The Chiefs/Bills moved to Monday night creating a double-header NFL DFS Classic slate on DraftKings. The Monday Night Football Showdown slates have reduced prize pools but the main slate has a million-to-first contest. FanDuel has a similar setup with larger prize pools on the main slate and modest payouts in their Single-Game format. We’ll look at the main slate by each position with a DraftKings focus but there will be some NFL DFS picks and notes for both Showdown slates as well.
Week 6 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Picks: Primetime Slate Tournament Strategy
Quarterback
The tournament strategy for this two-game slate starts off simple: Either play the Patrick Mahomes chalk and try to get unique elsewhere or pivot from Mahomes. The case for 2019’s MVP as the best play of the slate is strong. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this season and has topped 20 rushing yards in every contest since Week 1. On DraftKings, he’s also hit the bonus in three of his past four games. The problem with Mahomes is not only that he will be a popular NFL DFS pick. It’s also that rostering Mahomes means rostering multiple other chalky players for their correlation with Mahomes.
Andy Dalton is the best point-per-dollar value on DraftKings for Monday Night Football but is projected to be the least popular starting quarterback. This is despite Dalton playing on the most pass-heavy team in the NFL. Dallas is passing the ball 47.2 times per game. This is a product of passing on 66.2% of their plays and averaging 20.79 seconds per play. Those marks are second and first in the league. Dallas is also allowing 36 points per game, last in the NFL. Dak Prescott played well and earned the volume he saw, but Mike McCarthy also had no choice but to run his offense in this manner because of their horrid defensive play. Dalton will be a beneficiary of that and is going under-owned relative to his upside.
Kyler Murray and Josh Allen are both coming in around 25% ownership and are fine leverage plays off Mahomes. Murray is second in the NFL in quarterback rushing yards (296) and first in quarterback rushing touchdowns (five). Allen hasn’t done as much running as he has in previous years but only because he’s been so improved as a thrower. He’s completing 69.3% of his passes and averaging 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt. Allen offers a similar upside to Mahomes but will be less popular and cheaper.
Running Back
Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Ezekiel Elliott headline the most popular plays at running back. They are also two of the three best values. Both have immense touchdowns potential. Elliott has 11 carries inside the 5, and Edwards-Helaire has seven. Those marks are first and fifth in the league. Edwards-Helaire hasn’t scored since Week 1 but is averaging 19.6 opportunities (targets and carries) on one of the best offenses in the league. He’s another path to build leverage off Mahomes lineups. Elliott is third in targets (32) among running backs, so he could have a small amount of correlation with Dalton.
Kenyan Drake is $300 cheaper than Devin Singletary on DraftKings and is projected to be slightly more popular. This is despite Drake seeing 81.7% of the running back carries in Arizona while Singletary is at a 69.3% share of the backfield carries. Zack Moss led the Bills in red zone carries through two weeks before going down with a toe injury. He’s worth a flier in large-field tournaments, but DraftKings’ new $4,000 minimum price for backs hurts his value proposition. He’s best deployed in the early NFL DFS Showdown slate, where he only costs $1,600.
Wide Receiver
Chiefs/Bills
Demarcus Robinson is the way to get Mahomes lineups unique. Robinson ran more routes and saw more targets than Mecole Hardman when the two were tasked with filling in for Sammy Watkins last week. He’s nearly at the minimum price on DraftKings. Tyreek Hill‘s target share of 18.5% is barely top 40, but his 36.8% air yards share is 12th among receivers. Because Travis Kelce is the only premium tight end on the slate, his NFL DFS ownership is going to be incredibly high. A Mahomes/Hardman/Hill stack without Kelce offers a reasonable amount of leverage without fading all of the good plays.
Byron Pringle is only $400 on the Chiefs’ NFL DFS Showdown slate and could get in the mix with Watkins sidelined. He’s not in play on the main slate, but his nonexistent cost is worth chasing in Showdown.
Stefon Diggs has 51 targets and 522 air yards on the year. Both marks were top 10 among receivers before Week 6. He makes a great one-off play and is mandatory in Allen stacks. John Brown projects to be the most popular No. 2 receiver on the slate because of his $4,000 cost on DraftKings. Cole Beasley is second on the Bills in targets, receptions and receiving yards. He’s more expensive than Brown but helps create a unique Allen stack.
Cowboys/Cardinals
The receiver position solely depends on who your quarterback of choice is. Amari Cooper leads Dallas with a 23.8% target share and is the most likely stacking option with Dalton. Michael Gallup has been out-produced by rookie CeeDee Lamb, but his price has dropped to $4,700. His 475 air yards are top 15 among receivers and second on the Cowboys, and he is projected to be 10% less popular than Lamb.
DeAndre Hopkins is the best receiver to play without his passer. His 31.4% target share is second among receivers. He leads all receivers in receptions and receiving yards. Christian Kirk leads the Cardinals with a measly 38.5 receiving yards per game. He’ll be a unique play, but Murray may be best used in single stacks. Andy Isabella has at least three targets in four consecutive games and scored twice in Week 3 when Kirk was out. He has logged a career high in routes run in consecutive weeks. He’s on the fringe of viable in the largest tournaments and is in play as an NFL DFS pick for Showdown.
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Tight Ends
Kelce is second in targets (45) and air yards (350) for tight ends. He’s the best overall play and the best value choice at tight end. The only reason to not play him is for ownership purposes. Arizona doesn’t utilize Dan Arnold for him to be worth considering outside of the Showdown slate. He has two or fewer catches in all but one game this year. Tyler Kroft is normally nothing more than a committee tight end, but Dawson Knox has been ruled out. A full slate of snaps for Kroft puts him in the conversation as a low-owned pivot. Dalton Schultz is the last tight end of note. He is averaging 6.8 targets per since taking over as the starter in place of Blake Jarwin. He’s the ideal pivot off Kelce in Dalton stacks. Blake Bell has served as the backup to Shultz and has at least one target in every game this year. He makes for an interesting stacking option with Dalton in Shoqdown but can be ignored on the main slate.
Defense
Defense is thin on the Monday Night Football NFL DFS main slate. The Cowboys are cheap, but Murray hasn’t been taking sacks at a tremendous rate this season. His 4.2% sack rate is bottom 10 for quarterbacks. Still, their $2,500 cost and not having to face Mahomes makes Dallas the best value.
Kansas City is No. 11 in sacks No. 12 in takeaways. Allen has played well this season but showed his ability to regress to his 2019 form last week versus the Titans. He was intercepted twice and took one sack. They are worth considering as a stack with Edwards-Helaire in lineups that don’t use Mahomes.
The Cardinals don’t project as a good play based on value but still come in at high ownership. That makes them an easy fade this week.
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