The NFL season is here, and there are NFL DFS picks and NFL DFS Week 6 DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo contests to get right into. Greg Ehrenberg breaks down some of the key news in his Slant and Go article.
The Slant and Go: NFL DFS Thoughts for DraftKings + FanDuel
Add Dalvin Cook To The List Of Injured Running Backs
After leaving Sunday night’s loss against the Seahawks, Cook isn’t expected to play this week. In previous seasons, this would set up Alexander Mattison as a no-brainer for the top NFL DFS value play. However, FanDuel and DraftKings are making sure this sort of obvious value plays don’t exist anymore. In fact, they both priced up Mattison right around where Cook is usually priced. There is a clear shift in how backup running backs are valued these days. After Mattison rumbled for over 100 yards after Cook went down on Sunday, the pricing algorithm doesn’t see much of a difference between Cook and his backup. The price tag on Mattison is rough at first glance, but I will still get exposure to him going up against the Falcons, who rank 28th in Defensive DVOA.
Mike Davis Continues To Fill Christian McCaffrey‘s Shoes
We continue to see backups play massive roles in NFL DFS. Davis is priced up, but the increase in salary isn’t enough. He’s scored over 20 DraftKings points in all three of his starts, and he’s amassed 33 targets in the last four games. Due to Davis’ combination of red zone work and volume in the passing game, his ceiling and floor are too much for me to pass up. I think it’s a mistake that DraftKings doesn’t have him priced as the most expensive player on this slate when considering his PPR upside. The pass catching makes Davis a bit of a stronger play on FanDuel than DraftKings, although, at first glance, he’s my favorite option to pay up for on both sites.
Related NFL DFS Content
- Matt Savoca's Data Deep Dive for Week 6: Opportunity, Efficiency and Target Share
- The Slant and Go for Week 6: RB Injuries PILING UP
Cam Newton Could Potentially Play Even With Positive COVID Test
According to Bill Belichick, Newton could play this week even if he continues to test positive. Newton is asymptomatic, and the NFL rules currently allow for a player to return under certain circumstances even with a positive test. Since 10 days have passed since his first test, Newton is allowed to play this weekend as long as he doesn’t exhibit any symptoms this week. Based on comments by Belichick early this week, it looks like he is planning on starting Newton. If something changes, Jarrett Stidham is a decent value option at quarterback.
Is Brandin Cooks For Real After The Texans’ Coaching Change?
I think so. Cooks didn’t looked washed when Bill O’Brien was the coach. The issue was that he never got targeted in the passing game. Now that there is a change in who is running the team, we saw Cooks more involved on Sunday. Cooks was targeted 12 times against the Jaguars and easily put up his best game of the season. Entering the game, Cooks had 10 receptions all year, and he picked up eight in that one game. There is a material change that makes me think that Cooks will continue to produce going forward, and he remains cheap everywhere.
The Falcons’ Passing Game Remains An NFL DFS Headache
None of us thought Olamide Zaccheaus would end up a chalk play this year. In an odd 2020 season, we got something we didn’t ask for. In hindsight, it probably isn’t a shock that a guy who has a name none of new how to pronounce a week ago busted as a popular option. With Julio Jones out, Zaccheaus saw increased snaps, but caught just one of four targets. Jones is questionable, and I actually think we can look to Zaccheaus again if Jones can’t play. He remains cheap and should see less ownership after Sunday’s flop.
The safest play without Jones is Calvin Ridley, who oddly went under-owned in Week 5. This was likely a response to him catching zero passes in Week 4. I am confident that game was a fluke, and I don’t read into it much. Ridley rebounded with eight catches for 136 yards. Oddly, he has over 100 yards in every game this season expect for one. This should serve as a lesson to look past a recent dud from a player you rostered because there was likely a good reason you were on them the week before.
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