Week 9 daily fantasy football is starting to get pretty heavy on news to watch for and we have to be prepared for some late shuffling of NFL DFS picks on this Sunday’s main slate with injury and COVID-19 developments. Michael Thomas remains questionable — as he has seemingly been all year — to suit up this week with Calvin Ridley (foot) also looking highly doubtful to play after he missed practice on Thursday. If Ridley misses time, it should bump up the sentiment on Julio Jones and make Russell Gage and Christian Blake into daily fantasy football NFL DFS picks.
Matthew Stafford is also a name to watch on Sunday. It was initially thought he might have to sit out this week after going on the Covid-19 list, but he was only “in close contact” with someone who had the disease and hasn’t tested positive yet himself. If he tests negative on Saturday he could play this Sunday. The Lions/Vikings game is OTB right now but they were playing to a 50+ point total prior to Stafford’s announcement. Detroit will also be without Kenny Golladay this week which should open things up for Marvin Jones Jr, TJ Hockenson and potentially Quintez Cephus, who could all see a couple more targets than normal.
As of writing, the games with the biggest point totals this week included Seahawks at the Bills (O/U 55) and the Panthers at the Chiefs (O/U 52.5). However, there are plenty of lofty totals — there are currently five games with a point total of 50 or more on the main slate. With weather not as big of an issue, it could end up being a high-scoring week in DFS.
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Week 9 NFL DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Grades & Values
QB: Josh Allen ($7,000) Grades: A, Values: A
Allen has a fantastic matchup this week against Seattle, which gets him on the DFS radar immediately. The Seahawks have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to QBs in the league this year and opposing teams have thrown the ball an average of 47-times per game against them — the highest in the league by a considerable margin. Allen comes into this game off his worst start of the season from a fantasy perspective, and in a bit of lull. After starting the year with four straight games of 25-DK points or more, he’s now gone under 20-points in each of his last four.
Allen will need to find the same form he had in the first four games here to help you produce a top lineup, but considering Seattle has allowed opposing QBs to complete 68% of their passes there does seem like there’s a great chance that happens. Stefon Diggs has a terrific matchup here with Seattle’s best corner in Shaq Griffin likely out, which should only increase Allen’s upside potential. Allen has a slightly better points projection than Lamar Jackson this week, who is slightly cheaper than him, and Allen also carries the second-best value score of any QB on Awesemo. Regardless of how you chose to stack this Seattle/Buffalo game, starting lineups with Allen this week isn’t a bad way to begin the process.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 8.8%
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RB: James Robinson ($7,000) Grades: A, Values: A
Robinson comes into this week’s matchup against the Texans averaging 20.1 DK fantasy points per game and averaging 8.3 yards per reception. It’s the receiving work that is significant with Robison as the Jaguars come into this week’s game as +7.0 underdogs, meaning there is a great chance/likelihood that the Jaguars will be in a pass heavy mode for much of this game. Robinson has been a solid runner — he’s averaging 4.5 YPC on the ground — but his work as a receiver has made him an extremely valuable upside play and he comes in seeing 5.25 targets per game, over his last five starts.
Houston is also a wet dream for opposing RBs as the Texans have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the second-worst yards-per-carry average to opposing RBs this season. Robinson did produce one of his worst games of the year against Houston in Week 5 but also showcased how strong his floor is by catching five passes and getting 18-touches despite JAX being behind all game. The Awesemo model loves him as he has the second-highest points projection and third-best value score despite being at his highest price-point of the season on DraftKings.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 16.2%
WR: Keenan Allen ($7,000) Grades: A, Values: B
It’s not shocking to see Allen grade out so well in the Awesemo model this week. The Chargers WR ranks third in the league in targets overall, and has now seen 24 balls thrown his way the last two games. Vegas may not have allowed a ton of receptions to the position this year but their corners have still been beaten on a consistent basis. Vegas has allowed six TDs to wide-outs now over their last four games and Allen sets up here with a great matchup against slot corner Lamarcus Joyner, whom he carries a six inch height advantage over.
The Raiders-Chargers game also looks like a ripe one to attack for DFS this week as it currently features two poor pass rushes and an O/U of 52 — LA has an implied team total of 27.25. Allen rates out with a high ownership projection but also has the third-highest points projection at his position. Despite the price increase over last week, he’s not overpriced here either and has the best value score on the model of anyone 7K or lower on DraftKings this week. With his QB firing and another great matchup on tap, continuing to ride the heavy targets with Allen seems like a solid NFL DFS pick in Week 9.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 25.7%
TE: Hayden Hurst ($4,100) Grades: B, Values: B
The Falcons play at home vs. the Broncos this week and with Calvin Ridley looking almost certain not to play, it should open up opportunities for other Atlanta receivers. Hurst started the season slowly but has now seen 14-targets and caught 11-passes over the last two games. While there’s been a decided lack of big games from Hurst this season — especially compared to what Austin Hooper put up in his place last year — we should be watching the recent uptick in targeting for him closely here.
Hurst’s snap count has also risen as the season has progressed, as he didn’t get close to seeing over 80% of the offensive snaps in the first four weeks but has now eclipsed 80% in each of his last four games. The Broncos aren’t the greatest matchup on paper here but Atlanta’s defense (or lack thereof) tends to drive teams into more passing and faster game play — ATL ranks sixth in pace of play stats on the year. Hurst’s breakthrough week could easily come in this spot and he grades out well on Awesemo in most categories, ranking first in value score and third in points projection among all those at his position. At just 4.1K on DraftKings this week, he should be looked at as a reliable target if you’re not interested in paying up to the top two plays.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 11.3%
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Contrarian NFL DFS Stack: Broncos/Falcons
The Broncos come into this game as just +3.5 underdogs and supporting a decent 23-point implied team total in a game against Atlanta that has a total O/U of 50.0 as of writing. Lots of the Broncos passing pieces are cheap this week and QB Drew Lock ($5,200) comes in here off his best game of the season — a 3 TD performance against the Chargers. Atlanta has given up the most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs so his 5.2k DraftKings salary makes him a pretty ideal stacking target. Tim Patrick ($4,900) has now had two games with 99 or more receiving yards in his last three starts and will have a dream matchup against Atlanta corner Blidi Wreh-Wilson here, whom he carries a significant height and weight advantage over. Noah Fant ($4,600) and Albert Okwuegbunam ($2,800) also make for good additions against an Atlanta team who has given up the most fantasy points to the TE position this year, and an 81% completion rate on all target to TE’s overall.
Stacking the cheap and lower-owned Broncos also makes your Julio Jones ($7,200) shares more unique. Jones is projecting out as the highest owned WR of the week — as Ridley is expected to miss this game. Using Jones as a comeback play is fine but TE Hayden Hurst (see above) is also another player to consider coming back with as he’s averaged seven targets in his last two games. Russell Gage ($4,500) and Christian Blake ($3,000) could also see upticks in targets and Blake is reportedly going to work into three WR sets if Ridley misses. Gage may see more field in this spot, but he has a tough matchup against Bryce Callahan who has been a solid slot corner this year, so the edge for upside may actually go to Blake.
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