The NFL season is here, and there are NFL DFS picks and NFL DFS Week 5 DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo contests to get right into. Greg Ehrenberg breaks down some of the key news in his Slant and Go article.
The Slant and Go: NFL DFS Thoughts for DraftKings + FanDuel
What Happens With Cam Newton?
Newton is the first prominent player in the league that publicly tested positive for COVID. In order to play, Newton needs two consecutive negative COVID tests in order to play this weekend against the Broncos. This is what I was referring to the new value situation we have in NFL DFS. This isn’t something we have dealt with, and it’s not clear what will happen. Will Newton get cleared? If so, will the lack of practice effect him? It’s hard to know what to expect in an unprecedented situation. If Newton is out, we can look to Jarrett Stidham as a value option. He looked decent after taking over for Brian Hoyer on Monday Night Football and is extremely cheap for a quarterback.
Nick Mullens Creating Highlights For The Wrong Reason
Mullens threw the worst pass I have ever seen in an NFL game on Sunday night, and that might prevent him from ever starting in another NFL game. With the status of Jimmy Garoppolo still up in the air after he missed the last two games, the 49ers could end up starting C.J. Beathard this weekend. In relief of Mullens, Beathard looked competent on Sunday. He completed 14 of 19 passes for 138 yards, and the Dolphins’ defense doesn’t instill much fear. They are 31st in defensive DVOA and 28th in pass defense DVOA. At a cheap price, Beathard is another potential value option at quarterback this weekend if he ends up starting. He also has nice weapons for stacking between George Kittle and a now-healthy Deebo Samuel. I doubt this stack will see much ownership.
Nick Chubb Goes Down
With Chubb out for at least a month, I am confident that Kareem Hunt will come through as one of the top NFL DFS plays over the next stretch of games. From an efficiency standpoint, Hunt is having the best season of his career by averaging 5.5 yards per carry. He is getting a bit less work in the passing game than I expected coming into the season, but I expect this to change as he plays more snaps going forward. The Browns matchup this weekend against the Colts is no joke since Indianapolis ranks first overall in Defensive DVOA. However, this won’t prevent me from getting exposure to Hunt. His price is too cheap for his expected role.
Can The Patriots’ Defense Break Another NFL DFS Slate?
Flash back to a year ago. New England had the highest-priced defense in the industry on all slates, and the unit seemed to score a touchdown every week. While that kind of production was never sustainable, the Patriots average 9.0 DraftKings points per week this year, and this is a potentially very strong matchup. Drew Lock missed the last couple of games, and it’s unclear if he will return this week. If he’s out, the Patriots will likely face Brett Rypien, who struggled in his first NFL start against the Jets. He was picked off three times, and the Patriots present way more issues for a young quarterback than the Jets. I don’t usually like paying up for defenses, but avoiding the New England defense in cash games could get dicey if they face Rypien.
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Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley And NFL DFS Players Tearing Their Hair Out
Jones and Ridley both came into Monday night’s game against the Packers listed as questionable. Both were active, and Ridley did nothing in the first half while Jones hauled in four catches for 32 yards. That is not great, but he looked poised for a big second half since the Falcons were playing in a positive game script for the passing game. Jones didn’t come out for the second half with his hamstring bothering him, so surely Ridley shined in the second half, right? Not quite — Ridley finished with zero catches on four targets with Atlanta getting blown out.
One thing is clear after Monday’s game: The Falcons are not trustworthy. Even so, I am looking to get exposure to this passing attack against the Panthers. Carolina ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA, and this is a situation that the Falcons should take advantage of. If healthy, I’ll role the dice with Jones, and I assume almost nobody else will. If he’s out, I like Ridley to bounce back with a big game. Here’s the positive of what happened with the Falcons on Monday: They didn’t blow a fourth quarter lead. They realized that losing by two or more touchdowns solves the blowing-leads issue.
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