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The Slant And Go: Can The NFL DFS Chalk Smash Again In Week 8?




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Week 8 of the NFL season is here, and there are NFL DFS picks and daily fantasy football DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo contests to get right into. Greg Ehrenberg breaks down some of the key news in his Slant and Go article for your Sunday lineups.


NFL DFS Picks: Week 8 Thoughts for DraftKings + FanDuel

Lineup Construction After All The Chalk Hit

Just about every chalk NFL DFS play went off on Sunday. From Kyler Murray to Davante Adams to Jamaal Williams, every popular play crushed. As a result, we could see inflated ownership on the top plays this week. Nobody wants to miss out and recency bias plays a big role in how the field goes about building lineups. It’s too early in the week to know what the top values and ownership will look, but last week’s results could lead to me playing more contrarian lineups in Week 8. Here is the general way I go about building my lineups. I am not strictly playing or avoiding chalk plays. Rather, I am evaluating what I perceive the chance of success of certain plays compared to how much the field is rostering a play. This is why the ownership projection tools are so valuable to my process.

Who Is Playing Running Back For The Seahawks?

Chris Carson sprained his foot during Sunday’s lose to the Cardinals and is week-to-week. It looks like he is more likely to sit than play this weekend. Without Carson, Seattle turned to Carlos Hyde and he put up a solid game. Hyde scored 16.6 DraftKings points and played most of the snaps after Carson went down. This makes it seem like Hyde is a great value, but he’s also dealing with an injury. Due to a hamstring injury, his status is up in the air. The next man up is Travis Homer, and guess what, he has a knee injury.

This could leave us in a spot where DeeJay Dallas is the only healthy back on the Seahawks. There isn’t much info on the rookie since he hasn’t played much but there are promising signs for his usage on Sunday. In the 12 snaps Dallas played against the Cardinals, he was targeted three times. He hauled in two of those passes for 18 yards. If the injury news break right, Dallas could see a healthy amount of work in the passing game, making him a good value at a discounted price.

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Aaron Jones As A Pivot Play

The Packers crushed the Texans over the weekend. Green Bay scored 35 points and almost all of the fantasy production came from Aaron Rodgers, Adams and Williams. The Packers find themselves in another easy matchup this week against the Vikings. They are favored by 6.5 points and the game has a 54-point total. All of this adds up to the Packers putting up a bunch of points on the board and being great options on DraftKings and FanDuel.

The main reasons for concentrated production from the Packers was because Jones was out. While we don’t have an injury update on him yet for Week 8, he appears more likely to play than sit. Jones reportedly wanted to play while the medical staff wanted to air on the side of caution. If he’s back, this takes Williams out of play. This could also mean less pass attempts as the Packers look to get Jones more involved. Assuming the Rodgers and Adams combo are chalk, playing Jones is a good way to find upside and leverage against the passing game. The Vikings rank 20th in Run Defense DVOA.

In Jerry Seinfeld Voice, “What’s The Deal With Michael Thomas?”

Seriously, what is the deal? Thomas missed most of the season with an ankle injury. When it looked like he was ready to return, he was suspended by the Saints for punching a teammate in practice. After his suspension, Thomas once again missed last week because of a hamstring injury. This situation doesn’t make much sense and it led to trade rumors swirling. Among the reports, Sean Payton took to Twitter to dunk on reporters.

Due to Payton’s comments on social media, it doesn’t look like the Saints are attempting to move on from Thomas. If he’s healthy enough to play, I doubt he will garner much ownership due to his current situation. After so much time off, I have to assume he’s 100% healthy if active. The Saints wouldn’t let Thomas play if he was serious risk of injuring himself again. His price is laughably cheap on DraftKings compared to his historical pricing. If Thomas is out, Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook become the players to target.

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The Browns Adjusting To Life Without Odell Beckham

Once again, Beckham is dealing with a serious injury. He tore his ACL on Sunday, ending his season and bringing into question if he can ever reach his lofty ceiling. In addition, the Browns remain without Nick Chubb, who is out at least two more weeks. I don’t buy into the narrative that Baker Mayfield and company are better as a team without OBJ. With that said, the NFL DFS situation is better with Chubb and Beckham out. Cleveland is in a great spot against the Raiders and the production is now much more concentrated. Las Vegas ranks 31st in Defense DVOA. Kareem Hunt is a player to build around again and Jarvis Landry is in line for an uptick in targets. If Austin Hooper is out, Harrison Bryant could play a significant role after catching a pair of touchdowns on Sunday.

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Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.

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