NFL DFS Picks: Week 13 DraftKings + FanDuel Top Stacks + Lineup Build

Let’s dig into the data from Week 12 as we look ahead to Week 13 NFL DFS picks for the daily fantasy football season and NFL DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel. The Week 13 NFL DFS Data Deep Dive looks into the advanced metrics you need to know in order to make informed daily fantasy football decisions. Matt Savoca takes a look behind the curtain of his process, delivering the visualizations and proprietary statistics along with some quick-hitter thoughts that he uses to prepare for his weekly Main Slate Matchups column, published every Thursday right here on Awesemo.com.

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Week 13 Data Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks

Team Efficiency (Click Graph to Enlarge)

fantasy football — The above two charts are two measures of team efficiency. The left chart measures offensive per-drive ability on the Y-axis and defensive per-drive ability on the X-axis. The right chart measures per-play ability. Both graphs use the expected points model popularized by the nflfastR data package.

The Saints suddenly look like they have some defensive prowess in both per-play and per-drive efficiency, which is most likely due to their shellacking of the quarterback-less Denver Broncos. Still, they now rank in the upper tier of defenses in the NFL.
With Bradley Roby suspended for the remainder of the season, the Texans may become the most exploitable defense in the league. They rank bottom 10 in defensive per-drive efficiency and dead last in per-play efficiency
Despite their recent team woes, the Buccaneers still rank in the upper echelon of offenses in per-play efficiency. They’re just not finishing drives with touchdowns at an adequate rate. The defense, after being torched by Patrick Mahomes, now ranks just above league average in per-play efficiency.
They’re not necessarily the most talented team across the board, but if these charts had to pick an eventual winner of the NFC East, it’s the Washington Football Team, who has an elite defense in terms of expected points subtracted, and an average offense in per-play and per-drive efficiency. They also have by far the best point differential in the division.
The Steelers, after playing Robert Griffin III and Trace McSorley for four quarters, have begun to pull away from the pack in defensive expected points allowed per drive. The injury to Bud Dupree is devastating for that unit, however. Dupree is close to irreplaceable at linebacker.

Team Aggressiveness (Click Graph to Enlarge)

nfl dfs fantasy football — The above chart measures team aggressiveness. The X-axis is Air Yards per second (Air Yards per Play/Seconds per Play) as a measure of pace and deep passing aggressiveness. True Neutral Early-Down Pass Rate (Y-axis) measures the number of times a team chooses to pass the ball on first or second down while within one possession. The raw number is fitted to its historical mean by using empirical Bayes estimation. This chart updates on Wednesdays when FootballOutsiders updates their pace data.

The Panthers remain an outlier team from a pace and play-style perspective, playing extremely slowly but also consistently passing more than expected (and deeper than expected). We won’t see them in Week 13, but Robby Anderson should be extremely fantasy viable down the stretch, especially on FanDuel and DraftKings if D.J. Moore is forced to miss time with an ankle injury.
The Rams continue to transform to a much more pass-happy team in the second half of the season, which, not coincidentally, has affected their run game for the better. They’re simply a more efficient offense when passing more frequently.
The Texans’ loss of Will Fuller to suspension could mean Deshaun Watson is forced to play slower, and throw deep less. The entire Houston offense could suffer without a bona fide primary receiver, unless Brandin Cooks can step up in a major way. And he’ll be insane chalk on DraftKings and FanDuel in Week 13.
It’s jarring to see the Saints as one of the slowest, most run-oriented teams in the league, but that’s where they are with Taysom Hill under center. It’s led to wins, so don’t expect it to change until Drew Brees returns to the fold.

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Quarterback Efficiency (Click Graph to Enlarge)

Week 12 DraftKings fantasy football — This graphic measures quarterback efficiency in terms of their ability to use their given drives to consistently score points. True Drive Success (Y-axis) rate uses empirical Bayes estimation to create a fitted version of raw drive success rate, which is raw scoring drives divided by total offensive drives. Expected Points Added per drive (X-axis) is a measure of a player’s ability to provide more (or less) than the expected points, based on nflfastR’s expected points model, on a given set of plays. It is normalized to a value between zero (worst) and one (best). This graphic measures quarterback efficiency in terms of their ability to use their given drives to consistently score points. True Drive Success (Y-axis) rate uses empirical Bayes estimation to create a fitted version of raw drive success rate, which is raw scoring drives divided by total offensive drives. Expected Points Added per drive (X-axis) is a measure of a player’s ability to provide more (or less) than the expected points, based on nflfastR’s expected points model, on a given set of plays. It is normalized to a value between zero (worst) and one (best).

