One week in the books, and now we set our sights on Week 2 of the NFL season. The opening week had a string of upsets as usual, and already the pressure is on certain teams to respond. On the DFS side there were some key injuries, which could open up some value as we start to breakdown this Sunday main slate. There are 13 games on the schedule, so we are going to have plenty of options at each price point and a ton of teams to attack.
Favorite Game to Target
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
Similar to last week we have a handful of games that could evolve into shootouts, so don’t be surprised to see some big scores in the DFS world. Looking over the betting odds, we have a bunch of game totals sitting in the high 40s, while two games cross the 50-point mark. This Falcons – Cowboys matchup is the highest over/under, sitting at 53.5.
The Falcons are coming off a disappointing effort at home against the Seahawks where they lost 38-25. Clearly, Atlanta has defensive issues once again as Seattle was able to throw for over 300 yards and four touchdowns through the air. This forced Matt Ryan to throw an insane 54 times, and that resulted in 450 yards despite the losing effort. It is not to say the game script follows that path, but at the same time part of the appeal is that Atlanta once again could find themselves having to play catch-up. Using Ryan and his weapons as a top-end stack this week makes a ton of sense. The Awesemo Top Stacks Tool has the Falcons coming in with the third-highest chance of being the top stack on the slate.
Dallas is also are looking for a rebound performance after losing on Sunday Night Football to the Rams. Unlike Atlanta, they didn’t have trouble on defense holding the Rams to 20 points but fell short on the offensive side with just 17 points of their own. The main area of concern has to be the offensive line which isn’t nearly as strong as recent years with some injuries and key personnel gone. In Week 1 Dak Prescott took three sacks and faced a lot of pressure from that Rams front. The good news is they are facing an Atlanta defense that we already discussed has issues of their own. Dallas should have a much easier time moving the ball, and with Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield and the wide receivers on the outside, the stacking options are immense. The Cowboys come in as the No. 1 team in the Top Stacks tool this week, which is not surprise given the matchup.
Easiest Game to Avoid
San Francisco 49ers vs New York Jets
On the other side of the spectrum, the 49ers and Jets face off in a game with a 41.5 total. San Francisco is also a touchdown favorite, so this game is expected to be ugly with the 49ers winning pretty comfortably. Naturally, this makes it an easy game to get away from, and data doesn’t show much to like.
First let’s talk about the Jets, who are quickly out to an early lead for worst team in the league. Their offense was terrible against the Bills, and Sam Darnold finished with a lowly 215 yards passing despite trailing throughout. If that wasn’t bad enough, the 49ers defense is one of the toughest in the league, and there is simply no reason to attack this Jets team. You could make a case for a San Francisco skill player here or there, but they rarely get into back-and-forth games because of their defense. They come into the game very banged up at receiver, and now all-world tight end George Kittle is dealing with a knee injury and may be limited if he plays. This is an easy fade on a 13-game slate, and it is possible I will have zero exposure to this game.
Quick Targets
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott – $6,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
I already broke down the appeal of this Cowboys – Falcons game above, so it is no surprise to see Prescott as one of my favorite quarterbacks. He leads a Cowboys offense that has an implied total of 29 points, which is the highest on the slate. They are a 4.5-point favorite, but I don’t worry about a negative game script because this game will have plenty of opportunities for scoring. Prescott isn’t going to blow you away running the ball, but similar to last week he should be in line for a handful of scrambling opportunities, which can really boost the floor. He will be a popular choice given this game environment, but on a 13-game slate you can leverage elsewhere and attack what is surely one of the best matchups available.
Mitchell Trubisky $5,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
I had a lot of exposure to Trubisky last week, and through three quarters it looked like an incredibly poor decision. Luckily, the Bears were able to stage a late-game rally, and Trubisky’s final stat line (242 yards, three touchdowns) was more than enough to return value. It wasn’t the best performance of the week, but at his basement price it unlocked a lot combinations with the extra salary at other positions.
This week the Bears get the Giants secondary, which is one of the worst in the NFL. On Monday night the Giants allowed Ben Roethlisberger to tear them apart for three touchdowns through the air, and there is little reason to think improvements will be made. Given this matchup and the fact that Trubisky’s price hasn’t moved from the mid-$5,000 range, this is my preferred pay-down option at quarterback once again.
Editor’s Note
Awesemo’s Player Prop Stat Projections are predicting Mitchell Trubisky Taylor to have a few more passing yards than his Vegas totals suggest. There is some variation in the lines across sportsbooks, so use OddShopper to take advantage of this possible money-making player prop.
*Betting odds as of Friday, Sept. 18 at 5:30 EST
Running Backs
Derrick Henry $7,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Last week the Titans were not on the main slate, so this will be our first chance to target Henry. It couldn’t come with a better matchup against the Jaguars defense, who Henry absolutely torched the last time he saw them in Week 12 of last year. There is no way the Jaguars defense is now better equipped to slow him down, and the Titans are almost a double-digit favorite, which is the game script we want.
