Welcome to “The Pivot,” where each week we’ll highlight some of the chalkiest options at each position and explore potential alternatives at similar price points. The most popular players are never guaranteed to produce, which is why we can use this to gain in edge in DFS tournaments.
It’s important to note, however, that many of these popular players are still excellent fantasy options. Just because there may be some strong pivots doesn’t mean the chalk should be faded. We’re simply evaluating the viability of some of the comparably priced players. Let’s get started…
The Chalk
Malcolm Brown ($4,300, 22.7%)
The Rams’ backup running back inherit a sizable workload this week with Todd Gurley already ruled out. While Gurley has handled the bulk of carries on the season, Malcolm Brown has earned 26 attempts, and rookie back Darrell Henderson has seen one total look on the season which came all the way back in week 1. Brown should serve as the Rams’ lead back this weekend with Henderson spelling him throughout the day, but the matchup with San Francisco is anything but easy. The 49ers rank fifth in run defense DVOA (FootballOutsiders) and boast a top 10 run defense grade according to ProFootballFocus. On the season, San Francisco is allowing a stingy 81.8 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per attempt.
Brown has tallied nine looks inside the red zone this season, which is encouraging when you consider the Rams own a 26.8-point implied total at home. It’s a matter of whether you buy into the 49ers’ defense or not — I certainly do. Cheap lead running backs are hard to come by each week, though, which will inflate Brown’s ownership on this 10-game slate. Los Angeles has struggled to run the ball this season, resulting in only 23 carries per game. In 2018 they ran the ball a whopping 28.7 times per contest. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brown disappoint in a big way this week — especially if he doesn’t find the end zone.
The Pivots
Carlos Hyde ($4,400, 8.1%)
I was very surprised to see Carlos Hyde garnering much less attention than Brown despite drawing a much better matchup. Hyde is toting the rock 14.6 times per game this season while cracking 20 carries twice in five weeks. His overall production has been fine (4.2 YPA), but Hyde ranks a respectable 12th in avoided tackles (14) and 13th in yards after contact (214).
Hyde’s line has blocked well for him, too, ranking seventh in power success (83%) and sixth in stuffed rating (14.3%) (how often a rusher is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage). They’re also 13th in adjusted line yards (4.5).
The Chiefs’ defense, meanwhile, ranks 30th in run defense DVOA and 32nd in run defense rating (PFF). They just lost defensive tackle Chris Jones for the season, too, who was their highest graded lineman, according to PFF. Only the Jaguars have allowed more yards per attempt than the Chiefs (5.3), while only the Dolphins and Bengals are ceding more yards per game (155.8).
The Colts and Lions laid out a road map to success for competing with, or even beating Kansas City. Indianapolis handed the Chiefs their first loss last week by running the ball down their throats and controlling the time of possession game 37:15 to 22:45. Similarly, Detroit rushed for 186 yards against the Chiefs and finished with an 8-minute advantage in time of possession. Don’t get me wrong, Patrick Mahomes doesn’t need 9-minute drives to score, but opposing teams wearing down his defense will allow them to stay competitive. That’s where Hyde comes into play.
Duke Johnson ($4,100, 4.5%)
Duke Johnson presents more risk in the run game, but he’s been Houston’s superior back in terms of efficiency this season, averaging 6.4 YPA and leading the league yards after contact per attempt (4.34). He should be more involved in the run game, but Bill O’Brien has been adamant about limiting his workload for no good reason.
Nevertheless, the Texans boast a 25.5-point implied total in a game that owns a slate-high 55-point O/U. At $4,100 Johnson offers plenty of upside against a bottom-ranked run defense in what should be a competitive affair at Arrowhead Stadium (HOU +4). I’m not interested in playing Hyde and Johnson in the same lineup, but both possess plenty of individual appeal against an inferior, banged up Chiefs defensive front.
Adrian Peterson ($4,500, 5.6%)
The Redskins’ running game has been dismal this season, mostly due to falling behind early in difficult matchups. Three of the five teams they’ve faced rank top 10 in run defense DVOA (PHI, NE, CHI), while the Giants surprisingly rank 12th. The game script has consistently gotten away from them, but Sunday’s road matchup with Miami could finally provide the ‘Skins with an opportunity to establish the run.