Can you spot the two Giants logos nearly adjacent to each other? Colt McCoy, in limited backup duties Sunday, played nearly as efficiently as Daniel Jones has this season on a per-play and per-drive basis. The sample size is small, but the Giants could be just as effective offensively with McCoy as they have been with their starter. That’s an indictment of Jones, to be clear, not necessarily praise (yet) for McCoy.
Nick Mullens has officially been the most efficient 49ers quarterback this season. Though Jimmy Garoppolo still has been ever so slightly better on a per-play basis, more of Mullens’ drives are ending touchdowns. There’s nothing more important.
Somebody, please rescue Sam Darnold. He may never be a star or even quality starter (we would have said the same about Ryan Tannehill two seasons ago), but Darnold is nowhere near as bad as this chart indicates. He needs to escape the clutches of Adam Gase.
Mike Glennon was a notable improvement in efficiency for the Jaguars in Week 12, but Gardner Minshew still has the best efficiency among the trio of Jaguars starters in 2020. This article’s author thinks that once Minshew’s thumb (which likely affected Minshew’s accuracy more than Minshew himself is letting on) is physically ready, he should be back under center in Jacksonville.
Unsurprisingly, McSorley rates out better than Griffin in these metrics. Though the sample size is significantly smaller (something true drive success rate, the Y-axis, accounts for), McSorley actually has the same efficiency marks as Drew Lock, and on a per-drive and per-play basis, has he outplayed starters such as Nick Foles and Darnold.

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Skill Player Opportunities for NFL DFS Picks + Lineups (Click Graph to Enlarge)

It’s nice to see Michael Thomas in the top five wideouts in usage once again. Finally healthy, Thomas has commanded the vast majority of targets from the now run-oriented Saints, to the detriment of Alvin Kamara. But Thomas is back in the elite receiving volume category, as he’s been for the last two seasons.
With Adam Thielen unable to suit up last Sunday, Justin Jefferson didn’t have the most catches. He did, however, dominate the Viking’s pass volume, scoring twice, and now ranks in the top 20 in true weighted opportunity share. He’s had an incredibly impressive rookie season.
Denzel Mims is a top-10 receiver in usage. Though the production hasn’t been otherworldly, the heavy pass volume (a solid proxy for talent) is already there. The Jets likely have a stud wideout on their hands, just waiting for a quarterback to feed him the ball accurately. He could be a viable option on FanDuel and DraftKings for Week 13.
With another massive workload on Monday night, D.K. Metcalf takes a commanding lead in the Seahawks’ receiving volume battle, now ranking top 10 at the position. If you told me at the beginning of the season that Metcalf would have more of his team’s volume than DeAndre Hopkins, I never would have believed you.

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NFL DFS Picks: High-Value Opportunities (Click Graphs to Enlarge)

nfl dfs quality opportunity week 11 fantasy football — Quality Opportunities and Quality Opportunity Share are measures of high-value usage for fantasy football. A target, on average, is worth significantly more than a non-goal-line rush in any type of scoring system that uses point per reception, so Quality Opportunities combine targets and goal-line rushes into one high-upside opportunity metric. An advanced version of the metric also includes light-front carries and only on-target (catchable) targets. The chart will be updated as the data becomes available. True Quality Opportunity Share measures the player’s percentage of team Quality Opportunities and fits it to a historical mean using empirical Bayes estimation.

nfl dfs week 13 running backs fanduel — This chart breaks down running back quality oppportunities into it’s two main components: targets (the first part of each player’s bar) and goalline carries (the second part of the bar). The chart on the left ranks players by number of quality opportunities per game, while the char on the right ranks players by their share of team quality opportunities in games that they played.

Watching Justin Herbert consistently feed Keenan Allen this season has been a truly beautiful thing. Allen is the only player who can come close to Davante Adams in share of team quality opportunities, and he is the league’s only hope of holding off Adams from the eventual league lead in targets despite Adams missing multiple games earlier in the year.
Despite having fewer of his team’s quality opportunities thanks to Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce remains far and away the most valuable tight end in the NFL. He’s the only tight end close to 100 targets at this point in the season.
The only team with four players in the top 40 in quality opportunities is the Carolina Panthers. They’ve fed their big four more than any other team, with Curtis Samuel now cresting 60 opportunities, tied with Tennessee’s A.J. Brown.
Austin Ekeler was utilized in a picture-perfect way for FanDuel and DraftKings players last weekend, commanding nearly 20 touches, many of the quality variety. An ascent into the top five active backs is a surprise for even the biggest Ekeler enthusiasts.

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Condensed Passing Offenses for NFL DFS Picks + Stacks (Click Graph to Enlarge)

air yards dfs targets fantasy football stacks draftkings fanduel — The condensed offenses chart uses True Weighted Opportunity Share (see above) to find passing attacks that are focused on distributing significant pass volume to their top two or three playmakers. The width of the bars represents each team’s relative pass volume, measured by comparing raw passes per game and raw air yards per game. Wider bars represent higher-volume pass offenses. When used in tandem with identifying fantasy-friendly future game scripts, the condensed offenses chart can help fantasy football players make informed decisions about theoretical variations in volume or receiver stacks to target. As an example using the chart above, a lineup with Adam Thielen should expect to capture roughly 33% of the Vikings’ passing game. Alternatively, if one were to predict that Thielen to see less volume than he did in previous weeks, according to this chart the next reasonable assertion would be that Justin Jefferson (using the bar chart on the left) and then Irv Smith (using the bar chart on the right) would be in line to receive a bulk of that opportunity.

