Week 6 of the NFL season is on tap, and once again we have several games possibly impacted by COVID. As it stands we are still dealing with an 11 game main slate but keep an eye on the status as several teams are working thru potential positive cases. We should have clarity by the time we get to lock, and the hope is all the games will be good to go without interruption. In addition to the COVID situation we have a bunch of players sporting Q tags with injuries to deal with, so this is a slate with a lot of moving parts.
Favorite Game to Target
Lions at Jaguars
Sometimes games between two bad teams can result in big time fantasy production and that is the case this week with the Lions traveling to Jacksonville. Both of these teams have issues which is why they have a combined two wins so far this season. The defenses are both suspect and that is one of the many reasons I think you can load up on this game in DFS. Vegas has the game sitting with the Lions as 3 point favorite with an over under of 54.5.
For the Lions they have multiple weapons on the outside that are going to make quality pairings with Matthew Stafford. With Kenny Golladay being reasonably priced he is probably the ideal option, but don’t forget about TJ Hockenson who has emerged as another big time target for Stafford this season. With the running back situation completely scrambled with three backs getting work you have to attack target these pass catchers against the Jags who are dead last in passing yards allowed per attempt.
On the other side we have the Jaguars offense who are forced to put up points each week to try and stay in games. They are a little banged up on the outside so keep an eye on the status of both DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault as they are solid targets but could open up a ton of value on the outside if they sit. In the backfield James Robinson has proven himself to be a workhorse back and even in negative game scripts he is still getting work thru the passing game.
So far this season Robinson has 19 receptions on 22 targets and that really helps raise the floor as the Jaguars often fall behind. The weapons on the outside are going against a Lions secondary that is also weak ranking 24th on the year in passing yards per attempt. Both of these teams should put up points and with the spread being close it’s a recipe for a shootout to unfold.
Easiest Game to Avoid
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Not all bad games produce big time DFS targets and this game illustrates that. The Jets are 0-5 on the year and also 0-5 against the spread which just shows how far off they’ve been. They have absolutely nothing going for them and even against an average at best team in the Dolphins they are almost a double digit underdog. On offense Joe Flacco will once again be under center and it’s a team that is incredibly risky to target with the lack of firepower on this side of the ball.
For the Dolphins they draw a great matchup, but at the same time the Jets are so bad they may not need to really be aggressive. This game should be over late in the 4th and that could lead to a lot of runs and lower output for Ryan Fitzpatrick and this passing attack. For that reason, I would rather take a one off than a game stack here as someone on Miami should have a day, but volume could limit the production of the offense as a whole. With 11 games on the slate I will look elsewhere and want little to do with this AFC East matchup.
Quick Targets
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson $7,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
We get things started with Lamar Jackson, who comes in as the highest priced quarterback on the slate. Normally I don’t like to pay up with QB being such a deep position, but this is a sneaky spot and we will still have plenty of salary to spend at other positions. Jackson draws the Eagles and despite the road game Baltimore is north of a touchdown favorite. Lamar has been quiet of late especially on the ground, but I believe the same upside as the 2019 is there.
Last week Baltimore crushed the Bengals and we saw just 3 yards on the ground for Jackson which is extremely atypical. He dropped back 37 times which was nice, but the volume was inefficient and that led to a modest output. In a game like this that could stay closer I think we see Jackson much more involved on the ground and when he gets going there isn’t a defense out there that can stop him. This really is more a buy low on a guy who has been quiet lately rather than something I see specifically in this matchup. I will plug in Lamar on some teams and figure out the rest later as his ceiling is unlike anyone else at the QB position.
Matthew Stafford $6,300 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Not going to surprise people that Stafford makes the article as he is the QB on the favored team in the game I like the most. The Lions draw the great matchup against the Jags secondary and Stafford isn’t shy about throwing it all over the place, especially if they are trailing. With the running attack not being a focal point of the offense anyway its just another reason to like Stafford and these Lions pass catchers. Price wise he is reasonable and even if he garners ownership you have plenty of ways to differentiate around a Lions stack this week.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry $7,300 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Going to be popular, but how can you not like the spot for Henry this week. He and the Titans are a 3.5 point favorite at home against the Texans who desperately need a win. Tennessee is coming off an impressive Tuesday night showing against the Bills where Henry poured in another two touchdowns on the ground. His abilities in the redzone and the massive workload make him unique in an era of timeshare backfields. So far this season Henry has rushing attempts of 31,25,26 and 19 and should get a few targets in the passing game for good measure.
