NFL Prime Time Games: Showdown Week 4 Thursday Night Football (FREE)

Greetings Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all your daily fantasy needs.

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Tune into NFL Live Before Lock on Thursday at 7:30pm ET as Alex “Awesemo” Baker, Ben Rasa and Nolan Kelly break down tonight’s game for Showdown formats.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers -4.5 / 45.5

This is an interesting matchup for a Thursday Night Game. We have two good teams and also a variety of offensive options. The key will be just how good is the Green Bay defense and just how bad is the Philadelphia secondary.

For today’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks click here

Philadelphia Eagles 21.0 implied points

Quarterback

The burning question for this matchup is just how good is the Green Bay defense. Football Outsiders has given their passing defense the third best DVOA through three weeks, though their rushing defense is twenty-second. With the bye weeks starting (NYJ and SF) there are 30 teams in action and Carson Wentz is coming in as the QB15-20 in most projection systems.

While the passing yardage may be in the 240-260 range this week, we can take comfort with his multi-touchdown efforts in each of the first three games. This includes six aerial touchdowns and another on the ground in Atlanta during the Week 2 tilt. The Packers have allowed more more than 230 passing yards in any of their first three outings, but they have faced Joe Flacco, Kirk Cousins and Mitchell Trubisky. They have surrendered only one touchdown to opposing signal-callers and have four interceptions and a dozen sacks.

Running Back

This is a three-headed monster from an “on the field” perspective between Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard and Darren Sproles. From a production standpoint, Sanders and Howard have been splitting the rushing duties and it has been Sanders and Sproles with the target opportunities. In an interesting twist, the Packers have ceded the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Most of that damage came in Week 3 with Phillip Lindsay posting 21/81/2 rushing and 4/49/0 receiving and with Dalvin Cook getting 20/154/1 rushing and 3/37/0 receiving in Week 2.

Wide Receiver

We should have the return of Alshon Jeffrey which will help out Carson Wentz. There should still be room for Nelson Agholor, though it is likely that Mack Hollins may see a few less. It is likely that J.J. Arcega-Whiteside slides into the background once again. This is going to be a tough road matchup against a squad allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.

Player

Snaps Snap % Trgts Recpt Rec Yds TDs
Zach Ertz TE 219 94% 30 17 190 0
Nelson Agholor WR 213 92% 28 18 168 3
DeSean Jackson WR 63 27% 9 8 154 2
Mack Hollins WR 154 66% 15 9 112 0
Miles Sanders RB 97 42% 10 6 84 0
Alshon Jeffery WR 66 28% 7 5 49 1
Darren Sproles RB 78 34% 7 5 21 0
Jordan Howard RB 60 26% 5 3 19 0
Dallas Goedert TE 50 22% 4 2 16 0
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside WR 135 58% 7 2 14 0
Total 232 Team 123 75 827 6

Tight End

Week 3 was a major disappointment as Zach Ertz saw just seven targets even with Alshon Jeffrey and DeSean Jackson out, though it was just over 20% of the 36 pass attempts. He is still very much in play, even if Jeffrey returns to action as Jackson is still out. Dallas Goedert has just four targets in his two games played and is a wildcard at best.

Defense/Special Teams

Though three games, the Eagles have only two sacks. The only team that is worse is the Denver Broncos who do not have one yet. Green Bay has allowed seven which is in the middle of the pack (no pun intended). Philadelphia has three interceptions, but Aaron Rodgers has none so far. We are hoping to catch lightening in a bottle if we roll with this unit.

Green Bay Packers 25.0 implied points

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers checks in as a QB8-10 in most of the popular projection systems for this week. He has not had to carry the team as in prior years and has just 647 yards and four touchdowns over his first three outings. The Eagles have a bottom ten passing DVOA and the second lowest Adjusted Sack Rate per Football Outsiders. This is a fantastic matchup for Rodgers who is no stranger to prime time games.

Running Back

The workload split came back to even in a hurry last week and Jamaal Williams is clearly more than Aaron Jones’ backup.

Jones Week 1 Week 3 Week 3
Snaps 38 / 59% 43 / 58% 35 / 61%
Rushing 13/39/0 23/116/1 10/19/2
Receiving 1t – 1/0/0 6t – 4/34/0 1t – 0/0/0
Williams Week 1 Week 3 Week 3
Snaps 26 / 41% 35 / 47% 35 / 61%
Rushing 5/0/0 9/28/0 12/59/0
Receiving 2t – 2/15/0 4t – 3/13/1 2t – 2/27/0

While the Eagles have been in the bottom third of the league for fantasy points allowed to running backs, there is available fantasy production for Green Bay.

