NFL DFS Divisional Round DFS has finally arrived, and it’s time to talk strategy. Stacking a quarterback with one of more of his pass catchers provides a solid way to add upside to a daily fantasy football lineup. Part of the selection process for these picks comes from analyzing Awesemo’s top stacks tool for the Divisional Round for NFL DFS on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Here are a few top stacks among the NFL DFS picks worth considering this weekend.
NFL DFS Top Stacks: Divisional Round
Top Stack: Kansas City Chiefs
After finishing the regular season 14-2, the Chiefs enter the Divisional Round as 10-point favorites over the Browns. With an enormous 33.75-point implied team total, Kansas City deservedly sits atop the Awesemo Top Stacks tool heading into the Divisional Round. After scoring 29.6 points per game and ranking second in overall yards per play, Kansas City provides a 32.7% chance of finishing as the top stack this weekend.
At the quarterback position, Patrick Mahomes paces the slate in raw projection as well as ownership. However, Mahomes is so talented that it can be tough to win without him. On the year Mahomes completed 66.3% of his passes for an elite 8.1 yards per attempt. From a fantasy perspective, Mahomes eclipsed 300 yards passing in nine of 16 games while throwing multiple touchdowns in all but two contests. Among the remaining teams, Cleveland is tied for the worst yards per attempt allowed to opposing signal-callers. With the game total and matchup working in his favor, Mahomes is the top quarterback option for the Divisional Round DFS slate.
As for stacking options, Mahomes possesses two of the NFL’s top receiving weapons in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Hill and Kelce each hold a 23.2% and 25.3% target share in Kansas City’s offense. Hill finished the year with 87 catches for 1,276 yards. Similarly, Kelce broke the tight end receiving record with 105 receptions and 1,416 yards. Behind Watkins and Kelce, Sammy Watkins typically functions as the WR3. However, injury has caused him to miss practice to open the week. If Watkins can’t go, expect Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman to play almost every snap. Both would enter the fold as cheap stacking options with Mahomes on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Awesemo Top Stack Projection: 32.7%
Awesemo QB Ownership Projection: 36.0%
Value: 25.1 (highest)
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Top Stack: Buffalo Bills
Entering the Divisional Round on an absolute heater, the Bills have scored at least 26 points in each of their last nine games. More impressive yet, Buffalo has exceeded 30 points in six of those contests. This week they find themselves favored by 2.5 points in a game totaled at 49.5 points against the Ravens. With the second-highest chance of finishing as the Divisional Round’s top stack, Buffalo looks like a strong leverage play.
Making immense improvements year over year, Josh Allen worked his way into the MVP race in 2020. Allen completed 69.2% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt this year. Both marks ranked top five in the NFL. Displaying similar upside to Mahomes, Allen also eclipsed 300 yards passing on nice occasions in 18 games played. Unlike Mahomes, Allen also creates with his legs. Allen has at least 420 yards rushing in all three of his seasons to date. More importantly, the Bills like to use Allen around the end zone, as he has at least eight rushing scores in each of his NFL seasons as well.
Another team with strong stacking options, 29.3% of Buffalo’s targets flow through Stefon Diggs. Diggs led the NFL in most major receiving categories this season and is actually cheaper than Hill and Davante Adams on this slate. Behind Diggs, John Brown air-balled the Wild Card slate, but he still ran a route on 95% of dropbacks. Cole Beasley also shook off his Week 17 injury to handle seven catches at 57 yards in the Wild Card round. Even Gabriel Davis caught four balls for 85 yards and offers contrarian appeal on the four-game DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Awesemo Top Stack Projection: 16.0%
Awesemo QB Ownership Projection: 25.3%
Value: 20.5 (second-highest)
Value Stack: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
For those looking at contrarian value stacks, Tampa Bay continues to fly under the radar despites scoring 30 points in four straight games. After racking up 31 points against a strong Washington Football Team last week, the Buccaneers now face the New Orleans Saints as 3-point underdogs in a game totaled at 52 points. Bringing far less ownership at a reduced price, Tampa Bay provides a contrarian approach to a potential GPP-winning score.
Tom Brady continues to defy time. Brady completed 65.7% of his passes this year for 7.6 yards per attempt. After a slow start to the season, he enters the Divisional Round with four straight 300-yard games with multiple touchdowns. In that span Brady also holds an impressive 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. More importantly, Brady has a discounted price and reduced ownership. For those playing large-field contests, Brady still offers GPP-winning upside at a reduced cost.
With everything on the line last week, Brady narrowed his target distribution to mainly Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. In the regular season, Evans and Godwin accounted for 18% and 18.9% of Tampa Bay’s targets. Last week Evans saw 10 targets to Godwin’s 12, setting them up as the preferred stacking options with Brady. Antonio Brown also played a decent role down the stretch for Tampa Bay. Despite his 19.9% target share, Brown only received three targets in the Wild Card round, making him more of a contrarian play. At the tight end position, Cameron Brate surprisingly out-targeted Rob Gronkowski 6-to-1 last week. Gronkowski now has just seven total targets combined in Tampa Bay’s last three games. Brate also ran 22 routes to Gronkowski’s 18, making them both GPP dart throws.
Awesemo Top Stack Projection: 7.7%
Awesemo QB Ownership Projection: 10.2%
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