Identifying edges in the betting market can be tough. That’s why OddsShopper by Awesemo.com is here to help. This article focuses on my favorite NFL prop bets for the Sunday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers, and which sportsbook offers the best number for them. Let’s get to it!
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1. Jared Goff UNDER 274.5 Yards
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If you were looking for a textbook example as to why OddsShopper is the premier tool for a sports bettor, this is it. Goff enters this evening with a relatively-healthy projection of 264.2 yards from Awesemo. The 49ers are depleted up and down their defensive unit, specifically in their secondary, as slot corner K’Waun Williams (knee sprain) and Richard Sherman (Achilles) will again be out for Week 6. Combined that with any sort of viable pass rush with the slew of injuries across the 49ers defensive line, and Goff should have plenty of time in the pocket to operate tonight.
And yet, the 274.5 number on DraftKings and SugarHouse leaves ample room for us to play the under, although the price has jumped up to -118. I’m still willing to pay it for one major reason: Sean McVay has been calling run plays at an astonishing 51.5% rate on the year. He’s also playing a third consecutive road game against a divisional opponent, so we’ve got plenty of reasons to short Goff’s yardage prop tonight. Let’s ride the under for a unit.
2. Cam Akers OVER 29.5 Rushing Yards
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Did I mention the Rams have been running a lot? The three-headed committee of the Rams was back in action Week 5, as the rookie Akers returned to the fold for the first time since Week 2. With the backfield muddied, let’s take a sneak peak at Awesemo’s rushing projections for each tonight in order to compare to them to the best prices on OddsShopper:
While Darrell Henderson saw the most work in Week 5 with a 43% snap share and 15 carries, Akers still saw nine carries and should continue to have that work ramped up as he works his way back from a rib injury. If we simply plug Akers’ 4.3 yards per carry with near double-digit rushing attempts, you’re looking at an easy over on 28.5 rushing yards despite the tough matchup. While it may be difficult to differentiate these backs for DFS purposes tonight, I believe there’s clearly a winner with Akers in the betting market.
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