Week 15 NFL DFS + Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown Column With Matt Savoca

Matt Savoca’s Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Column returns for Week 15 of the NFL DFS season. In it, he goes through every single game on the NFL DFS main slate on Sundays for your season-long fantasy football lineups on Yahoo, ESPN and CBS and your NFL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are 11 games on tap for Week 15, so let’s dive into the action.

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Week 15 NFL DFS Matchups Breakdown

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Early Games

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Afternoon Games

New York Jets at Los Angeles Rams

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints


Jacksonville Jaguars (16.5) at Baltimore Ravens (29.5)

All Graphs Reflect Last Five Weeks of Data, Click Graphs to Enlarge

Team Passing and Pace

First, let’s take a look at the possibility of this game turning into a shootout, as teams that play faster and pass more than average tend to score more fantasy points. When both teams play aggressively, it often creates a game environment perfect for fantasy scoring. Games have a higher probability of going over their Vegas total as well. Ideally, we’re seeking matchups where both teams are in the upper-right quadrant of the chart below (see the chart’s caption for more details).

The X-axis is Early-Down Air Yards divided by team game-script-adjusted plays per second (using Awesemo’s Game-Adjusted Pace from the Advanced Stats Page). The Y-axis is True Neutral Early-Down Pass Rate, a key indicator of a team’s desire to have a pass-oriented game script. The matchup-specific teams’ logos are displayed amongst all other teams in order to contextualize team pace and passing versus league averages (the dotted lines on the chart).

With both teams pot-committed to the running game, don’t expect either team to run a large number of plays in total. But if Monday Night Football’s Week 14 classic between the Browns and Ravens is any indicator, that run-oriented nature doesn’t necessarily mean there won’t be points scored in this matchup, as Baltimore is implied for nearly 30 points per the Vegas line. The Ravens’ skill players remain ideally suited to their rush-oriented, clock-control style of play, while the Jaguars are basically just leaning on James Robinson to get them through each afternoon. At the very least, Jacksonville calls an above-average number of passing plays in neutral game scripts, which gives us a small amount of upside for the passing attacks.

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Recent Quarterback Performance

Next, let’s examine the starting quarterbacks’ recent play. Sustained drives in the NFL rely on efficiency at the quarterback position, so I’ve identified my three favorite performance indicators for assessing quarterback performance. The three bar charts below (see the graph’s caption for more detail) represent a quarterback’s per-drive efficiency (left bar-chart), per-play efficiency including rushes/scrambles (center) and per-pass efficiency (right). Higher rankings from both players indicate a higher likelihood of efficient play, thus a higher probability of fantasy points.

Note: this chart includes data from weeks 1-14, to include Garner Minshew’s previous stint as the starter this season.

WEek 15 NFL DFS Picks DraftKings FanDuel
The three columns represent my three primary performance indicators for quarterbacks. Furthest left (tDSR) is True Drive Success Rate, a drive-based efficiency metric that measures a quarterback’s ability to turn drives into touchdowns, regressed based on sample size. The middle column, Expected Points Added (EPA), is a measure of per-play efficiency and includes scrambles and designed runs. Finally, on the right is per-pass efficiency, Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) based on the publicly available completion percentage model included in the NFLFastR package.

For Lamar Jackson the passer, chart confirms what football viewers across America already know, Jackson has been somewhat inaccurate. But that hasn’t stopped Jackson from leading a highly competent offense, particularly when factoring in the success of the team’s multifaceted rushing game relative to the rest of the league. Jackson still ranks well above league average in expected points added per play and continues to turn drives into touchdowns at high rates. Yes, his numbers are down from a year ago, but he’s still an elite (and completely) unique option behind center, regardless of the amount of wideouts who won’t be active for this matchup. For the Jaguars, Gardner Minshew, assuming his thumb is healed, absolutely gives the team the best chance to win. Minshew’s efficiency metrics trounce those of his teammates.

Never Miss An Active/Inactive Ever Again Don't get burned by a player being ruled out last minute, use our New NFL Depth Charts page to see starting lineups and inactive players for every team.  