Washington is a 3.5-point favorite in Bill Callahan’s first game as interim coach, and he has already emphasized that they will look to implement a run-heavy approach going forward. With Wendell Smallwood being behind Peterson in the backfield, it’s only reasonable to assume the ageless wonder will get first crack at shouldering the load.
The Dolphins have surrendered a behemoth 175.8 rushing yards per game (32nd) on 4.8 yards per attempt while ranking 31st in run defense DVOA. It makes sense for Washington to run the ball early and often — especially if Terry McLaurin sees shadow coverage from Xavien Howard. I don’t see this being a much riskier spot than Malcolm Brown, yet Peterson is currently attracting nearly one fifth of the ownership.
The Chalk
Leonard Fournette ($6,700, 28.8%)
I’ve recently dubbed Leonard Fournette the “Poor Man’s Christian McCaffrey” due to his stranglehold on the Jaguars’ run game and increasing involvement as a pass catcher. Fournette is nowhere near as talented as McCaffrey, but volume generally trumps efficiency, and Jacksonville’s lead rusher ranks second at his position in total touches (115) behind McCaffrey (of course). This puts Fournette in play almost every single week until his salary begins to reflect both his volume and production. $6,700 is simply too cheap for a back who’s averaging 25 looks per game on the year.
Fournette draws a tough matchup against the Saints, who held Ezekiel Elliott to 35 yards on 18 carries (1.9 YPA), Chris Carson to 52 yards on 15 carries (3.5 YPA) and Todd Gurley to 63 yards on 16 carries (3.9 YPA) this season. ProFootballFocus also gives New Orleans a top eight grade vs. the run. In Fournette’s defense, no running back has accumulated more yards after contact (406), and only McCaffrey has amassed more carries for more than 10 yards in 2019 (of course, again).
This isn’t to say Fournette shouldn’t be considered a top option this week; his volume and projected neutral/positive game script should mitigate the matchup and the Jaguars’ modest 22.8-point implied total. He’s projected to have the highest ownership of any player on Sunday’s main slate, though, so being underexposed could make sense. It’s at least worth exploring some alternatives in his price range…
The Pivot
Mark Ingram ($6,600, 4.8%)
I didn’t have much interest in Mark Ingram earlier in the week, but my tone has changed a bit since seeing his ownership compared to the likes of the similarly priced Fournette and Le’Veon Bell. Ingram isn’t seeing the same volume as Fournette, who ranks second among all running backs in touches, but he has been heavily involved in the Ravens’ offense, averaging 15 touches per game on the season. Ingram saw 14 carries against the Dolphins but wasn’t used in the fourth quarter during garbage time. He earned 16 carries and four targets in a one-score loss to the Chiefs. Ingram only carried the ball 12 times in a blowout loss to Cleveland but followed that performance up with 19 carries and 21 touches against the Steelers.
As you can see, John Harbaugh is using Ingram as his feature back in every game, and especially when the game script is positive or neutral. Not including week 1’s lopsided victory over Miami, Gus Edwards is averaging 5.3 attempts per game, and Justice Hill has registered only six carries since opening week. The Ravens boast a 29.8-point implied total, which is the highest of any team playing in week 6. They are 12-point favorites at home against the Bengals, who rank 26th in run defense DVOA and 25th in PFF’s run defense grade. Actually, only the Dolphins are coughing up more rushing yards per game than Cincinnati (167.6), as enemy rushers are averaging 5.0 yards per attempt through five weeks.
Ingram is hovering around only five percent ownership thanks to a price tag that’s comparable to Fournette and Bell. Is he only deserving of five percent in a game that could see him eclipse 20 carries and see several goal line opportunities against a bottom-ranked defense, though?
This could be an excellent spot to take a stand, especially considering Ingram ranks top 10 in YAC/A (3.41) and fifth in yards per attempt among 23 backs with at least 60 carries. He’s also top 10 in elusiveness, so it’s not like we’d be rostering a bad player just to be different. Ingram is having a strong season and his Ravens are projected to score the most points on the week.
