📽️ The NFL DFS Strategy Show: Week 7 Matchups | Dave Loughran & Matt Savoca | 11 AM ET | 10/22

It’s Thursday, which means there’s a DraftKings Showdown and FanDuel single-game slate, but it also means it’s matchup day. So, it’s our marathon show with Dave Loughran and Matt Savoca where they go game-by-game and take a look at all the Week 7 NFL DFS matchups. They’ll break down all the major fantasy players you’re looking at as NFL DFS picks to put in your FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo lineups, including Julio Jones and Kareem Hunt.

NFL DFS Picks & Strategy Show: Week 7 NFL DFS Matchups | 11 AM ET

Here’s an excerpt from Matt’s Week 7 NFL DFS and Fantasy Football Matchups Column

Seattle Passing Game

The Seahawks enter week 7 well-rested after their bye week, and quite healthy on the offensive side of the ball. After a dramatic game winning drive to close out their week 5 win, MVP frontrunner Russell Wilson returns to action after (technically) his worse game of 2020, where he threw for just 217 yards on 32 attempts, but managed to rack-up three passing touchdowns (including the game winner in the final seconds), en route to his fourth top-10 fantasy scoring performance this season. Wilson and the Seahawks rank in the upper echelon of the league in nearly every important offensive aggressiveness metric. They’re number one in true early down success rate and second in early down air yards per second in neutral situations (air yards per play divided by seconds per play). Meanwhile, Wilson is eighth in deep attempts, and sixth in air yards per attempt, and fourth in air yards, while the Cardinals rank just 17th in PFF’s coverage grade, and 26th in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA. Needless to say, Wilson will take his shots, and in all likelihood he’ll have opportunities for big plays. His odds of being top-5 at his position fantasy scoring this weekend are as high as anyone on this weekend’s slate.

Part of the reason Wilson’s passing floor, and the team’s shift towards aggressiveness in general this season, is because of the Seahawks’ inability to rely on their own defense to stop opposing passing attacks. It’s clear that the Seattle coaching staff, understanding that their secondary’s likely give up chunk plays and points, is choosing to preemptively unleash Wilson, and it’s working fantastically. This general makeup of the Seahawks in 2020 – a team with a weak defensive secondary and lethal passing attack on their own offense – is the perfect weekly recipe for shootouts. Should that be the case here in week 7 (as the sky-high Vegas total suggests), the primary beneficiaries would be Wilson’s dynamic duo of receivers, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who could see increased opportunities beyond their 7.8 and 7.6 target per game average. Though Metcalf has the clear lead in the air yards department, and ranks top-5 in the NFL in true weighted opportunity share, making him the technical “1-A” to Lockett’s “1-B,” Lockett already has a game with 13 targets this season, and the pair are one of five receiver duos to command 50% of their team’s true weighted opportunity share. Both rank in the top-20 most advantageous matchups when faced against Arizona’s cornerbacks Dre Kirkpatrick and Byron Murphy, however expect Patrick Peterson to spend plenty of time despite his lacking defensive grade from PFF this season, traveling from his typical left cornerback position to spend more time covering Seattle’s primary receiving weapons.

With so much of the opportunity funneled toward Seattle’s “big-2”, every other piece in the Seattle receiving game should be considered a dart-throw play each week. Greg Olsen has managed to see a 12% target share, and 10% of the air yards, but has had virtually no production, scoring four less fantasy points than David Moore, who only has 14 targets all season. Both backup tight end Will Dissly and rookie receiver Freddie Swain, who play on 42% and 35% of snaps, respectively, and have seen eight targets apiece, should be on MME players’ radars this weekend. In a game environment where both squads could end up scoring 5-plus touchdowns, it’s absolutely possible either nabs one or two of them.

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