error bars, which represent the 95% credible interval for the metric, will shrink, indicating the more certainty in the model. Raw weighted opportunity rating is indicated by the red dots.
  • Adam Thielen has overtaken Terry McLaurin for the second spot on the true weighted opportunity share (tWOPR) leaderboard, becoming just the second player to have a true share of their team’s passing volume above 30%.
  • Evan Engram continues to quietly creep up the opportunity share chart for tight ends and running backs (chart on the right), now ranking seventh among all non-wideouts in that metric. He’s on a bye this week but remains a solid mid-level tight end once the Giants return to action in week 12.
  • After a quiet start to the season, and despite a rough week 10 outing, Austin Hooper has had five receptions in three of his last four games and now ranks 10th among tight ends in tWOPR. In better weather days expect Hooper to be heavily featured in Baker Mayfields low-volume pass attack.
  • The current running back leader in true weighted opportunity share is Alvin Kamara, as expected, but things get weird after that. Next on the list among running backs: J.D. McKissic (completely unexpected), Aaron Jones (expected), Mike Davis (unexpected), James White (somewhat expected) and Rex Burkhead. If there was ever a good indicator that the running back position has been wacky this year, this list is it.
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NFL DFS Picks: High-Value Opportunities (Click Graphs to Enlarge)

nfl dfs quality opportunity week 11 fantasy football
Quality Opportunities and Quality Opportunity Share are measures of high-value usage for daily fantasy football. A target, on average, is worth significantly more than a non-goal-line rush in any type of scoring system that uses point per reception, so Quality Opportunities combine targets and goal-line rushes into one high-upside opportunity metric. An advanced version of the metric also includes light-front carries and only on-target (catchable) targets. The chart will be updated as the data becomes available. True Quality Opportunity Share measures the player’s percentage of team Quality Opportunities and fits it to a historical mean using empirical Bayes estimation.

nfl dfs week 11

  • In spite of a (relatively, for him) stat line in week 10, Davante Adams continues to run away with the quality opportunity share title this season. He’s the only player earning 30% of his team’s quality opportunities when regressed for sample size, and he has a nearly 4-percentage-point lead on his next closest competitor, DeAndre Hopkins.
  • The big six of elite wideouts starts with Adams and Stefon Diggs (the leader in raw quality opportunities), Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, the aforementioned Hopkins and McLaurin, who now ranks seventh among all players in quality opportunities.
  • Darren Waller may have had a quiet afternoon last Sunday against Denver, but continues to smash his fellow tight ends in quality opportunity share, ranking sixth among all players in that metric.
  • Jakobi Meyers has skyrocketed up the quality opportunity share list (chart on the right), ranking just behind McLaurin (and just ahead of Cooper Kupp) in weighted percentage of the Patriots’ passing attack. Make no mistake, Meyers is the absolute best option in the New England passing attack, and it’s not particularly close.
  • Though Austin Ekeler is getting closer to returning, look out for Kalen Ballage in a revenge-game narrative against his former team, the Jets. The sample size is obviously very small, but Ballage currently ranks fourth among all running in quality opportunities per game as a Charger.

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Condensed Passing Offenses for NFL DFS Picks + Stacks (Click Graph to Enlarge)

air yards dfs targets fantasy football
The condensed offenses chart uses True Weighted Opportunity Share (see above) to find passing attacks that are focused on distributing significant pass volume to their top two or three play makers. The width of the bars represents each team’s relative pass volume, measured by comparing raw passes per game and raw air yards per game. Wider bars represent higher-volume pass offenses. When used in tandem with identifying fantasy-friendly future game scripts, the condensed offenses chart can help daily fantasy football players make informed decisions about theoretical variations in volume or receiver stacks to target. As an example using the chart above, a lineup with Adam Thielen should expect to capture roughly 33% of the Vikings’ passing game. Alternatively, if one were to predict that Thielen to see less volume than he did in previous weeks, according to this chart the next reasonable assertion would be that Justin Jefferson (using the bar chart on the left) and then Irv Smith (using the bar chart on the right) would be in line to receive a bulk of that opportunity.
  • Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, despite being a part of a relatively low-volume passing offense, continue to command a large majority of the Vikings’ pass volume. In spite of not catching a touchdown (while Thielen caught two), Jefferson was lethal Monday night, reeling in eight passes for 135 yards. It was his fourth game (in nine as a pro) with over 100 yards receiving.
  • With Flacco at the helm, Denzel Mims and Jamison Crowder have become the primary target hogs for the Jets. Breshad Perriman may have had the best stat-line the last time we saw this team, but look for Mims and Crowder to retake the production lead in week 11.
  • The Colts and Buccaneers continue to distribute the ball in such a varied way from week to week that it remains almost impossible to nail down who the primary option will be each game. One thing is clear in Tampa Bay, however: Antonio Brown will be highly involved in the passing game at the expense of former target hogs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
  • As Alex Smith continues to impress as the starter in Washington, McKissic joins Logan Thomas and McLaurin as the tertiary option in Washington’s passing attack. McKissic will continue to be a complementary, yet vital checkdown option for Smith when he’s under pressure.

