The Week 14 NFL DFS Data Deep Dive looks into the advanced metrics you need to know in order to make informed daily fantasy football decisions. Matt Savoca takes a look behind the curtain of his process, delivering the visualizations and proprietary statistics along with some quick-hitter thoughts that he uses to prepare for his weekly Main Slate Matchups column, published every Thursday right here on Awesemo.com. Let’s dig into the data from Week 13 as we look ahead to Week 14 NFL DFS picks for the daily fantasy football season and NFL DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week 14 Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks
All charts reflect data from the past eight weeks of play. Click graphs to enlarge.
Team Efficiency
- Anyone who read previous iterations of this column should be less surprised at Washington’s upset win over Pittsburgh. Washington’s defense, especially on a per-play basis, is playing outlier-level, lights-out football. The team they’re most similar to on a per-drive and per-play basis is, coincidentally, the Steelers.
- Also unsurprising was New England’s smashing of the Chargers on Sunday afternoon. Despite Justin Herbert’s impressive numbers, the advanced analytics indicate he’s leaving points on the field. The Patriots rank well ahead of Los Angeles on both sides of the ball on a per-play and per-drive basis.
- The Bills’ offense is special. Josh Allen’s immense development as a quarterback is one of the best storylines of 2020, and the addition of Stefon Diggs has been arguably the best move of the 2020 offseason. They’re a top-three offensive unit on a per-play and per-drive basis.
- As expected, the Bengals have receded to the absolute bottom of the league without Joe Burrow (though this graph includes his final three starts). The Bengals now rank among the bottom five offenses in the league on a per-drive basis.
- We target the NFC South in season-long fantasy football because of offensive efficiency division-wide. With the exception of Atlanta (and only on per-drive expected points added), the entire division ranks at or above average in per-play and per-drive efficiency.
Team Aggressiveness
- Here we are in Week 14, and the Rams are fast-paced now. For a team that started at the bottom-left of this chart to begin the season, Sean McVay seems to be putting much more trust in his passing offense during the second half of the season. They’re one of the top eight most aggressive offenses by these metrics in the NFL.
- Even without Saquon Barkley, the first-place Giants continue to have some of the most run-dominated play calling in the NFL. They’re clustered with Denver in a group of boring teams that play somewhat fast.
- The Saints and Packers are two bona fide playoff teams but feel no need to put their foot on the proverbial gas offensively. They’re both at or below average in both key aggressiveness metrics.
- While his performance as a passer was incredibly impressive Sunday, don’t be fooled by Baker Mayfield’s giant stat line in Week 13. This is still a run-oriented offense that doesn’t play with pace. They rely on efficiency, which they had in spades against the Titans last week.
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NFL DFS Picks: Quarterback Efficiency
- It’s sad to say, but Carson Wentz has entered the “true backup” territory of this chart, with efficiency metrics comparable to Case Keenum, Trace McSorley, and P.J. Walker. It’s Jalen Hurts time, Eagles fans.
- Wentz isn’t the only Pennsylvania quarterback struggling over the last eight weeks. Ben Roethlisberger’s efficiency has dropped significantly after a hot start. It’s really no surprise their unbeaten streak came to an end heading into Week 14.
- So, does anyone want to talk about Philip Rivers? Incredibly, over the last eight weeks, Rivers is clustered with the very best quarterbacks in the NFL. Based on this chart’s metrics, Rivers is the player most comparable to Patrick Mahomes in this eight-week sample size.
- We’re probably not making enough of just how good Taysom Hill has been thus far. Hill is getting the Saints to the end zone at a nearly identical rate to Drew Brees, though Brees’ per-play efficiency still ranks well ahead of Hill’s.
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NFL DFS Picks: Skill Player Opportunities
- Though Alvin Kamara bounced back from a production standpoint in Week 13, his reduction in receiving opportunity has allowed J.D. McKissic to lead the position true weighted opportunity share (though it should be noted that this metric will slightly inflate passing-down specialists). Austin Ekeler’s share of his team’s passing offense has outweighed Kamara’s as well
- In a fascinating twist of fate, Stefon Diggs and his de facto replacement, Justin Jefferson, are neck and neck in the opportunity ranks over the last eight weeks. It seems both sides got what they wanted from the blockbuster offseason trade. Jefferson’s teammate, Adam Thielen, isn’t far behind the aforementioned duo either.
- Corey Davis is another surprising member of the top 10. From an opportunity standpoint, Davis ranks well ahead of teammate A.J. Brown, which makes Davis’ explosive Week 13 performance even less surprising.
NFL DFS Picks: High-Value Opportunities
- There are few workhorse backs who see a ton of empty opportunities (with varying degrees of success): Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliott. Henry’s quality opportunities per game are similar to Chase Edmonds and Jamaal Williams, not exactly the first people you’d say when you think of bell-cow backs.
