Week 5 Sunday Night Football features the Seattle Seahawks hosting then Minnesota Vikings. The Seahawks are favored by seven points and the game has a 57-point total. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.
NFL DFS Picks: Sunday Night Football NFL DFS | Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings
Showdown Captain
Who Thrives in Shootouts?
In the past year of winning lineups, there have been 21 games that featured at least 50 points. It’s still a small sample, but there are some data points worth looking at. All 21 lineups featured at least one quarterback. There were two quarterbacks in 42.8% of winning lineups. Furthermore, quarterbacks were the winning Captain in 28.7% of lineups, nearly double the rate that they appear at Captain in games with fewer than 50 points. This puts Russell Wilson in play at Captain despite his $19,500 price. He’s thrown a touchdown to eight different Seahawks and has topped 20 rushing yards in three games.
Running back is the other position that gets a boost in shootouts. They go from a 30.8% winning Captain rate in sub-50 games to a 57.1% clip in games with more than 50 points. This likely comes down to two factors.
- Running backs who operate at the goal line can easily punch in multiple scores in a game with eight touchdowns.
- Those scores are not shared with any other players.
This means that they have a high upside that isn’t tethered to a quarterback or receiver. Dalvin Cook is fourth in the NFL with 75 carries and top 10 in red zone touches (15). He also has four totes at the goal line, No. 7 among backs. At, $15,300, he’s over $4,000 cheaper than Wilson.
Chris Carson is an affordable $11,700, but he’s seen only two fewer red zone carries as Cook. He has the same number of carries inside the 5-yard line. Carson even has more targets (16) than Cook (11) does through four weeks.
Tyler Lockett
Lockett doesn’t fit the mold of winning Captains in shootouts, but his $12,900 price is criminal. He’s $2,100 cheaper than D.K. Metcalf even though he’s seen five more targets and has brought down 10 more passes. There are four players on Seattle with more red zone targets than Metcalf, who has just one look inside the 20-yard line. Lockett has four. Both are solid Flex plays, but Lockett gets the edge at Captain.
Justin Jefferson vs. Adam Thielen
The Vikings are one of six teams who are running the ball more often than they are passing. They are the only team of the six with a losing record, and four of the six are 3-1. Despite losing in all but one game, the Vikings have been committed to the run. That means Jefferson and Thielen are fighting for pieces of a small pie. Jefferson broke out with 175 yards in Week 3. In that week and the next, he’s played on five fewer snaps than Thielen and seen three fewer targets. Shockingly, Thielen has a 16.5 average depth of target, which is slightly higher than Jefferson’s aDOT. Thielen could see reduced ownership because of Jefferson but is undoubtedly the better play.
Tight Ends
No Vikings tight end has topped three targets in a game. Irv Smith hasn’t caught a pass since Week 2. Kyle Rudolph has peaked at two catches. Neither projects well this week. Greg Olsen, on the other hand, is an incredible play at his $5,000 price tag. He’s seen more red zone targets than any other Seattle player is third in receiving snaps at 111.
Kirk Cousins
If you can afford to get Cousins in your lineups you should do it but he doesn’t take precedents over Wilson. Cousins hasn’t attempted 30 passes in a game yet and doesn’t offer as much as Wilson as a runner. Rostering both passers is preferable in theory, but the price constraints make him a middling play.
Seattle Defense and Kickers
Vikings defense versus a cooking Wilson sounds like a miserable proposal. Seattle versus a run-first Minnesota offense for the cost of just $3,600 is more enticing. The Seattle defense has been shredded on a weekly basis but their price alone could push them into the optimal lineup. If Minnesota commits to the run to their own detriment, a handful of points for Seahawks D/ST could get the job done.
Jason Myers is only $200 more than Dan Bailey. His team is projected to score 7 extra points. The only reason to pivot to Bailey is for ownership purposes.
Lower-Owned NFL Picks
Backup Runners
Carlos Hyde may not play ,but he’s worth considering if active. He’s averaging 6.3 touches per game and did steal a goal line touchdown from Carson in Week 1.
Update: Hyde has been ruled out. Travis Homer is a great play at his $1,200 tag.Â
Alexander Mattison has siphoned off 7.3 touches per game from Cook. He’s playing on a quarter of Minnesota’s snaps. Both Mattison and Hyde are under $3,000. If the over hits, both players could get extra reps simply based on the total number of snaps featured in this game.
Seahawks Receivers
Freddie Swain and David Moore are both in play. Moore is the No. 3 receiver in Seattle by receiving snaps but only has a five-snap lead over Swain. He also has just a four-target lead over Swain. Both are viable, but Swain will likely go overlooked relative to Moore despite the volume being similar.
Will Dissly
Dissly has caught all seven of his targets and is seventh on Seattle in receiving snaps. He’s questionable with an Achilles’ injury but is expected to play. If he doesn’t, Jacob Hollister would step into a considerable No. 2 tight end role.
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