The Week 11 NFL DFS Data Deep Dive looks into the advanced metrics you need to know in order to make informed daily fantasy football decisions. Matt Savoca takes a look behind the curtain of his process, delivering the visualizations and proprietary statistics along with some quick-hitter thoughts that he uses to prepare for his weekly Main Slate Matchups column, published every Thursday, right here on Awesemo.com. Let’s dig into the data from Week 10 as we look ahead to Week 11 NFL DFS picks for the daily fantasy football season and NFL DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week 11 Data Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks
Team Efficiency (Click Graph to Enlarge)
- No offense to the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers, but the best team in the NFL is the Chiefs, who rank well above average in expected points per drive, expected points allowed per drive and expected points added per play. Their league-average ranking in defensive per-play efficiency is absolutely overcomeable even in a one-game, winner-take-all scenario like a playoff matchup. The Super Bowl champs are more poised to repeat than any Super Bowl winner in recent memory.
- The Los Angeles Rams have squeezed into the upper-right quadrant on both charts, indicating they’re playing efficient football on a per-drive and per-play level on both sides of the ball. The Rams made relatively easy work of the Seahawks last week and now rank sixth in the NFC conference standings at 6-3.
- The injury to Drew Brees will absolutely be difficult to overcome for the New Orleans, but that shouldn’t stop the defense from ranking in the upper tier of teams in both expected points allowed per drive and EPA allowed per play. So long as Jameis Winston plays just average football, the Saints should be able to maintain their playoff pace and could even hold their place (second) in the NFC standings.
- A tepid congratulations to Joe Flacco, who has now pushed the Jets into the “above-average offense” category (on a per-play basis). It’s the first time the Jets have been above average on either side of the ball on either of the charts. Things are really looking up in the meadowlands. The Jets still stink, but they stink slightly less than they did earlier in the season.
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Team Aggressiveness (Click Graph to Enlarge)
- Despite a worse-than-mediocre place in the standings, the Texans continue to be an aggressive, pass-oriented offense that will likely continue to generate production for daily fantasy football gamers (when they’re not playing in monsoon-like weather).
- The Titans fell squarely into the “fast and run-oriented” (lower-right) quadrant with a lethargic game against the Colts last Thursday. Tennessee would likely benefit by taking more deep shots with A.J. Brown and Corey Davis, which in turn should create more space for Derrick Henry to operate on the ground.
- One team to keep an eye on in the coming weeks is New Orleans, who has been as conservative as ever with Brees at the helm (and Michael Thomas injured). It won’t be surprising, however, if Winston significantly boosts the downfield aggressiveness of the New Orleans offense in the coming weeks. The Saints have nowhere to go but up in that metric.
- It doesn’t appear that Kirk Cousins and the Vikings push many edges from an efficiency or pace standpoint, choosing instead to slow games down with their methodical, rush-based attack. But with Cousins continuing to finish drives with touchdowns (see Quality QB Play below), the Vikings have a chance to be the most productive offense from the slow, run-oriented (bottom-left) quadrant in the second half of the season.
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Quarterback Efficiency (Click Graph to Enlarge)
- Kyler Murray’s improbable Hail Mary completion might be fresh in fantasy gamers’ heads, and Murray is doing spectacular things as a rusher. But he’s not affecting the game on a per-play or per-drive basis at the same level of Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes, who should be the leaders in the MVP at this point in the season. Mahomes continues his otherworldly scoring efficiency, converting drives into touchdowns at the highest rate in the league.
- Only three active quarterbacks have led touchdown drives on 40% of their drives this season: Mahomes, Rodgers and Cousins, who has crept into the top 10 in expected points added per play among quarterbacks as well.
- With just three starts under his belt, Tua Tagovailoa ranks an incredible sixth in quarterback expected points added, but 27th in true drive success rate. If he can pull the touchdown rate up just a little bit, the Dolphins could be a lethal team heading into the playoff.
- If the Steelers hold onto the top seed in the AFC while only losing a handful, expect Ben Roethlisberger (who has had a better season from an efficiency standpoint than many believe) to get more than a few MVP votes. Roethlisberger ranks middle of the road in expected points added per play but ranks sixth in true drive success rate, boosting his overall score in the metrics highlighted in this chart
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Skill Player Opportunities for NFL DFS Picks + Lineups (Click Graph to Enlarge)
- Adam Thielen has overtaken Terry McLaurin for the second spot on the true weighted opportunity share (tWOPR) leaderboard, becoming just the second player to have a true share of their team’s passing volume above 30%.
- Evan Engram continues to quietly creep up the opportunity share chart for tight ends and running backs (chart on the right), now ranking seventh among all non-wideouts in that metric. He’s on a bye this week but remains a solid mid-level tight end once the Giants return to action in week 12.
- After a quiet start to the season, and despite a rough week 10 outing, Austin Hooper has had five receptions in three of his last four games and now ranks 10th among tight ends in tWOPR. In better weather days expect Hooper to be heavily featured in Baker Mayfields’ low-volume pass attack.
- The current running back leader in true weighted opportunity share is Alvin Kamara, as expected, but things get weird after that. Next on the list among running backs: J.D. McKissic (completely unexpected), Aaron Jones (expected), Mike Davis (unexpected), James White (somewhat expected) and Rex Burkhead. If there was ever a good indicator that the running back position has been wacky this year, this list is it.
