Greetings Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all your daily fantasy needs.
Week 2 saw the chalk wash away like tears in the rain. Some was a result of poor play and some was due to rampant injuries affecting key players. Let’s turn our focus to Week 3 and see what the single game prime time matchups have to offer.
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Tune into NFL Live Before Lock on Monday at 7:30pm ET as Nolan Kelly and Eric Vojvodich break down tonight’s game for Showdown formats.
Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins +5.0 / 41.0
How can we have so many teams, yet so many crummy “island” game matchups in the Prime Time slots?!
For today’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks click here.
Chicago Bears 23.0 implied points
So for the real burning question… is Mitchell Trubisky bad, unlucky or mediocre at best? This is a phenomenal matchup for him with Washington having both a bottom-five rushing and passing DVOA. This matches up with the Redskins also allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and the third most to opposing signal-callers.
This is the second-straight road game for the Bears, having won a controversial nail-biter in Denver last Sunday. Coach Matt Nagy has made Trubisky look phenomenal in games, so I have not yet given up hope. For the full week, Trubisky ranks as QB20-25, which feels right for the matchup and his recent performances.
It looks like rookie David Montgomery already has the edge in the running game and last week he had the most snaps. We saw a drop for Tarik Cohen, but keep in mind he was used quite a bit out of the slot in Week 1. That was not the case in Denver and he was back to his more “traditional” role as the change-of-pace back.
Veteran Mike Davis is lurking and will probably pop up a time or two this season even with everyone healthy. Keep in mind he dropped to 15 snaps with three carries and no targets in Week 2, but he is still in play on Monday night.
It is nice to see Allen Robinson recovering from his knee injury now that he is beginning his second season healthy. The former Carolina Panther has absolutely dominated the target share and it is not even close. Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller are fine as differentiation plays in the single game contests.
|Snaps||Snap %||Tgts||Recpt||Rec Yds||TDs|
|Allen Robinson WR||125||93%||20||11||143||0|
|Tarik Cohen RB||74||55%||15||10||56||0|
|Taylor Gabriel WR||120||90%||7||3||35||0|
|David Montgomery RB||55||41%||4||2||33||0|
|Adam Shaheen TE||55||41%||5||4||30||0|
|Ben Braunecker TE||25||19%||3||2||24||0|
|Mike Davis RB||56||42%||7||6||17||0|
|Trey Burton TE||26||19%||3||2||5||0|
|Cordarrelle Patterson WR||35||26%||3||1||3||0|
|Anthony Miller WR||48||36%||2||1||2||0|
There are now three healthy tight ends in the mix and the trio each saw three targets last week. The snaps were split Trey Burton 26/43%, Adam Shaheen 21 / 34% and Ben Braunecker 15 / 25%.
Last season, Chicago was first in both rushing and passing DVOA. Through two games, they are fifth and seventeenth, but this is a cherry matchup for the Monsters of the Midway.
Washington Redskins 18.0 implied points
Case Keenum has been in the bottom-five signal-callers of every projection system I looked at this week. This is going to be one of the toughest matchups for him all season and he will again be without Jordan Reed.
It is likely that Washington does their best to feed Adrian Peterson, but just how long will that plan last? We won’t be alone in looking towards Chris Thompson, who will likely see the bulk of the work receiving as well as rushing when/if the Bears get a decent lead.
Last week Peterson saw 18 snaps with 10/25/1 on the ground and his first two targets of the season which he hauled in for seven yards. Wendell Smallwood saw 16 snaps in his first action on offense and Thompson had 28 snaps.
