NFL DFS Picks: Week 4 NFL DrafKings Picks

As we head into Week 4 of the NFL DFS season, seven different undefeated teams remain in the league, while six are still looking for that first elusive win. Last week, receivers were really the main theme for fantasy purposes as players like Tyler Lockett and Allen Robinson had monster games. A lot of the chalk running back NFL DFS picks ended up busting, while lower-owned names like Mike Davis and Austin Ekeler (featured here last week) went off.

From an injury perspective, the wide receiver position will again be the story of Week 4. Big names like Chris Godwin (hamstring) have already been ruled doubtful, while the trio of Michael Thomas, Davante Adams and Julio Jones (the three top receivers taken in many season-long drafts) are all questionable to return to action after all three sat in Week 3. If you’re need in of value options, Awesemo offers a value rating in its Data Central for NFL DFS, available to subscribers.

NFL DFS PICKS Week 4 | DraftKings + FanDuel

QB Deshaun Watson ($6,600): Grades: A, Values: A

Watson has been a bit of a disappointment to start the 2020 season. The Texans quarterback has thrown interceptions in all three games and only passed for multiple touchdowns once in three starts now. While the lack of explosive fantasy production is a turnoff, it’s worth noting that Watson posted his best passer rating of the season last week (110.7) against the vaunted Steelers defense. While it didn’t lead to a win, that confidence-building start should help in Week 4 in a massive get-right spot against a Vikings teams that has injury and performance issues across its defense.

The Vikings have allowed the third-most passing yards per game through three weeks and have the second-worst adjusted sack rate in the league so far, recording just three sacks in 2020. Giving Watson and the 4.32 speed of Will Fuller more time against a bad secondary here spells major upside. In the Awesemo projections, Watson ranks out as the third-best value this week and has by far the highest point projection of any quarterback under $7,000 on DraftKings. Everything points to him finally breaking loose against Minnesota.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 11.2%

Editor’s note:

Though we’ve got Watson as a great NFL DFS play this week, Awesemo has his passing yardage prop projected for 20 yards less than what the Vegas books are offering. Head over to OddsShopper to find the best prices for the bets you want to make by clicking on the image below.

RB Kenyan Drake ($6,000): Grades: B, Values: B

Drake has only seen three targets in the pass game over the last two weeks and failed to find the end zone since a late rushing touchdown in Week 1. The lack of production looks like it is also causing his ownership percentage to slide, finally, after being well over 20% owned in large-field GPPs the last couple of weeks. While the lack of red zone conversions has been frustrating, now seems like the wrong time to get off the Drake bandwagon. Like last week’s feature running back here, Ekeler, Drake has a meeting with the Carolina Panthers this week, a team which has now ceded seven rushing touchdowns and the most fantasy points to opposing running backs on the year.

While we shouldn’t expect Drake to match Ekeler’s 11 receptions from last week, we can expect him to approach or exceed his season high of 20 carries. Kyler Murray threw three interceptions in a loss against Detroit last week, and the natural response against a poor rush defense would likely be to dial up more running plays for Drake early. Carolina has the 10th-worst red zone defense on the year and has allowed 4.9 yards per carry, so if the volume picks up even a bit, another big fantasy day should transpire. Drake’s reduced ownership is a big part of targeting him in GPPs, but he rates out with the fifth-best value score of any back this week and has the second-best point projection of any back under $6,500 on DraftKings.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 16.4%

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WR Tyler Lockett ($7,000): Grades: B, Values: B

Lockett has now seen 29 targets through three weeks of play. The 27-year-old has developed into a legit No. 1 receiver over the past year and a half and is benefitting from Seattle’s transition to a more passing-based offense in 2020. The Seahawks are passing 5% more this season compared to last, and the switch has sent Lockett into orbit for fantasy purposes. His 78% conversion rate is second among all receivers with more than 3 -targets thus far, and he’s now seen five red zone targets on the year, four of which have resulted in touchdowns.

The matchup against Miami looks like another spectacular one, as their big free agent signee, cornerback Byron Jones, again looks doubtful to play, leaving the lowly-graded Jamal Perry to man the slot. With Seattle’s own secondary having issues, and the Seahawks sporting a 30.50 team total here (highest on the main slate), this feels like a great matchup to deploy Lockett in lineups again. He has the fourth-best points projection this week on Awesemo and is projected right now to stay at or even under last week’s ownership levels.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 16.9%

TE Mark Andrews ($6,000): Grades: B, Values: C

Andrews has had a tough start to the season, producing just nine receptions on the year despite seeing 17 targets. While you’d like to see a bit better usage and a much better conversion rate, it’s still very encouraging that the Ravens tight end is playing on a higher percentage of the offensive plays than he was last season — the 79% of the snaps played last week was the highest one-game mark of his career. Andrews still rates out well in the Awesemo model too, with the third-best point projection on the main Sunday slate. This suggests we shouldn’t be avoiding the tight end altogether and should probably even look to target him soon when the matchup is right.

This week the matchup couldn’t be much better, as Washington sports a poor linebacker crew that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points against to the tight end position this year. The Ravens beleaguered O-Line should also get a reprieve here, as Washington is sporting some injuries up front as well. Look for Andrews and Lamar Jackson to connect, making Andrews a potentially great GPP target at a ownership projection hovering under 5% at last update.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 1.7%

Contrarian DFS Stack: Miami Dolphins

The Seattle-Miami game has a 54.5 over/under attached to it, and the circumstances suggest that the Dolphins could make a game of it. Seattle’s defense has allowed an obscene 430 yards passing per game and could be without both safety Jamal Adams and cornerback Quinton Dunbar in the secondary. DeVante Parker looked healthy in Week 3 after dealing with some nagging leg issues, and both he and Ryan Fitzpatrick grade out as top-five value plays at their position this week on Awesemo. I mentioned Lockett above, and with Fitzpatrick’s and Parker’s ownership not expected to get too crazy, adding Lockett to make it a three-man game stack makes a ton of sense. Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki and even Carlos Hyde (if Chris Carson sits) all make for potential low-owned additions here too if you want to really attack this game.