NFL DFS Picks: Week 5 NFL DrafKings Picks

The NFL survived some serious COVID-19 scares in Week 4, only seeing one of its games (Titans – Steelers) cancelled. Those two teams will now meet later in the year and are both coming into Week 5 off byes. With Tennessee still getting some positive COVID-19 diagnoses trickling, their game against the Bills may be in jeopardy. Right now those players are tracking with supremely low ownership in the Awesemo ownership projections, which are a valuable tool on a week like this. If you’re need in of ownership projections, Awesemo constantly updates these in its Data Central for NFL DFS, available to subscribers.

On the injury front, Week 5 still has a ton of important spots to watch. Michael Thomas will be looking to return (again) after a multi-week absence, while Julio Jones (hamstring) couldn’t finish last week’s game against Green Bay and seems unlikely to play in Week 5. The 49ers are getting healthier, but there is also no guarantee Jimmy Garoppolo or Raheem Mostert play against Miami this week, and both should be hit with questionable tags or ruled out before Saturday. From a personnel standpoint, the big news of the week has come out of Washington and New England this far. Washington is benching Dwayne Haskins in favor of Kyle Allen, while New England cornerback Stephon Gilmore has tested positive for COVID-19. More positive tests on the Patriots or Chiefs (their opponent last week) could roll in and put those teams (and their opponents) in jeopardy for Week5.

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NFL DFS PICKS Week 5

QB Teddy Bridgewater ($5,900): Grades: A, Values: A

Bridgewater skied up the ratings in the Awesemo projections this week, and his matchup with the Falcons likely has a lot to do with it. Atlanta has given up the most points per game to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, and they lead that category by a considerable margin (over 5 points). Atlanta has ceded over 353 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and have a pass rush that ranks seventh worst in adjusted sack rate.

Bridgewater only ranks out as the ninth-best quarterback in terms of pure points projections, but he’s higher than any other quarterback salaried under $5,000 on DraftKings in that regard, in front of nine of the 11 quarterbacks in the $6,000 range on DraftKings. Sometimes it is OK to pay up for points, but Bridgewater rates out as a pretty elite value here with the second-best overall value rating on the slate at quarterback in Awesemo’s Week 5 NFL projections. Plus, he is less than two points away from a top-five ranking. He’s a great pay-down target at a position where paying up has been a near must the first few weeks.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 8.2%

RB Josh Jacobs ($6,300): Grades: B, Values: A

Jacobs heads into a matchup with Kansas City having gone scoreless since a three-touchdown breakout in Week 1. The second-year back hasn’t been a complete bust since then, as he’s been saved by some consistent receiving work, and has now averaged just over 4 targets per game in 2020. While Kansas City has looked formidable on the defensive side this year, their rush defense still rates out as a great matchup for opposing running backs. The Chiefs have allowed over 150 yards to opposing running backs in two of their last three games now and have the second-worst yards per carry of any defense in the league at 5.3.

Jacobs has had had success against KC in his two previous matchups with them as well, going for 203 rush yards against them on 29 total caries (7.0 yards per carry) in 2019. With his price still somewhat suppressed due to his lack of recent scores, he’s projecting as a popular play in big GPPs, but the matchup and his steady volume make him a great upside target here nonetheless. He rates out with the sixth-best points projection and second-best value score on the site this week.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 27.5%

WR DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900): Grades: A, Values: B

Hopkins ranks third in overall targets so far through four weeks of play and leads the league in receptions with 39. His 84% conversion rate with Kyler Murray speaks to the chemistry he has with his quarterback, but also just his own overall ability to catch every and anything that is thrown his way. Hopkins played last week despite an ankle that wasn’t 100%, but the good news here is that he didn’t seem to aggravate it in game, so he should be closer to 100% in Week 5.

He’s coming off his worst week of the season against the Panthers where he “only” came down with seven receptions. and that’s seemingly driven his ownership projections for Week 5 into a much lower spot than we’ve seen previously. The matchup with the Jets may not scream shootout, but Arizona has a 27-point total here, and New York was beaten for multiple big plays last week. Hopkins has the second-highest points projection of any receiver on the main Sunday slate, a sub-$8,000 salary again on DraftKings and is finely available at reasonable ownership levels. He projects as a solid DFS target once again.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 10.8%

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TE Evan Engram ($4,600): Grades: B, Values: A

Engram has had a slow/terrible start to his 2020 campaign. Big things were once again expected of the hybrid tight end who profiles more as a wide receiver and has flashed tantalizing elite fantasy potential in his three years in the league. So far in 2020, however, the 26-year-old hasn’t managed to find the end zone through four games and has only hit over 35 receiving yards once. The good news here though is two-fold. First, he plays the Cowboys. Dallas has given up a ton of points/yards as a team and allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points to the tight end position through four games.

The second plus is that, despite the lack of big games or touchdowns, Engram leads the Giants in targets. New York is clearly trying to get Engram the ball, but literally nothing has been working for them in the pass game as they come in averaging 201 yards through the air through four weeks, second worst in the league. Engram has torched the Cowboys a couple times already in his career, landing two touchdowns and 19 receptions in just his last two games versus them alone. He ranks out with the fifth-best points projection this week at tight end and the best overall value score at the position in the Awesemo model. A big breakout is projected for him this week.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 15.6%

Contrarian DFS Stack: Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers take on an Eagles defense who has allowed the 12th-worst passer rating to opposing quarterbacks this year and over 300 yards passing in each of their last two games. As we saw late last week when George Kittle eviscerated Philladelphia for 15 catches and 183 yards, this is still a defense who can get beat through the air by strong after-the-catch receivers and tight ends, of which the Steelers have a boatload. Any one of Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Eric Ebron and even Chase Claypool could come to life here and there should be ample opportunities on offense for Pittsburgh given the Eagles’ own inefficiencies on that side of the ball. Look for the Steelers defense to give Ben Roethlisberger great field position throughout this game — a quarterback who is no stranger to winning Milly Makers with five-touchdown days. The main cogs of the now fully healthy Steelers pass game are all projecting at low, low ownership here in a spot to potentially put up a massive game for DFS.

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