NFL DFS Player Pool Picker: Upside Analysis

Now, let’s examine the primary skill players from each offense. Unless participating in a large-field tournament, these are the players you should be focusing on in your daily fantasy football lineups. For each player, I’ve made it easy to compare their per-game fantasy (in column 3) to their DraftKings main slate salary ranking (in column 2). Column 4 ranks the player using my favorite position-specific volume metric: Expected fantasy points, which is curated by PFF.  The Defense vs. Position column is an extremely helpful position-specific and player-group specific (for example, the metric delineates between primary wide receiver vs. secondary wide receivers) metric that helps determine if an offensive player is likely to be in a position to exceed their expected fantasy points. Higher numbers in the Defense vs. Position column indicate easier matchups for the offense, while numbers closer to one indicate a stout defense against that specific position-group.

The final column, Expected Projection, combines a player’s expected fantasy points with their weekly matchup into one helpful value metric. Apart from the Awesemo projections (which should still carry the most weight in determining player value), Expected Projection is one of my favorite metrics to help me narrow down my favorite plays of the week. The rankings are always specific to the slate, meaning if a player or team is ranked No. 1 at a specific metric, they may not necessarily be ranked No. 1 in the NFL, but they are for this specific slate.

Jacksonville Jaguars Core Offenses

Team Player Positional Salary Rank FPTs/Gm Rank Expected FPTs/Gm Rank Defense vs. Position Expected Projection
JAX Gardner Minshew, QB #20 #16 #19 #10 16.5 Fpts (QB13)
JAX James Robinson, RB #6 #6 #6 #19 17 Fpts (RB8)
JAX D.J. Chark, WR #26 #53 #44 #21 9.5 Fpts (WR31)
JAX Laviska Shenault, WR #43 #35 #63 #16 8.5 Fpts (WR38)

None of the core four from the Jaguars look like terrible plays, especially if you believe the Jacksonville offense will be forced to keep pace with a Ravens team out to prove they belong in the playoffs. Only D.J. Chark‘s salary looks slightly high compared to his recent usage, but an expected projection of nearly 10 DraftKings points is nothing to scoff at. Shenault appears to be a better value, at least at first glance.

Baltimore Ravens Core Offenses

Team Player Positional Salary Rank FPTs/Gm Rank Expected FPTs/Gm Rank Defense vs. Position Expected Projection
BAL Lamar Jackson, QB #2 #4 #7 #26 25 (QB2)
BAL Mark Andrews, TE #2 #7 #5 #5 11.5 Fpts (TE5)
BAL J.K. Dobbins, RB #14 #18 #30 #22 13 Fpts (RB14)
BAL Willie Snead, WR #36 #24 #34 #30 11.5 Fpts (WR23)
BAL Gus Edwards, RB #37 #13 #32 #22 11.5 Fpts (RB16)

Nobody needs to tell fantasy gamers that Jackson is an absolute smash play this weekend, but the same can’t be said for his skill position players. Only Willie Snead and J.K. Dobbins stick out as value plays in this table. Mark Andrews has a surprisingly difficult matchup, with the Jaguars quietly ranking fifth best in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends, making it tough to justify him as the second-highest salary at his position.

Backfield Values: Running Back Opportunities

Nailing the running back position in your fantasy football lineups is vitally important. There are many metrics that help fantasy gamers determine which running backs earn higher-value touches than their peers, but my favorite is Quality Opportunities per game. It only counts running back looks that come via the receiving game (as receptions are much more valuable on a per-play basis than rushes) or via goal line rushes (inside the opponent’s 10-yard line) since there isn’t anything more valuable than a touchdown.

 

This chart measures Quality Opportunities per Game (targets or goal line carries) and its variant, Quality Opportunity Share, which are both key performance indicators for running backs. This metric helps filter so-called “empty touches” from a running back’s workload and highlights the opportunities that are most likely to be successful for fantasy football. It includes injured players in order to help contextualize players who might be receiving a smaller or larger workload based on personnel shifts.

The Dobbins takeover is happening. Over the last five weeks, Dobbins finally leads all Ravens running backs in quality opportunities per game. But Gus Edwards, who continues to operate as the primary goal line back (for a team that finds itself at the goal line quite a bit), isn’t going away any time soon. Mark Ingram, however, has faded into relative obscurity in recent weeks and shouldn’t be considered in any fantasy football format. James Robinson continues to be one of the highest-volume backs in the NFL. As the every-down back for the Jaguars, he’s always in a bad matchup and remains a good play anyway. The Jaguars are mixing in other backs a little more than earlier in the season, but Robinson remains one of the highest-floor running back plays on the slate.