Terry McLaurin, Trey Quinn and Paul Richardson are not exactly household names. This is going to be an uphill battle from the jump, but at least their roles are locked in.
|Snaps||Snap %||Tgts||Recpt||Rec Yds||TDs|
|Terry McLaurin WR||118||91%||16||10||187||2|
|Chris Thompson RB||71||55%||18||12||116||0|
|Vernon Davis TE||101||78%||11||7||88||1|
|Trey Quinn WR||114||88%||13||8||69||1|
|Paul Richardson WR||106||82%||10||7||52||1|
|Kelvin Harmon WR||21||16%||2||2||31||0|
|Derrius Guice RB||24||19%||3||3||20||0|
|Jeremy Sprinkle TE||36||28%||2||2||19||0|
|Wendell Smallwood RB||16||12%||2||2||9||0|
|Adrian Peterson RB||18||14%||2||2||7||0|
|Steven Sims Jr. WR||5||4%||1||1||3||0|
Vernon Davis is entering his fourteenth season and once again is being asked to carry the load in the absence of Jordan Reed. He can still keep the defense honest and does have a quick burst on tight end seem routes. Jeremy Sprinkle is the backup, though he has just one target in each of the first two games.
Through the first two games, the Bears have allowed five sacks and one interception. Washington has just two sacks and one takeaway. We are hoping for a lucky return touchdown for this unit to have value.
Strategy: this should be an interesting build as there really is no true “standout” option and things get thin rather quickly. A lot of gamers will look to play both quarterbacks, which is a fine idea. Keep in mind that will probably be 75-80% of the field, so in the large field tournaments, do consider some lineups with just one built around an outcome with your other players. The obvious one would be Keenum and a couple of his receivers with David Montgomery on the other side along with a defense or kicker.
Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)
- Mitch Trubisky: while I agree that he is not exciting and he needs to prove his worth, he is the best quarterback in this game.
- Case Keenum: this is an interesting price point for Keenum, who is $1,000 more than Trubisky on FanDuel and just $200 less on DraftKings.
- David Montgomery: speaking of which, here we go with the rookie who should be commanding the best workload among all running backs in this tilt.
- Allen Robinson: this is a good matchup for him to break off a long one… assuming Trubisky can accurately get him the ball.
- Terry McLaurin: until this season, I had never heard of him, but he is the undisputed WR1 for Washington. He is on the field for most of the snaps and seems to be developing a nice rapport with Keenum.
- Chris Thompson: it is nice that he is “priced up” on both sites, taking into account the limited offensive options in this affair.
- Chicago D/ST: they are actually in contention as a “Captain” on DraftKings Check out the Awesemo Player %s to see how popular that gambit will be.
- Adrian Peterson: the hope is that he gets a touchdown on the first or second drive. The other possibility is a close or low scoring game that would help him stay on the field.
- Taylor Gabriel: he has been on the field for 90% of the Bears offensive snaps. This is a great discount, we just need a few more opportunities than what he has seen so far. He is best when getting the ball in space.
- Tarik Cohen: much like Gabriel, he can score from anywhere on the field. Unlike Gabriel, he can create his own opportunities. He returns punts and kickoffs for the Bears as well.
- Vernon Davis: a phenomenal price point on FanDuel, a much more difficult decision on DraftKings.
- Dustin Hopkins: legitimately a decent option for Washington at home.
- Eddie Pineiro: dealing with a sore knee – practiced on Saturday so he should be okay.
- Trey Quinn: a better option in full-PPR, but fairly priced on FanDuel. A steal on DraftKings, he will be popular. Keep in mind he returns punts.
- Paul Richardson: not getting many looks, but he is a burner and it just takes one.
- Mike Davis and Wendell Smallwood: third running back for each team, purely a price play.
- Washington D/ST: keep in mind that you can only lose -4 points from scoring, that said this unit could end up negative.
- Chicago Tight End: literally a grab back with a slight order of preference being Trey Burton, Adam Shaheen and Ben Braunecker.
- Anthony Miller: well down the pecking order, needs an in-game injury for relevance.
- Cordarrelle Patterson: backup kick returner, will see a handful of snaps on offense.
- Steven Sims Jr: returns kickoffs for Washington.
- Jeremy Sprinkle: go buy some scratch off tickets instead of playing showdown tonight.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac
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