Week 11 kicks off in about 24 hours, and there are NFL DFS picks to be made and daily fantasy football advice to be given for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo contests. Greg Ehrenberg breaks down some of the key news in his Slant and Go article for your Week 11 DFS lineups on Sunday.
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Daily Fantasy Football: Week 11 DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks
Drew Brees Set To Miss Time Due To Injured Ribs
I have to believe that Jameis Winston will end up starting for the Saints. Sean Payton is yet to name a starter between Winston and Taysom Hill, although it stands to reason Winston will get the nod. Even with Winston starting, there is reason to consider Hill a play on FanDuel since he has tight end eligibility. I assume that Hill will play a handful of snaps at quarterback and get touches in the red zone. This makes him interesting at $4,500 on FanDuel at a position that is difficult to fill. Hill isn’t a consideration on DraftKings since he’s listed as a quarterback.
Winston is one of the my favorite quarterbacks for daily fantasy football. He isn’t the best quarterback in the world, but he isn’t as bad as most people think. He finished last season ranked 16th in QBR, so it’s fair to say he’s about average. What makes Winston fun is the variance he brings to the table. Every time he drops back, he has potential to make something great or terrible happen. He’s projecting for very low ownership, making him a good GPP stack with Michael Thomas. Thomas didn’t do a ton last week, but he did draw a couple of red zone targets from Winston. Of the 10 passes thrown by Winston after Brees got hurt, Thomas was targeted on five of them.
Edit: The latest news from Adam Schefter is that Taysom Hill will start at quarterback and that Winston is not involved in the game plan. I was not expecting this news. The main takeaway is that Hill is a must play on FanDuel for cash games with tight end eligibility. For GPP, he’s also the best play at the position by a wide margin. This also kills the potential value of pass catchers on the Saints since Hill is not known as a passer. Hill only has a total of 18 career pass attempts.
Will Mike Davis Rebound?
Davis was the stone-cold chalk last week, and for good reason. With Christian McCaffrey out, Davis was min price on DraftKings and underpriced on FanDuel. He was woefully underpriced everywhere for daily fantasy football. After busting last week, he’s shockingly projecting to garner ownership. It’s no where near the levels of last week but he’s still popular. How much exposure I want to Davis is going to come down to his health. The main reason he busted last week was because he missed a chunk of the second half with a thumb injury. The main appeal to Davis is his work in the passing game and his ability to rack up PPR points. If the thumb is still an issue, it could impact his ability to catch passes. If Davis is 100%, he’s one of my favorite plays against the Lions, who rank 25th in defensive DVOA.
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D’Andre Swift Takes Over As The Lions Starting Running Back
The chance to roster Swift at low ownership is gone after starting last week. Swift is proving himself as the most efficient runner on the Lions by averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season. This is now leading to extra snaps and touches. In his first start, Swift set season highs in rushing attempts and receptions. He’s poised to play a big role for the rest of the season, and the Panthers rank 25th in the league in run defense DVOA. Even though his price and ownership are a bit up from last week, it isn’t high enough. The early projections at Awesemo have Swift as one the week’s top running backs because of his uptick in usage. Swift should end up as one of the top daily fantasy football scorers in the second half of the season.
Edit: Swift was unexpectedly ruled out because of a concussion. Adrian Peterson will likely take his starting job back, making him a viable value play. He’s slightly preferable as a play on FanDuel since he probably won’t get a ton of work in the passing game.
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Davante Adams Questionable To Play With An Ankle Injury
Adams finally took a step back last week. After he was a monster for daily fantasy football purposes in three consecutive weeks, Adams scored under 20 DraftKings points against the Jaguars. Even though the matchup was ideal, I can’t fault Adams for a weaker-than-normal game. The wind was howling, and he briefly left the game due to an ankle injury. The game finished with 44 points scored, the second time in three weeks that the Packers played in a bad-weather game where the under hit. To a fault I haven’t gotten enough exposure to Adams over the last four weeks. Even with a tough matchup against the Colts this weekend, I think he’s the guy to pay up for on this slate as long as he’s healthy. Adams is averaging 13.2 targets in games he finishes this season.
Jakobi Meyers Going Overlooked
Early projections have Meyers around 10% ownership. Given his role in the Patriots’ offense since Julian Edelman got injured, he isn’t in enough lineups. Say what you want about Cam Newton lacking arm strength and not playing well this season, but it isn’t killing Meyers’ production. A lot of this is due to volume. In the last three games, Meyers has seen 10, 14 and seven targets. This is a ton of usage for him at his current salary across all sites. Even for cash games, Meyers is a strong option. Not only is his target share on the rise, Meyers is in a great matchup against the Texans. Houston is ranked 28th in defensive DVOA. Meyers is one of my favorite value plays on a slate that doesn’t feature many strong options for cheap.
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