Week 6 isn’t even over yet but that doesn’t mean we can’t take an early look at the DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft pricing for week 7 and give out some NFL DFS Picks along the way. We’ve got a few early stand out options at each position and in each price range. Early on, it’s looking like there are a couple bargains out there, including Josh Jacobs and TY Hilton.
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Don’t forget to check out the NFL Strategy Show with Dave Loughran and Manny Lora as they recap Week 6 and look ahead to Week 7.
*FanDuel and FantasyDraft pricing isn’t out yet, but we’ll update later on in the week.
NFL DFS Quarterbacks
- Shootout alert! Sure, Jared Goff had like 32 yards passing yesterday, but that was up against the top pass DVOA defense in the NFL. This week, he gets the Atlanta Falcons and their shockingly bad pass defence (29th in DVOA). With a 54 total, this game should be a barn burner. No chance the Atlanta defense stops this Rams offense in a dome. $6,200 on DraftKings and $32 on Yahoo seems like a fair price. Depending on how ownership shakes down, you might want to pivot to similarly priced Matt Ryan in game stacks if he goes overlooked.
- There aren’t a lot of bargains on this slate, so finding a priced-down quarterback is easier said than done. Mitch Trubisky has been terrible this year, but is expected to come back after a week off and the bye. The Saints have a pass-funnel defense and Trubisky has been known to light it up from time to time, randomly winning DFSers slates based off 40-point performances. I am less confident this week, given his accuracy issues and the Saints’ pace of play, but he is worth a dart throw in large GPPs as a bargain at low ownership.
NFL DFS Running Back
- Looks like the Yahoo pricing guy got drunk on Sunday night. Dalvin Cook is the max salary at $40 against the Detroit Lions. Ezekiel Elliott is just $28. It is going to be a pass for me on Cook this week at that price, fire him on DraftKings instead at a reasonable $8,000.
- Leonard Fournette is finally getting some pricing respect! But he’s still reasonable on both sites, at $7000 on DraftKings and $32 on Yahoo. Fournette, of course, is averaging just over 20 carries and almost six targets per game this year, and gets a matchup against the lowly Bengals run defense that ranks 26th in the NFL. He’ll be chalk on both sites, but for good reason.
- Josh Jacobs is waaaaaayyy too cheap on both sites. The Packers are bad at defending the run (28th in DVOA). Josh Jacobs is looking more and more like a featured back each week. At $5,000 on DraftKings and $25 on Yahoo, he’s approaching near lock territory. The Packers are on a short week and the Raiders are coming off a bye. If Kerryon Johnson goes ham tonight, Jacobs will be the highest owned player on the slate.
NFL DFS Wide Receivers
- Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks continue to get priced down on DraftKings and Yahoo. Cooper Kupp is obviously Jared Goff’s favorite option thus far, with 66 targets compared to 72 combined for Woods and Cooks. Cooks has the best matchup of the three, going up against Isiah Oliver, who has allowed the fifth-most yards per snap this seasons and a 136.2 passer rating.
- T.Y. Hilton at $5,900 on DraftKings? That’s a misprice in a 48-point totaled game, up against the pass-funnel Texans defence, who are banged up at cornerback right now. Hilton was on a Week 6 bye and should be healthy and good to go. Before his injury in Week 3, he had 25 targets in 2.5 games.
- John Brown’s $5,500 price point on DraftKings and $20 seems exceedingly reasonable, coming off a bye with a matchup against the Miami Dolphins coming up. Miami is giving up the most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing WR1s and ranks dead last in DVOA at defending the position. Brown is averaging almost eight targets per game and he’s a safe bet for a 6 and 80 line with some slate-breaking upside should the Dolphins find a way to stay in it.
NFL DFS Tight Ends
- The Arizona Cardinals are this year’s tight end flow chart. They’re allowing–get this–seven fantasy points per game more than the next worst defense at defending the tight end. Evan Engram is one of the league’s best tight ends and he’s ‘optimistic that he’ll be able to play this week after missing last week’s Patriots game. Here are some opposing tight end lines against the Cardinals so far.
- Austin Hooper: 8-117-1
- Will Dissly: 8-57-1
- Mark Andrews: 9-112-1
- J. Hockenson: 6-131-1
- Greg Olsen: 6-75-2