- In a sign of the Steelers’ pass-oriented nature, all four of Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool and Eric Ebron rank in the top 18 in total targets over the last eight weeks.
- Their offense hasn’t been efficient by any stretch, but at least the Lions have fed Marvin Jones with an alpha-level workload. Jones ranks 13th in the NFL in quality opportunities since Week 6.
- Leonard Fournette, despite varied production, has quietly surpassed Ronald Jones in quality opportunities and quality opportunity share over the past half-season. Jones barely ranks inside the top 40 running backs in quality opportunity share.
- From an opportunity standpoint, there aren’t a lot of running backs fantasy gamers can rank ahead of David Montgomery. Montgomery has responded to his critics with a quality sophomore season and now ranks top 10 in quality opportunities at his position over the last eight weeks. Montgomery and his talented teammate, Allen Robinson, are the only two bright spots on a dilapidated Bears’ offense.
Condensed Passing Offenses
- It sounds bizarre to write it, but Cole Beasley is a must-start receiver in the efficient Bills offense while John Brown is out. Gabriel Davis has seen increased looks and certainly has sky-high potential long-term, but Beasley’s role is only increasing as the season continues.
- With D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel added to the reserve/COVID-19 list, the Panthers’ offense should immediately coalesce around Robby Anderson and Christian McCaffrey. Expect a massive workload for both against the Broncos in Week 14.
- Jamison Crowder may have scored multiple touchdowns last Sunday, but don’t let the fantasy points fool you. Crowder ranks third on his own team in weighted opportunity, with big-play receivers Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman continuing to gobble up a higher share of the Jets’ passing offense.
- Fantasy gamers need to learn Chad Hansen’s name quickly. Hansen played 98% of snaps and earned seven targets in his Texans debut. He appears primed to take over third receiver duties in Houston with Randall Cobb still on injured reserve.
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NFL DFS Picks: Bell Cow Backs
- Ezekiel Elliott’s three stuffed runs at the goal line on Tuesday night epitomized his downtrodden 2020 season. Elliott’s elusiveness is well below expectation compared to the historical trendline.
- Washington still managed to pull off the upset, but their offense missed Antonio Gibson’s presence dearly after he was ruled out with a toe injury. Gibson’s elusiveness versus expectation is the most impressive of any rookie besides James Robinson (who we’ve waxed poetically about in previous versions of this column.)
- The Raiders’ running game was a complete non-factor without Josh Jacobs Sunday. Jacobs continues to have a significantly underrated season, mainly because he doesn’t catch many passes and hasn’t scored many touchdowns. His quality as a rusher can’t be questioned.
- Baltimore needs to hand the backfield reigns over to J.K. Dobbins. From an elusiveness standpoint, Dobbins continues to out-perform all of his Ravens’ running back teammates.
PFF Grade Net Advantages
The PFF Net Advantage Chart measures personnel matchups with distinct advantages or disadvantages versus their upcoming opponent. Each graph represents a distinct “phase” of the game for which PFF grades teams. The “Net Advantage” is a comparison scaled version of each team grade to their opponent’s comparable scaled defensive grade. As an example, “Pass Block Advantage” is calculated by determining the difference between an Offense’s team pass-block grade versus their opponent’s defensive pass-rush grade. Overall Advantage is a comparison of a team’s overall grade versus their opponent’s overall grade. “Composite Advantage” is a weighted combination of all other advantages, with greater weight given towards passing advantages. Only advantages/disadvantages with a standard deviation above 1, or below -1 are shown. All non-pictured personnel matchups can be considered a toss-up. These grades do not account for injuries.
- This might be the biggest Davante Adams DraftKings and FanDuel smash week of them all. With the Packers ranking No. 2 in pass block advantage (on the main slate) and No. 1 in pass advantage, composite advantage and overall advantage. Don’t get cute; he belongs in your DraftKings and FanDuel cash lineups in Week 14.
- It also looks like an easy week to dial up Montgomery once again on FanDuel and DraftKings. The Texans can’t stop anybody on the ground, and though the Bears are not necessarily a juggernaut on the offensive line, they rank No. 1 in run advantage on the main slate.
- It’s hard not to get excited about Russell Wilson, needing a win and bouncing back against the wayward Jets, who don’t even have a defensive coordinator to help the team prepare. Expect fireworks from Wilson, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf this weekend in DraftKings and FanDuel GPPs.
- Finally, leaving Henry off of rosters looks like a grave mistake as well. After being stymied by an impressive Cleveland squad, the Titans should be able to do whatever they want offensively against the lowly Jaguars. Tennessee ranks top four on the main slate in Overall Grade Advantage, Offensive Advantage and Team Run Advantage. Titans stacks should be extremely popular in DraftKings and FanDuel tournaments.
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Nice write up! I noticed there is an “NA” under WOPR for all the detroit players. Howcome?
Fixed. Thanks for the headsup, NTRAN!