Fuller’s suspension will obviously shake up the Texans’ place in the top two standings (chart on the left). Expect a precipitous drop. With Randall Cobb out several weeks, it’s likely Keke Coutee’s time to shine in Houston.
The Jets are shockingly one of the most consolidated passing offenses in football, with their top receiving duo and trio both ranking in the top five in their respective categories. Mims, Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman could actually be a quality receiving corps if they were a part of a quality offense.
Another surprise at the top of the leaderboards is New England. With Julian Edelman on injured reserve and the COVID-19 reserve list, Jakobi Meyers, Damiere Byrd and N’Keal Harry have taken command of the receiving game (granted, it’s a low-volume passing attack), with a top-10 ranking in top duos and trios, as well.
The Rams still have a big two in Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, but overall, the duo makes up significantly less of the Rams’ overall passing attack than it once did. The Rams simply spread the ball around much more than they used to.

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NFL DFS Picks: Bell Cow Backs (Click Graph to Enlarge)

week 13 nfl dfs DraftKings FanDuel Cash Running Backs — The RB elusiveness chart is a measure of running back effectiveness over usage-time (total touches). Any players who appear above the blue shaded area are outperforming the historical trendline for the position, while players below the line are underperforming compared to their historical counterparts. Each season, only a few backs emerge from the pack and shift towards the top-right of the chart. These backs should be considered the true “workhorse” NFL backs and can be used as a starting point for identifying cash-game “locks” at the running back position.

I hope you listened when I suggested pivoting to Derrick Henry from Dalvin Cook on Saturday’s “Contrarian Plays” show with Alex Baker on the Awesemo YouTube channel. Henry had one of his slate-breaking performances against the Colts and is ascending to mythical status in both usage and elusiveness. It’s been a special season for him.
Even though his usage has suffered slightly, and he’s still a part of one of the league’s best aerial attacks, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has officially had a strong rookie season on his first 175-plus career touches. Being clustered with Kamara, Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt is a great sign for the player’s overall outlook.
Ekeler picked up right where he left off in the elusiveness category and still is ahead of the historical trendline in elusiveness on nearly 100 touches in a mostly lost season.
Even after another quality performance in the Bears’ Week 12 loss to Green Bay, David Montgomery’s 2020 continues to be disrespected and underappreciated. He’s Mike Davis in a terrible offense. It might look unexciting, but Montgomery’s elusiveness on a bad team has been impressive. Put some respect on his name and look into him on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Despite consistently high praise from his coaching staff and another goal line touchdown in Week 12, Gus Edwards ranks well below the historical trendline in elusiveness on a per-touch basis. I guess breaking tackles is less important when your primary job is to simply fall forward (from the 1-yard line into the end zone)

PFF Grade Net Advantages (Click Graph to Enlarge)

week 13 nfl dfs matchups data draftkings fanduel — The PFF Net Advantage Chart measures personnel matchups with distinct advantages or disadvantages versus their upcoming opponent. Each graph represents a distinct “phase” of the game for which PFF grades teams. The “Net Advantage” is a comparison scaled version of each team grade to their opponent’s comparable scaled defensive grade. As an example, “Pass Block Advantage” is calculated by determining the difference between an Offense’s team pass-block grade versus their opponent’s defensive pass-rush grade. Overall Advantage is a comparison of a team’s overall grade versus their opponent’s overall grade. “Composite Advantage” is a weighted combination of all other advantages, with greater weight given towards passing advantages. Only advantages/disadvantages with a standard deviation above 1, or below -1 are shown. All non-pictured personnel matchups can be considered a toss-up. These grades do not account for injuries.

Despite his disappointing production a week ago, the DraftKings and FanDuel community should be jumping right back on the horse with Cook. Shocking absolutely nobody, it’s usually a good idea to play the best running back in the game right now, who sees the most usage and is up against one of the worst defenses in the league. The Vikings have a distinct advantage across the board offensively.
And once again, Henry sets up as an obvious first pivot on DraftKings and FanDuel with the Titans playing a Browns defense that hasn’t played as efficiently (on a per-play basis) as it did to begin the year. The Titans have the No. 1 overall net run advantage in the league this weekend.
It was great to see Raheem Mostert back on the field last weekend. In a possible shootout against the Bills in Week 13, Mostert might make a fantastic contrarian play on FanDuel and DraftKings, especially with the 49ers ranked No. 2 in the NFL in net run-game advantage this coming weekend.
With both teams’ offenses ranked near the bottom of the league across the board in nearly all net metrics this weekend, The Washington – Pittsburgh matchup looks like it could end up being an ugly defensive battle. Scoring could come at a premium next Monday night.

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Author

Matt Savoca

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].