NFL DFS Picks: High-Value Opportunities (Click Graphs to Enlarge)
- In spite of a (relatively, for him) stat line in week 10, Davante Adams continues to run away with the quality opportunity share title this season. He’s the only player earning 30% of his team’s quality opportunities when regressed for sample size, and he has a nearly 4-percentage-point lead on his next closest competitor, DeAndre Hopkins.
- The big six of elite wideouts starts with Adams and Stefon Diggs (the leader in raw quality opportunities), Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, the aforementioned Hopkins and McLaurin, who now ranks seventh among all players in quality opportunities.
- Darren Waller may have had a quiet afternoon last Sunday against Denver, but continues to smash his fellow tight ends in quality opportunity share, ranking sixth among all players in that metric.
- Jakobi Meyers has skyrocketed up the quality opportunity share list (chart on the right), ranking just behind McLaurin (and just ahead of Cooper Kupp) in weighted percentage of the Patriots’ passing attack. Make no mistake, Meyers is the absolute best option in the New England passing attack, and it’s not particularly close.
- Though Austin Ekeler is getting closer to returning, look out for Kalen Ballage in a revenge-game narrative against his former team, the Jets. The sample size is obviously very small, but Ballage currently ranks fourth among all running in quality opportunities per game as a Charger.
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Condensed Passing Offenses for NFL DFS Picks + Stacks (Click Graph to Enlarge)
- Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, despite being a part of a relatively low-volume passing offense, continue to command a large majority of the Vikings’ pass volume. In spite of not catching a touchdown (while Thielen caught two), Jefferson was lethal Monday night, reeling in eight passes for 135 yards. It was his fourth game (in nine as a pro) with over 100 yards receiving.
- With Flacco at the helm, Denzel Mims and Jamison Crowder have become the primary target hogs for the Jets. Breshad Perriman may have had the best stat-line the last time we saw this team, but look for Mims and Crowder to retake the production lead in week 11.
- The Colts and Buccaneers continue to distribute the ball in such a varied way from week to week that it remains almost impossible to nail down who the primary option will be each game. One thing is clear in Tampa Bay, however: Antonio Brown will be highly involved in the passing game at the expense of former target hogs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
- As Alex Smith continues to impress as the starter in Washington, McKissic joins Logan Thomas and McLaurin as the tertiary option in Washington’s passing attack. McKissic will continue to be a complementary, yet vital checkdown option for Smith when he’s under pressure.
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NFL DFS Picks: Bell Cow Backs (Click Graph to Enlarge)
- He may have disappointed fantasy gamers a week ago, but Aaron Jones remains right at the upper edge of elusiveness, indicating he’s likely just as explosive as he’s always been. He’s not getting quite as much usage as we’d like, but he remains a solid home-run hitter in a consistently strong offense. His matchup with the Colts this week isn’t ideal, but the combination of a poor week 10 and a negative matchup in week 11 should make Jones a high-upside, low-owned play on the week 11 slate.
- Ronald Jones continued his quietly-effective season with a not-so-quiet 98 yard touchdown scamper. Possibly more importantly, the play came after an early-game fumble, meaning coach Bruce Arians trusted Jones enough to get back on the field (Arians consistently benches fumbling backs), and Jones delivered in a huge way. Jones is off the main slate this week, but he’ll be a fantastic option whenever the Buccaneers are expected to playing with the lead.
- The Colts continue to utilize a hot-hand approach at running back, and if this chat’s any indicator, the best rusher has actually been Jordan Wilkins, who is clustered with premier receiving backs and premium handcuffs such as Ekeler, Tony Pollard, and J.K. Dobbins. Wilkins could likely be very effective with more touches.
- The Raiders still don’t want to use Josh Jacobs the way he deserves to be utilized, with Devontae Booker continuing to steal quality opportunities from the second-year stud running back despite continued brilliance in the efficiency department on the second-highest workload in the NFL. Jon Gruden may be overthinking the running back touches.
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PFF Grade Net Advantages (Click Graph to Enlarge)
- Get ready to play Dalvin Cook everywhere this weekend. The Vikings look poised to torch the Dallas defense, if this chart is any indication. Another week, another great daily fantasy football play for Cook.
- It looks like it might be a great week to fire-up Cam Newton and the rest of the New England rushing attack, who get the Houston defense this weekend. The Patriots have the highest composite advantage of the week and the second-highest run advantage. The Texans are bad at defending the things New England does best, and that’s a boon in daily fantasy football.
- Pittsburgh has no business losing to the Jaguars, but it looks like the relative strengths of the Jaguars’ defense (defending the run, stopping primary wideouts) aligns with some of the Steelers’ relative offensive weaknesses.
- Playing Derrick Henry against a Baltimore defense that hasn’t been nearly as dominant as the 2019 iteration has more upside than many might think, as the Titans carry the third highest net run advantage on the daily fantasy football main slate. He could be a great tournament NFL DFS pick in Week 11.
- Tagovailoa will be tested in a major way against a vaunted Denver Broncos in Week 11 that completely shut down the Las Vegas Raiders a week ago. Only the Jaguars carry a lower composite advantage (the combination of all offensive metrics vs. all relative defensive metrics, weighted towards passing advantages)
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