Greetings Gamers! Welcome back to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights we will be providing a free analysis for the Showdown slate action. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments.
Week 1 gave us a little more information to digest. Though even adding that to the limited preseason and training camp information, we still have a lot of unanswered questions.
The other key to remember is that strategy and lineup construction are crucial to get that ever elusive edge on single game slates.
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Tune into NFL Live Before Lock tonight at 7:30pm ET as EMac and Nolan Kelly break down Monday’s game for Showdown formats.
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets +6.5 / 45.0
NOTABLE INACTIVES: Bilal Powell, Dontrell Hilliard, Rashard HIggins, Sam Darnold
In what was shaping up to be an interesting matchup, is now a potential train wreck. Preseason Darling status was bestowed upon Cleveland, who promptly lost at home 43-13 to Tennessee. Then not to be outdone, the Jets had to shelve Sam Darnold with mononucleosis and Quincy Enunwa is out for the season with a neck injury. Off season signee Le’Veon Bell is questionable (shoulder) and new acquisition Demaryius Thomas is questionable. Finally we turn to the J-E-T-S, jets, Jets, JETS defense who will be without C.J. Mosley and Quinnen Williams. Where is Tim Tebow when you need him?!
Cleveland Browns 25.75 implied points
Baker Mayfield was a mess in Week 1 with three interceptions, though he did not have much help from his offensive line. Adding insult to injury, he was sacked five times for minus 41 yards. Putting that in perspective, in his final eight games of last season he was sacked five total times. Fortunately for him, the Jets have lost some key defensive personnel as noted above. He is still going to have to earn it on the road as most projection systems have him in the QB15-20 range for the full week.
Nick Chubb had a solid game with 17/75/0 on the ground and he caught three of his four targets for another ten yards. Yes, he did not crack 100 yards or reach the end zone, but he cornered the market on running back touches. With two key defenders out for the Jets, we can confidently employ Chubb in all formats (single game and the Sun-Mon night contests).
It should be no surprise that off-season acquisition Odell Beckham Jr. lead the way among the receiving options for Cleveland. Veteran and former college teammate Jarvis Landry was in the mix as well. The real question is will this pecking order remain or will we see some shifting from the bottom up? For Monday night, that does not matter as much, but it is something to keep tabs on.
|Player||Snaps||Snap %||Tgts||Recpt||Rec Yds||TDs|
|Odell Beckham Jr.||73||100%||11||7||71||0|
For the single game slate, I would lean towards Rashard Higgins over Damion Rately. It is interesting that both were able to beat out Antonio Calloway during the preseason.
David Njoku is a physical specimen, but he needs to do a better job of catching the ball. He should be able to have his way with the Jets decimated defense in the red zone and he is an intriguing option Monday night.
Last season Cleveland managed 37 sacks which was in the bottom third of the league. They did get to Marcus Mariotta four times last week even while getting blown out. In a fun twist of events, the Jets allowed 37 sacks last season which was in the top-third of the league. Sam Darnold was sacked four times last week by the Bills. Now we know that Trevor Siemian who is in his fifth year after being drafted in the seventh round from Northwestern. During his time with Denver he was prone to holding on to the ball and that will likely be the case on Monday.
New York Jets 19.25 implied points
Trevor Siemian is best served as a backup who actually does not have to play. He is not decisive and does not get through his progressions quickly. On a positive note, he is one of two starting quarterbacks in this game.
Raise your hand if you thought it was crazy to have Le’Veon Bell play every snap after a year and a half away from live action. It should be no surprise that he is questionable and had to get a mid-week MRI (shoulder). He is very likely to play, but we have to think that even smelling salt aficionado Adam Gase will be prudent with his workload. Yeah… Adam Gase and prudent do not belong in the same sentence.
Ty Montgomery will be the direct beneficiary and should see a third of the snaps if we are living in a rational world. Keep in mind that in the final week of training camp, word was that Montgomery would be in a timeshare with Bell. Considering it was 72 snaps to 5, that did not come to pass. I am still willing to take a chance on Montgomery, particularly with his $1,600 DraftKings salary.
It looks like Jamison Crowder and Robby Anderson will at least be getting the targets from Trevor Siemian. If they are catch-able is an entirely different conversation. With Quincy Enunwa out for the season and newcomer Demaryius Thomas unlikely to play much if at all, Josh Bellamy will serve as the third wide receiver.
At least we can turn to Chris Herndon. Oh wait, he is suspended and will not be available until Week 6 (the Jets have a bye in Week 4). That leaves Houston Texans castoff Ryan Griffin as the placeholder. My sincere apologies to Jets fans.
With how thin the Jets offense appears to be, we have to think the defense will be on the field A TON. Keep in mind that LB C.J. Mosley and DE Quinnen Williams have been ruled out. We are hoping for a return touchdown or some other sort of voodoo magic when choosing this unit.
Strategy: we are not going to be alone in wanting to roll with the bulk of our roster being made up of the Browns. This means that there is merit to looking at some of the Jets players in the hopes of hitting on someone who finds the end zone. Le’Veon Bell and kicker Sam Ficken are going to be popular, so think outside of the box.
Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)
- Odell Beckham Jr: he can score from anywhere on the field and loves the limelight.
- Nick Chubb: with two of the better Jets defenders ruled out, this would be a great time for coach Freddie Kitchens to lean on his running back.
- Baker Mayfield: fingers-crossed that last week was an aberration and that he finds his sea legs on the road against a decimated defense.
- Le’Veon Bell: as long as the shoulder is okay, coach Adam Gase will be willing to run him into the ground. Bell will be wildly popular as the best option from the Jets facing a Cleveland onslaught lineup strategy. This will NOT BE the road less traveled on Monday.
- David Njoku: we are looking for another touchdown from him as he typically does not have a lot of volume. That will be particularly true with Beckham now on the team.
- Jamison Crowder: he is not cheap when considering he has a backup quarterback under center. At least he should be good for a half dozen targets in the slot.
- Robbie Anderson: on FanDuel there is a strong argument to rolling with Anderson over Crowder for the discount and half-PPR. The one nagging detail is can Siemian accurately get him the ball 20+ yards downfield.
- Jarvis Landry: similarly priced to Crowder on both sites but he is the third or perhaps fourth option for Cleveland. Full-PPR is more his style like Crowder and both are much better DraftKings options.
- Ty Montgomery: in the event Bell is out, Montgomery moves to #4 on DraftKings and #6 on FanDuel. I would not play both Bell and Montgomery on the same lineup since it caps the latter’s potential upside.
- Trevor Siemian: he is one of two starting quarterbacks in this game.
- Cleveland D/ST: even though the Browns gave up 43 points last week, they should be good for a handful of sacks and turnovers. With the way things are shaking out, they will be wildly popular.
- Sam Ficken and Austin Seibert: let price be the tiebreaker for you (i.e. spend or save depending on the rest of your roster).
- Damion Ratley: gets the nod over Higgins for the discount and health factor.
- Rashard Higgins: more talented that Ratley, but more expensive and dealing with sore knee. Both are well down the pecking order in the Browns aerial plans.
- Josh Bellamy: he is at least healthy.
- Demaryius Thomas: unlikely to play, but he has caught in-game passes from Siemian before.
- Ryan Griffin: DraftKings only for the extreme savings at $800.
- Demetrius Harris: literally go buy a lottery ticket instead of making that lineup with him.
- Luke Falk: activated off the Jets practice squad and he paved the way at Wazzu for Gardner Minshew. Also know as The Seige Strategy.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
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