Matchup wise Houston is allowed 4.7 yards per carry which is sitting 24th on the season, and Henry should have the advantage here. Even in tougher matchup than this Henry is viable because he gets so much volume and redzone work he can easily get it done while being inefficient. In a competitive division game, he could easily push for 25+ carries and that is a spot you don’t want to miss out on.
David Montgomery $5,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
This is another candidate for potentially one of the highest owned players on the slate. Currently we have Montgomery projected for 19% ownership on DraftKings and I think that actually could rise before kickoff. He is reasonably priced across the industry and draws a Carolina defense who is allowing 5.4 yards per rushing attempt. That ranks 31st in the league and Montgomery should have all the work he can handle, especially if the Bears get ahead in this one. With Tarik Cohen sidelined and Montgomery being the main carrier on the ground anyway he has everything you could want in a matchup and he is a guy I expect to see in both cash and tournament lineups this week.
Also Considering – James Robinson
Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen $7,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Keep an eye on the status of this game as Atlanta has some potential COVID issues earlier in the week. It looks like everything is good to go, but you want to make sure before going to these players. If the game is on then Thielen figures to be highly owned on this slate and its for good reason. He draws a fantastic matchup against a Falcons secondary who is as helpless and banged up as any across the league.
Atlanta is allowing 8.2 yards per passing attempt which is 31st in the entire league. They have lost numerous pieces of their secondary to injury and they weren’t doing much to limit teams even when healthy. Thielen is clearly the top option for this Vikings passing attack with 44 targets thru the first five weeks. That wont change here and with Dalvin Cook hurt we could see even more work thru the air if the Vikings fall behind. This is one of the best ways to pay up on the entire slate and I like Thielen in all formats.
AJ Brown $5,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Going to continue to buy the return of AJ Brown here until the sites catch up to his price. He returned on Tuesday Night against the Bills and immediately retook his place atop this Titans passing attack. Brown has only two games so far this season, but the 8 and 9 targets show he will receive volume in this offensive attack. He draws a solid matchup against a Houston defense allowing 7 yards per passing attempt and also will have to be focused on stopping Derrick Henry on the ground. This should open up big time chances for Brown on the outside and his price is just too low for this situation.
Also considering – Kenny Golladay, Marquise Brown
Tight End
Zach Ertz 5,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
If you want an aggressive tourney play this week at tight end then take a look at Zach Ertz in this Eagles offense. The matchup with Baltimore is far from ideal and the Eagles really are thin at both wide receiver and tight end due to injuries. On one hand that means a lot of focus will go to Ertz from this Ravens defense, but regardless of situation you have to imagine he is heavily involved. If they are trailing and they are expected to be he should be a primary target for Wentz while playing catchup.
The production has been limited from Ertz so far this season, but he still has 5+ targets in every game and I don’t see that changing here. Ownership will be limited because of the matchup and this is a reasonable price tag for a guy we know has upside. If the Eagles can find a few other weapons to keep defenses honest then Ertz should be in line for much bigger production and that could start here despite the tough situation. If you don’t go here this week still keep Ertz in mind going forward as both Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson are close to returning.
Also Considering – TJ Hockenson, Trey Burton
Defense
Dolphins $2,900 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Any team playing the Jets are going to be viable as a DFS defense but finding the Dolphins sub 3k makes them even more appealing. The Jets have nothing going for them on offense as they are banged up and running Flacco out there so it’s easy to see why targeting them could be useful. The Dolphins so far this season have done a good job forcing turnovers with four picks and four fumbles recovered thru the first five games. They will have ample opportunities for those big time plays again against what is clearly the worst team in the league. Given that the Dolphins are sitting as a 9.5 point favorite the Jets will be throwing and the game script furthers the opportunities this defense has for DFS output.
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