The injury carousel rolls on here in Week 10 as the Panthers look likely to be without their star running back again. Christian McCaffrey’s absence will undoubtedly be the main story on this week’s slate, as it means Mike Davis will again be a focal point in DFS. Davis’ salary was pushed back down to min-price status on DraftKings this week (before we knew McCaffrey would be out). At just $4,000, he’ll undoubtedly his projected ownership will be astronomical and he will be the most-owned NFL DFS pick we’ve seen on the year.
This week also brings us a game that will invite a lot exposure to it as the Bills and Josh Allen visit Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Allen and Murray have been two of the best quarterbacks for fantasy purposes all season, and with a game total of 56.5, both quarterbacks and their prime receiving targets will be popular picks. Kenyan Drake is an injury to watch in that game, as he’s already returned to practice after a knee sprain suffered two weeks ago. If he sits, Chase Edmonds would be in a monster spot against a poor Bills run defense. There are lots of running backs to monitor this week with Chris Carson, Justin Jackson, David Johnson and David Montgomery (MNF) all questionable to doubtful right now.
Week 10 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks + Projected Ownership
QB: Josh Allen Grades: A, Values: A
There’s no doubt that most people’s eyes will be on Buffalo – Arizona for daily fantasy purposes this week. Both quarterbacks in this game have a ton of appeal, but Allen seems like he may have a better chance for a monster fantasy day. The Bills come in as -2.5 underdogs as of writing, and Allen’s game against Seattle marked the fifth time this year he’s thrown the ball 35 or more times in a game. In those three games, Allen has thrown for multiple touchdowns twice. Allen’s rushing upside isn’t as prolific as Murray’s, but the Bills’ propensity to allow yards to running backs could theoretically lead to Arizona taking a more run-heavy approach, which could steal away just a touch of Murray’s thunder.
Allen’s also $500 cheaper than his opponent on DraftKings and will be up against an Arizona defense that has allowed 30 or more rushing yards to the quarterback position in three of their last five games. While he’s ranked third in points projection (Murray is ranked first), Allen has the best value score of any quarterback on this slate and also possesses smaller ownership projections than Murray. With no real tight end or dominant pass-catching running back, stacking him is also easy, as Stefon Diggs and John Brown have both emerged as great deep threats and led Buffalo in targets last week.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 12.7%
RB: Aaron Jones Grades: B, Values: B
Aaron Jones looked great last Thursday night in the Packers’ dominant win over the 49ers. Coming off an ankle injury where many weren’t even sure if he’d play pre-game — let alone take 20 touches — Jones ripped off multiple big runs and helped open up space for Aaron Rodgers to tear apart the 49ers’ weak secondary. Green Bay enters this week’s game against the lowly Jaguars as -13.5 favorites, and with Jones now coming in with over a week of rest, we should prepare for some of those Rodgers touchdowns to flip back to Jones.
Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the running back position this year and seven touchdowns to the position over their last five games. The weather in Green Bay this week is also supposed to be suspect, with 20 mph winds and possible rain/snow showing up. It all lends itself to a game where Green Bay will seem more than happy to give their star running back a big workload and let their defense take care of a rookie quarterback on the other side. Jones rates out well enough with the fifth-highest points projection this week. With injury concerns elsewhere and no stud running backs (Dalvin Cook is on Monday Night Football) to pay up for, his price and ownership projections seem pretty palatable considering the matchup he’s been dealt.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 30.2%
WR: DeAndre Hopkins Grades: A, Values: B
Grabbing a couple main pieces from the Buffalo – Arizona game this week seems like a must given the implied team totals involved. Arizona comes into this slate with the third-highest such projection at 29.00 and will be facing a Buffalo team who could be without its best corner in Tre’Davious White. DeAndre Hopkins has ceded some targets over the last couple of games to Christian Kirk, but after getting just three targets in a loss last week to Miami, you have to figure some overcompensation might be in the cards here — especially if White is out.
Hopkins’ ceiling this year has proven to almost limitless, as he’s caught 10 or more passes three times already and has the highest catch rate among the top 10 most targeted wide receivers at 74%. Hopkins comes in strong with the fourth-highest points projection this week on Awesemo. And while his value score is bested by a couple of other big names, you could argue that this price ($7,700) on DraftKings for Hopkins is more than value given it’s the lowest we’ve seen on him since Week 2. In a great matchup, one poor week shouldn’t be dissuading you from going after Hopkins in Week 10.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 13.1%
TE: Noah Fant Grades: B, Values: B
Noah Fant left last game early with an ankle issue, but he returned to practice in full this Thursday and looks set to play against Vegas in Week 10. The Broncos lost rookie tight end Albert Okwuegbunam for the year last week, so Fant’s presence will be sorely needed, as the rookie had been seeing consistent targets every week. On tap for the Broncos this week are the Raiders, who haven’t been terrible against guarding against the tight end position but have also given up three touchdowns to tight ends over their last three games. Other big, athletic tight ends like Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce posted five-plus catches and a touchdown against this Raiders team, so Fant is definitely in a good spot here, matchup-wise. He could approach his season high in targets (10) with the Broncos’ other pass-catching tight end now out.
On Awesemo, other tight ends like Dallas Goedert and Hunter Henry have slightly better value scores, but Fant has the better points projection, which rates him out as the third-best tight end NFL DFS picks on the slate in that regard. With his salary still under $5,000 on DraftKings ($4,900) and ownership that’s unlikely to get out of control, he makes for a great GPP piece to build around in Week 10.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 8.4%
Contrarian DFS Stack: Chargers/Dolphins
Justin Herbert comes into this game with projected ownership that would put him around just 3% owned on the slate. It’s a curious downswing in sentiment for a player who has averaged 28.5 DraftKings points over his last five games. Part of the sentiment shift is undoubtedly due to the matchup with the Dolphins defense, who have now lifted Miami to four straight wins. However, this is also a team who allowed Murray to complete 80% of his passes, throw for three touchdowns and post a 150.5 passer rating last week. Keenan Allen should be available for less ownership than the past couple weeks too, and he will likely avoid the best corners for Miami (at least for parts of the game) given that he plays the majority of his snaps from the slot. If the Dolphins overcommit to stopping Allen, it could also be a spot for Hunter Henry to go off. It’s worth noting Miami showed some cracks in that area of the field in Week 9 after allowing two tight ends to score touchdowns last week.
On the other side, if Matt Breida can play this week (limited practices only so far), he’d be an interesting comeback play against a Chargers defense that has allowed five touchdowns to the running back position over their last three games. Los Angeles has also allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of their last five games. At $5,000 on DraftKings, DeVante Parker is certainly worth a look here after he showed better connection with Tua Tagovailoa in the duo’s second game together.
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