NFL DFS Receiving Values: Skill Position Opportunity Ranges

The wide receiver and tight end positions are two of the higher-variance positions in all of daily fantasy football, so it’s important to consider both floor and ceiling when predicting a player’s usage. Players with unexpectedly high opportunity in the passing game often have the best chances to outperform their projections, so I created a chart that measures a player’s opportunity range of outcomes (see the caption of the graph for more details on how this is calculated.). The horizontal bars represent a player’s expected opportunity range, while the center dot represents their average opportunity.

This chart measures the mathematical uncertainty in each player’s true weighted opportunity metric (the metric is explained in the caption of the Game Opportunity Chart above), providing an insight into a player’s range of outcomes related to receiving opportunity. For each player, the team-color dot is the “true” metric, while the red dot indicates the “observed” stat. The bars represent a player’s 95% credible interval, which we can use to measure the uncertainty (both positive and negative) related to their expected workload through the air.

It shouldn’t be any surprise that Jackson’s big two look like the most exciting receiving options in this matchup (they have the salary this weekend to prove it), but don’t rule out big games from Chark, Keelan Cole or Tyler Eifert, who’s seen five or more targets in six of his last seven games. The Jaguars continue to have one of the leastconsolidated passing attacks in the NFL, making it extremely difficult to guess who “pops” from week to week, so use them at your own risk.

Auxiliary Offensive Players for Large-Field NFL DFS Contests

In daily fantasy football, depending on the size and type of contest you’re playing, it’s often advantageous to expand your player pool to less-utilized offensive players. In this section, we examine every part-time player’s usage based on playing time, opportunity and (again) defensive matchup. For each player, I create an Opportunity Score, which scales a position-specific opportunity metric between zero (least valuable) and 100 (most valuable). Scores above 50 tend to indicate starter-level opportunity, while scores over 80 indicate star-level usage. Finally, I categorize the players as an NFL DFS value, a mass multi-entry option (MME-only) or a player to avoid altogether.

Jacksonville Jaguars NFL DFS Tournament Picks

Team Player Snap Share Opportunity Score Defense vs. Position Outlook: Value, MME-only, Look Elsewhere
JAX Keelan Cole, WR 79% 54 #5 MME-Only
JAX Tyler Eifert, TE 60% 75 #15 Value
JAX Collin Johnson, WR 32% 42 #5 MME-Only
JAX James O’Shaughnessy, TE 46% 64 #15 MME-Only
JAX Dare Ogunbowale, RB 16% 14 #19 Look Elsewhere
JAX Devine Ozigbo, RB 4% 54 #19 Look Elsewhere
JAX Chris Conley, WR 44% 47 #5 Look Elsewhere

Cole and Eifert (again) seem like solid tournament options, but Eifert has the easier matchup of the two. The Ravens’ secondary is banged up coming into the weekend, making their defensive metrics a bit tougher to trust. PFF still ranks Baltimore 11th in team coverage grade.

Baltimore Ravens Tournament-Only NFL DFS Tournament Picks

Team Player Snap Share Opportunity Score Defense vs. Position Outlook: Value, MME-only, Look Elsewhere
BAL Mark Ingram, RB 14% 37 #22 Look Elsewhere
BAL Devin Duvernay, WR 46% 36 #10 Look Elsewhere
BAL Miles Boykin, WR 45% 36 #10 Look Elsewhere

With the Ravens’ four-headed monster all considered part of the core offense (see above), the three Baltimore skill players listed here aren’t what fantasy gamers are looking for, even in the largest-field tournaments. If you’re playing a pass catcher, it must be one of Andrews, Snead or Marquise Brown.

Final Thoughts

As is often the case, Lamar Jackson is completely viable on his own in any fantasy football format, but with a lack of receiving options on the outside, the stack with Andrews will be popular, but for good reason. A lineup build centered around Jackson, Andrews and Robinson could be extremely viable as well. Edwards and Dobbins make interesting tournament options, with neither expected for even 5% ownership on the main slate.

Prediction: Ravens 27, Jaguars 21


Looking for more NFL DFS picks and daily fantasy football matchups content? We have loads of articles, data and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.

Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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