In Week 1 Henry didn’t get much going, but the volume still led him to an effective output. He carried the ball 31 times for 116 yards and added three catches, which actually is an exciting development. If Henry gives us anything through the air, it’s a bonus considering he should be in line for 25 carries more often than not. The sky is the limit with that type of volume against this defense, and Henry is firmly in play in all formats.
Nyheim Hines $5,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
The Colts backfield lost Marlon Mack for the season last week, so it will be up to Hines and rookie Jonathan Taylor to pick up the workload. We already saw that Hines is going to be a major part of this offense with his 15 touches last week. Seven of those were carries, but the real value lies in his abilities to rack up catches out of the backfield. Hines caught all eight of his targets last week for 45 yards, and that immediately gives him a solid floor, especially on full-PPR sites.
We still aren’t sure exactly how this running back time share will go, but Hines figures to benefit if the Colts are trailing late in the game. Also, Philip Rivers constantly looks to those checkdown options, and that means a ton of work for Hines. It’s only one week, but seeing the Chargers utilize their running backs way less in the passing game really showed that it was mostly Rivers steering that checkdown ship. I doubt that will change in Week 2, and it should be another game of double-digit touches for Hines in the backfield.
Also Considering – Todd Gurley
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams $8,100 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
It was only one week of the season, but Aaron Rodgers to Adams looked like the most dangerous combo in the league. Adams was targeted a massive 17 times against Minnesota, which was good for almost a 40% target share. Obviously that is unsustainable, but Adams figures to get massive volume all season with the way this offense is constructed. He draws a matchup this week with a Lions defense that allowed Trubisky to throw three touchdowns.
It doesn’t take a genius to realize a guy coming off a 17-target game in a good matchup is in play, so ownership is going to be a factor. Adams is north of 20% in our premium ownership projections, and I believe in small fields he could possibly be north of 30%. That is something to keep in mind as you build because we want to make sure we differentiate elsewhere or pivot off Adams if we want to get away from that ownership on certain teams. In cash I think you just use him, but in tournaments consider the entire lineup to determine where and when Adams fits in.
Christian Kirk $4,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
One of the best things about Week 2 of the NFL season is that generally people overreact to what we saw in Week 1. It is not to say we shouldn’t consider what we saw, but at the same time it is one game and things will certainly adjust week to week. Maybe the biggest disappointment in Week 1 was Kirk, who racked up a goose egg despite five targets.
Even though Kirk had no points in Week 1, there are a lot of factors working in his favor. First off, he drew a terrible matchup against the 49ers defense, and the Cardinals were content to keep him on Richard Sherman’s side and allow other guys to make plays. He still is a viable deep threat, and the production will be there despite the slow start. This week he draws a Washington Football Team with a much weaker secondary that can be exploited. They do have a quality pass rush, but if the line holds up or Murray is able to escape, I would expect some deep shots to Kirk in this game. I believe Week 1 will be an outlier, and this makes him a great buy-low candidate this week.
Also considering – Allen Robinson, Michael Gallup
Tight End
Evan Engram $5,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
We have Travis Kelce on the main slate for the first time this year, so he leads off the tight end prices in Week 2. The nice thing about this position is there are various options at a bunch of different prices, so you can build a lot of ways and still find viable plays.
Just below the top tier, Engram sits at $5,300 going into a matchup with the Bears. Last week Engram drew a brutal matchup with the Steelers and hauled in just two receptions on seven targets. The seven targets were a positive, however, and I believe he will be a staple of the Giants offense. He is a tough matchup for any defense, and the game script could force a lot of catch-up for a team that is going to be struggling. With the disappointing Week 1, it’s a nice time to buy low on a talent like Engram who currently projects to be sub-5% owned on this slate.
Also Considering – Hayden Hurst
Defense
Bears $3,700 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
As we talk about often, the key to picking a DFS defense is the opportunities for those big time plays. A defensive touchdown can be a borderline slate breaker, and although they are tough to predict, we still can try our best. Teams that generate pressure on the quarterback certainly give themselves more chances for turnovers, and that is how we can rack up the points. Obviously, they also can get some sacks to boost the floor, but the pressure leads to the slate-breaking turnovers that we are all after. With that concept, I am immediately drawn to the Bears defense, drawing a home matchup against the Giants. The Giants offensive line is going to struggle all year, and we saw on Monday Night the Steelers pressure Daniel Jones a ton, leading to a pair of interceptions. I expect a similar result with this Bears front, so I will get some exposure to Chicago this week.
Dolphins $2,100 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel
Last week Washington’s defense was the flat minimum, and by punting that position it unlocked extra salary at the skill spots. Now, it doesn’t always work in terms of them returning 15 points like we saw, but I still look to save salary with defense when possible. We have the Dolphins sitting at $2,100 going against a Bills team that is talented but still led by Josh Allen. Although Allen is a play maker and a guy who scores a ton, he is also on of the more erratic players who has shown time and time again he will give the ball away. In Week 1 Allen played well but fumbled twice, and his boom/bust nature is a welcomed site for opposing DFS defense. At this price point, particularly on DraftKings, a few turnovers will get the job done ,and Allen will provide those opportunities with the way he plays.
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