The Los Angeles Rams host the Chicago Bears on Week 7 of Monday Night Football. The game total is falling and currently sits at 44.5 points. The Rams are 6-point favorites. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.
NFL DFS Picks: Monday Night Football | Rams vs. Bears
Showdown Captain
Allen Robinson
Robinson entered Week 7 with 65 targets and 665 air yards. Those marks are first and fifth in the NFL, respectively. He’ll face coverage from Jalen Ramsey this week, but that hasn’t been an unwinnable matchup this year. Amari Cooper opened the year with 114 yards on Ramsey. If a cornerback matchup is going to have any effect on the most used receiver in the league, buy the dip. His 28% target share puts him in play at Captain whether or not the Bears win. For that reason, he’s one of the best plays in 2-4 constructions as well.
David Montgomery
Chicago has given the entirety of their rushing workload to Montgomery this year. He’s only averaging 13.7 carries and 50.8 yards, but he’s seeing 69.5% of the running back carries (including Cordarrelle Patterson as a running back). Because of this, his odds of scoring a touchdown that isn’t shared with another player are high. Passing scores don’t share that quality.
Montgomery has also seen an uptick in receiving usage in recent weeks. Since the Bears lost Tarik Cohen to a torn ACL, Montgomery is posting 33 receiving snaps, 6.3 targets and 33 receiving yards per game. Awesemo’s Top Showdown Plays tool currently has him as one of the field’s biggest blind spots at Captain.
Rams Receivers
The Rams receiving volume has been completely split between Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods:
- Kupp – 44 targets, 316 air yards, 5 red zone targets
- Woods – 42 targets, 343 air yards, 5 red zone targets
There’s no discernable difference in the volume these two players are seeing. They are both running routes on over 90% of the Rams’ passing plays as well. If there’s no difference in their volume, lean on the ownership. Our ownership has Kupp as a less popular play at Captain, so he gets the edge.
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Darrell Henderson
Henderson is currently running as the RB1 in Los Angeles, but he’s had a loose grip on that job this year. He’s seen at least 14 carries in three of his past four games but also has two games of fewer than 10 total touches. Malcolm Brown is getting work on receiving downs. Henderson has one or fewer receptions in four games this year. Three of those games have come in his past four outings. He appears to be a between-the-tackles grinder, but the Rams do run at the fourth-highest rate (51.2%) in the league. He’s worth a small amount of exposure at Captain.
NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations
Quarterbacks
Neither quarterback has a great chance of making the optimal Captain slot in tournaments because neither Jared Goff nor Nick Foles has topped 15 yards on the ground this year. Both also have receivers who see a large portion of the passing game. That means if Foles has an impressive outing, Robinson is almost certainly outscoring him. The same is true of Goff, but having two receivers who split the top role does give him an edge. His $10,400 is only $600 more than Foles, but the Top Plays tool has him as significantly more likely to be in the winning lineup as a Flex. After Foles’ miraculous comeback win over Atlanta, when he scored three times, he’s fallen back to Earth, throwing a score and an interception in every game. He’s the easy quarterback fade to get unique in tournaments.
Wanna bet??
Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker’s projected stats (part of Awesemo+) have Nick Foles projected for just 239.5 yards passing tonight, making the 249.5 UNDER at -125 on OddsShopper a solid deal. Click on the image below to start shopping for the best edge in betting and check out all the player props available for tonight’s Monday Night Football game between the Bears and Rams.
Anthony Miller and Darnell Mooney
The Bears have chosen to play Mooney over Miller in recent weeks, and that decision has all but ruined Miller’s fantasy appeal. Mooney has run 15 more routes than Miller over the past three weeks. On the year, Mooney’s 21% air yards share and 13% target share are six and two points ahead of Miller. Mooney is the only Bears wide receiver after Robinson worth looking at.
Jimmy Graham
Graham has played well in Chicago after looking done for in Green Bay. His 36 targets are second on the team, and he’s faired even better under Foles. In the contests Foles has played in, Graham is posting 4.5 catches for 40 yards per game. Graham also leads Chicago with 10 red zone targets. His price is climbing but that could keep his ownership in check this week.
Rams Tight Ends
Sean McVay is splitting his tight end work fairly evenly between Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett. Over the past three weeks, Higbee has run a route on 48.6% of Goff’s dropbacks, while Everett’s rate sits at 37.6%. Higbee has 10 targets to Everett’s nine over that span. Higbee’s price of $6,200 makes him the preferred option, but neither is a great play.
Defense and Kicker
Defenses have had a rough go of things to start the 2020 season because of the offensive boom, but this NFL DFS Showdown slate doesn’t resemble most primetime games. The low total and mediocre quarterback play bring both defenses into consideration. The Rams defense is fifth in sacks and faces Foles on the road as an underdog. They’re $5,600 price is expensive but could be worth it if they take advantage of a middling quarterback. They could even be viable at Captain and will be virtually unowned there. Another approach could be to play a Bears players at Captain versus the Rams defenses. This has been in the winning lineup in 11.9% of contests over the past year and a half. The games that it has worked in average a 33.4 final cumulative score.
The Rams are 29th in field goal attempts per game, while the Bears are 15th. The lesser point projection from the Chicago offenses hurts Cairo Santos, but their willingness to settle for 3 points makes him the better kicker choice.
Lower-Owned NFL Picks
Malcolm Brown
McVay has talked about using Brown as their back on passing downs, and he’s averaging four targets per game over his last three outings. That’s on top of his 6.3 rushes per game over the same time span. Brown is only $3,400, making him one of the best values on the slate.
Josh Reynolds
Reynolds is running a route on 71.3% of Goff’s dropbacks and has 20 targets on the year. That’s double the amount that rookie Van Jefferson has. Reynolds has been targeted at least four times in each of his past four games. He’s another Rams rotational player that gets enough work to be considered in tournaments.
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