Week 6 Sunday Night Football features the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are favored by 3.5 points, and the game has a 51-point total. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.
NFL DFS Picks: Sunday Night Football NFL DFS | San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Tight ends have rarely made the winning lineup as a Captain in the past year, but Kittle has been the exception to that rule. He has been the only tight end to make the lineup as Captain in the regular season, and he’s done so twice. After missing two games with a knee injury, Kittle has returned with a vengeance. He’s seen 23 targets in two contests back. That gives him a 30% target share to go with his 27% air yards share. He’s the No. 1 receiver or tight end to pay for on this slate.
Mostert missed some of Week 2 and all of the following two games. In those two games, he’s seen 63% of the San Francisco backfield carries. He also saw five targets, a team high among the San Francisco backs, in their Week 5 loss to Miami. The 49ers are underdogs this week but that could keep Mostert’s ownership at Captain low.
The Rams don’t have a clear top receiver, but they do appear to have a favorite option this year.
The only problem with Rams receivers is that their team wants to run the ball as often as possible. The Rams are one of just four teams who run on over 50% of their plays. Los Angeles may need to find themselves on the losing end of this game for either receiver to be worth playing at the Captain. That could help both correlate with Mostert. Consider increasing exposure to Mostert when Woods, or preferably Kupp, are in the Captain spot.
Rams Running Backs
The Rams backfield has seemingly been a mess, but it’s possible that Darrell Henderson is their guy. He only saw 15 of 32 Rams carries last week, but most of his came while the game was still competitive.
% of Week 5 touches that came during *garbage time:
Gus Edwards 80%
Matt Breida 80%
Malcolm Brown 80%
Cam Akers 67%
D'Ernest Johnson 67% (Hunt cramped)
*defined by the in-game winning percentage being below 10% or above 90%
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 12, 2020
Henderson has topped 15 opportunities (targets and carries) in three of five games this year. He was also dealing with a hamstring injury entering Week 1. There’s no way of being sure who Sean McVay wants to use, but it’s been Henderson in three weeks and Malcolm Brown in two weeks. Cam Akers has yet to lead the backfield in touches but has also missed two games with a rib injury. If Brown usurps Henderson like he did in Week 4, he could be worth considering at the Flex given his $1,600 cost.
NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations
Jimmy Garoppolo was benched last week after getting picked apart by the lowly Dolphins defense. He’s set to start again this week but the Rams defense has been stout against the pass. Los Angeles is the No. 4 graded coverage team by Pro Football Focus. Garoppolo’s Week 5 implosion could keep his ownership in check despite only costing $9,800.
The Rams’ run-first approach hurts the outlook of Jared Goff, but a $10,800 price tag for a quarterback on a team with a 27.75 implied total is enticing. He also doesn’t run the risk of getting benched. Goff is the better overall play, and it’s affordable to get both quarterbacks in the Flex, which has historically been correlated to high totals.
After missing three weeks while recovering from foot surgery, Deebo Samuel appears to be ready to supplant Brandon Aiyuk as the No. 1 wide receiver in San Francisco. He played 17 snaps in Week 4, but that number jumped to 39 in Week 5, only four behind Aiyuk. He also saw eight targets to Aiyuk’s six and got a carry in his second game back. Kendrick Bourne is clearly the third receiver and is not far behind the top two 49ers wideouts. He played on 35 snaps in Week 5 and saw five targets. He’s a great leverage play off of both in the Flex.
Defense and Kicker
Our projections have the Rams defense as the better play of the two defenses despite their $5,600 tag. However, they still rank as low-tier plays in a game that projects to feature 51 points. The Rams defense makes sense in lineups without Garoppolo and ones built on the premise that the under hits. Rams kicker Sam Sloman only costs $200 more than Robbie Gould and is on the favored team.
Lower-Owned NFL Picks
Reynolds only has 16 targets on the year, but he’s second on the Rams in air yards (184) because his 11.5 average depth of target is double that of Woods and nearly double Kupp’s aDOT. He’s third on the Rams in routes run.
Everett is the reason that Tyler Higbee has yet to appear in this article. Since scoring three times in Week 2, Higbee has just eight targets while Everett has seven. Both have caught seven passes, but Everett’s prowess after the catch has given him a 62-yard edge in receiving yards. Everett is $2,200 cheaper and can be projected for nearly as much volume as Higbee.
49ers Backup Runners
Update: Jeff Wilson has been ruled out. McKinnon projects as one of the better low-cost plays on the slate.
Jerick McKinnon has been relegated back to his role as the pass-catching back with Mostert healthy. He was targeted four times last week but only saw one carry. Jeff Wilson is a pure backup to Mostert. He saw four carries and a target in Week 5. His $800 cost makes him the preferred play, but McKinnon could see the field more if the 49ers get down early.
Looking for more NFL DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.