From the Slot: Week 12 NFL DFS DraftKings Picks Based on Awesemo’s Grades

The Week 12 Sunday slate has lots of fantasy potential with five games with over/under totals of 51 or greater. As of this writing, the largest total is an afternoon game with the Chiefs visiting the Buccaneers at over/under 56.0. This week also has a Steelers-Ravens game that may not get played. As of now, several players on the Ravens have been diagnosed with COVID-19, including Lamar Jackson. This could have a major impact on the NFL DFS picks we make and the overall NFL DFS ownership on the DraftKings main slate. If the game does get played, Baltimore will likely be playing second- and third-stringers at many positions, including quarterback, so a Steelers offensive romp could be in the card.

There are other injury concerns to monitor here too. Todd Gurley has already missed two practices this week and is questionable at the moment. Brian Hill is only $4,000 on DraftKings and would become a very strong play against a weak Raiders rush defense if Gurley sits. Julio Jones is also going to be a game-time decision for the Falcons. One other big name to watch leading up to lock will be Austin Ekeler, who was activated off of IR this week by the Chargers. The Bills – Chargers game will have a lot of fantasy eyes on it, and Ekeler would be a big boost to the Chargers offense if he plays

Week 12 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks + Ownership Rankings 

QB: Patrick Mahomes Grades: A, Values: A

The Buccaneers’ vaunted defense has started to show some cracks lately as they’ve regressed back into the pass funnel we liked to target in 2019. Tampa has allowed 13 passing touchdowns over their last five games and ceded an incredible 23 receptions and 275 yards to Rams wide receivers in Week 11. This spells huge problems when Mahomes is coming to town, especially when his own team’s defense has been causing him to throw the ball more and more lately.

Mahomes has thrown the ball 42 times or more in his last three starts and comes into this slate with the highest projected point total on Awesemo of any quarterback on the slate. This normally wouldn’t be a huge accomplishment for him, but this week he’s also projecting with quite low ownership, as it looks like the DFS crowd is still hesitant about starting quarterbacks against Tampa. Mahomes may not represent the best value at quarterback, but his upside combined with lower ownership projections makes him look like a great target to build around for GPPs in Week 12. Mahomes and Tyreek Hill could be a great alternative to the Chargers and Bills stacks, which should be popular in big GPPs this week.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 3.5%

RB: James Robinson Grades: B, Values: A

Robinson’s usage this year has been one of the more shocking and interesting developments of the season. Once seen as the fourth man on the depth chart for the Jaguars, he’s now moved into one of the most reliable bell-cow roles in the NFL. Robinson has now averaged 23.75 touches over his last three games and has played on well over 70% of the snaps in each of the last four games. From a price perspective, Robinson’s $6,300 salary on DraftKings means the Awesemo model absolutely loves him this week, as he has the highest value score by far at 3.20 (for context, the next best value is Myles Gaskin way down at 2.88) and the second-highest points projection at running back on the slate.

There is a little bit of a bust factor here with Mike Glennon playing quarterback and a Browns defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest rush yards per game in 2020. However, it’s worth noting that Cleveland is still without their best defender in Myles Garrett this week and that Robinson has maintained his big workload status, even though the Jaguars have now lost nine straight games. Ultimately, running back is a position more about opportunity than anything else, and with the Jaguars’ quarterback position so weak, you have to figure that giving Robinson another boatload of touches against Cleveland is still high on their list of priorities. He’s getting up there in ownership projections but offers great price-to-points value if you can differentiate at other positions. I like him as an NFL DFS pick this week.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 16.6%

WR: Calvin Ridley Grades: B, Values: B

The Falcons’ pass game is in a good spot this week against Las Vegas. The Raiders corners have been playing better of late, but their defense still gets little to no pressure on the quarterback. Unlike last week, where Matt Ryan was sacked an insane eight times by the Saints, the Raiders managed zero sacks against Kansas City and rank second to last in sacks per game on the year. Ridley is practicing in limited fashion (foot), but he did the same thing last week and still saw nine targets in the Falcons blowout loss. Julio Jones (hamstring) is a true game-time decision this week, and even if he does play, he’s unlikely to see his regular snap count.

Ridley comes into this game ranked fourth among wide receivers in air yards and could be in for a monster target share this week against a secondary that’s allowed six touchdowns to the position over their last five games. On Awesemo, we have Ridley ranked out with the fifth-highest points projection at his position, but he is still carrying a single-digit ownership projection that may not get much higher given all the big-name receivers in good spots this week. Ridley’s a nice pay-up target at receiver in Week 12 and a good way to get a piece of a potentially explosive Raiders – Falcons game.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 6.8%

TE: Austin Hooper Grades: C, Values: B

Tight End continues to be the weekly belly ache that refuses to go away. While we have a couple of bigger names to play on the main Sunday slate like Darren Waller and Travis Kelce, there’s some good value and potential leverage to be had with Hooper. He’s only seen seven targets since coming off the IR two games ago, but Hooper has averaged around 75% of the snaps played on offense in those two games and faces a Jaguars defense that has given up eight touchdowns to the position this year — and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends overall.

As mentioned above, there’s also potential leverage to be had in GPPs by taking Hooper as your exposure to the Cleveland offense over either Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt, who both are likely to garner at least some ownership. Hooper rates out as a good play on his own merit, though, as he has the highest points projection of any one under $4,000 on DraftKings (and the fifth highest of any tight end playing on Sunday) and is also projecting with the third-highest value score. He’s a solid value at a position without many.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 8.6%

Contrarian DFS Stack: Arizona Passing Game

The Patriots defense has started to show some signs of operating as a true funnel unit, with a nearly non-existent pass rush and a secondary that has now allowed seven touchdowns to opposing wide receivers over their last three games. New England’s defensive line ranks fourth to last in sacks per game, and their secondary has allowed an average of 285 passing yards and 2.33 touchdowns over the last three games. Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins come into this game trending with lower ownership projections than we’ve seen on them for quite some time, and part of that may be from Murray suffering a small AC joint injury in last Thursday’s game against Seattle. There’s a little risk involved here, but Murray has had extra time to heal this week and is going up against a defense that hasn’t been good at taking down opposing quarterbacks anyways.

Hopkins’ matchup with Stephon Gilmore sounds bad, but Gilmore’s play has been part of the reason why the Patriots are ceding touchdowns to wide receivers at an alarming rate. On the flipside, this could be a great spot to jump back on Jakobi Meyers after he was the chalk bust of the week for Week 11. Meyers has seen 8.5 targets per game since Week 8 and gets a Cardinals defense that has allowed the fourth-most receptions on the year, making him a great buy-low candidate.


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