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NFL DFS Picks: Bell Cow Backs (Click Graph to Enlarge)

week 11 nfl dfs DraftKings FanDuel
The RB elusivness chart is a measure of running back effectiveness over usage-time (total touches). Any players who appear above the blue shaded area are outperforming the historical trendline for the position, while players below the line are underperforming compared to their historical counterparts. Each season, only a few backs emerge from the pack and shift towards the top-right of the chart. These backs should be considered the true “workhorse” NFL backs and can be used as a starting point for identifying cash-game “locks” at the running back position.
  • He may have disappointed fantasy gamers a week ago, but Aaron Jones remains right at the upper edge of elusiveness, indicating he’s likely just as explosive as he’s always been. He’s not getting quite as much usage as we’d like, but he remains a solid  home-run hitter in a consistently strong offense. His matchup with the Colts this week isn’t ideal, but the combination of a poor week 10 and a negative matchup in week 11 should make Jones a high-upside, low-owned play on the week 11 slate.
  • Ronald Jones continued his quietly-effective season with a not-so-quiet 98 yard touchdown scamper. Possibly more importantly, the play came after an early-game fumble, meaning coach Bruce Arians trusted Jones enough to get back on the field (Arians consistently benches fumbling backs), and Jones delivered in a huge way. Jones is off the main slate this week, but he’ll be a fantastic option whenever the Buccaneers are expected to playing with the lead.
  • The Colts continue to utilize a hot-hand approach at running back, and if this chat’s any indicator, the best rusher has actually been Jordan Wilkins, who is clustered with premier receiving backs and premium handcuffs such as Ekeler, Tony Pollard, and J.K. Dobbins. Wilkins could likely be very effective with more touches.
  • The Raiders still don’t want to use Josh Jacobs the way he deserves to be utilized, with Devontae Booker continuing to steal quality opportunities from the second-year stud running back despite continued brilliance in the efficiency department on the second-highest workload in the NFL. Jon Gruden may be overthinking the running back touches.

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PFF Grade Net Advantages (Click Graph to Enlarge)

week 11 nfl dfs
The PFF Net Advantage Chart measures personnel matchups with distinct advantages or disadvantages versus their upcoming opponent. Each graph represents a distinct “phase” of the game for which PFF grades teams. The “Net Advantage” is a comparison scaled version of each team grade to their opponent’s comparable scaled defensive grade. As an example, “Pass Block Advantage” is calculated by determining the difference between an Offense’s team pass-block grade versus their opponent’s defensive pass-rush grade. Overall Advantage is a comparison of a team’s overall grade versus their opponent’s overall grade. “Composite Advantage” is a weighted combination of all other advantages, with greater weight given towards passing advantages. Only advantages/disadvantages with a standard deviation above 1, or below -1 are shown. All non-pictured personnel matchups can be considered a toss-up. These grades do not account for injuries.
  • Get ready to play Dalvin Cook everywhere this weekend. The Vikings look poised to torch the Dallas defense, if this chart is any indication. Another week, another great daily fantasy football play for Cook.
  • It looks like it might be a great week to fire-up Cam Newton and the rest of the New England rushing attack, who get the Houston defense this weekend. The Patriots have the highest composite advantage of the week and the second-highest run advantage. The Texans are bad at defending the things New England does best, and that’s a boon in daily fantasy football.
  • Pittsburgh has no business losing to the Jaguars, but it looks like the relative strengths of the Jaguars’ defense (defending the run, stopping primary wideouts) aligns with some of the Steelers’ relative offensive weaknesses.
  • Playing Derrick Henry against a Baltimore defense that hasn’t been nearly as dominant as the 2019 iteration has more upside than many might think, as the Titans carry the third highest net run advantage on the daily fantasy football main slate. He could be a great tournament NFL DFS pick in Week 11.
  • Tagovailoa will be tested in a major way against a vaunted Denver Broncos in Week 11 that completely shut down the Las Vegas Raiders a week ago. Only the Jaguars carry a lower composite advantage (the combination of all offensive metrics vs. all relative defensive metrics, weighted towards passing advantages)

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Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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