Wide Receiver

Clearly we have a two man show among the Packers wide receivers. It is no surprise that Davante Adams is leading the team as he was a top three wide receiver by most metrics last year. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a nice rapport with his quarterback, but damn if he isn’t at least mirroring the statistical output of Adams.

Player

Snaps Snap % Trgts Recpt Rec Yds TDs
Davante Adams WR 185 95% 21 15 198 0
M. Valdes-Scantling WR 157 81% 21 13 170 1
Jamaal Williams RB 96 49% 8 7 55 1
Aaron Jones RB 103 53% 8 6 38 0
Marcedes Lewis TE 96 49% 6 3 33 0
Robert Tonyan TE 59 30% 4 2 32 0
Jimmy Graham TE 113 58% 7 3 30 1
Trevor Davis WR 23 12% 1 1 28 0
Danny Vitale FB 38 19% 1 1 27 0
Geronimo Allison WR 92 47% 7 5 24 1
Jake Kumerow WR 7 4% 1 1 12 0
Total 195 Team 93 57 647 4

The Eagles have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in both half and full-PPR.

Tight Ends

As you can see from the chart above, Rodgers is not playing favorites with his tight ends. This puts all of them in play with Philadelphia allowing 7.0 targets for 4.3/44.7 with one total touchdown.

Defense/Special Teams

The Pack Attack is very much in play under the lights of Lambeau Field on Thursday Night Football. Most projection systems have them as the D/ST3-5 on the full-slate. They are third in the league with a dozen sacks and four interceptions.

Strategy: FanDuel is actually interesting this week, you will have $8,250 for your last two spots if you begin with Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz and Davante Adams. That makes for some very tricky choices. On DraftKings depending on your choice for Captain, the same trio will leave you with between $4,233 and $4,400 for the second half of your roster.

Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)

Top 10

  1. Aaron Rodgers: while he team has not needed him to be a super hero, the matchup against the porous Philly secondary is enticing enough to put Rodgers on top.
  2. Davante Adams: on DraftKings it is looking like the Packers duo is going to be very close in terms of the Captain popularity.
  3. Carson Wentz: we know he is going have a hand in darn near every Eagles score, the question is how many will their be against this stout Green Bay defense.
  4. Marquez Valdes-Scantling: the similar production and opportunity as compared to Davante Adams was startling and this is a nice DraftKings price. I would drop him three spots on FanDuel.
  5. Jamaal Williams: for the discount, I am willing to put him above Aaron Jones.
  6. Zach Ertz: even with the return of Alshon Jeffrey, he should still be one of Wentz’s go to guys.
  7. Alshon Jeffrey: it looks like his projected popularity is going to be low as a result of him sitting out last week and missing most of Week 2. A game theory gambit in my opinion.
  8. Aaron Jones: why does it seem that the organization hates when he succeeds?
  9. Mason Crosby and Jake Elliott: the veteran Crosby is my preference unless I need the slight savings to use elsewhere by going with Elliott.
  10. Nelson Agholor: it sounds like Jeffrey is fully healthy and we are not getting much of a discount here. Similar to his counterpart, this is a direct leverage play against The Masses. It is risky, but really what isn’t when it comes to NFL variance?

Secondary Options

  1. Green Bay D/ST: I definitely want to be a believer.
  2. Miles Sanders: this is too much of a committee to trust any of the Philly running backs outside of multi-entry scenarios. He also returns kickoffs.
  3. Mack Hollins: DraftKings only where the full-PPR and lower price point give him a fighting chance.
  4. Darren Sproles: it was odd that he was not used more in Week 2 when all of the receivers were dinged up. He returns punts and is no stranger to high leverage situations. Keep in mind he is 36-years old and this is his fourteenth season. How many of you remember where he started his career in the league?
  5. Jordan Howard: price and shared role have him third for me among the backfield options on his team for both sites.

Lottery Tickets

  1. Green Bay Tight Ends: look at the chart in the receivers section and tell me you have an idea of who is going to be in line for the looks?
  2. Geronimo Allison: he is cheap, works in the slot and… well that is all I got.
  3. Philadelphia D/ST: remember, just two sacks this season and Rodgers takes care of the ball.
  4. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside: only has value with an in-game injury to one of the other receivers.
  5. Dallas Goedert: was in on only nine snaps last week, keep an eye on his status. Hard to even go here with 100 lineups in my opinion.
  6. Jake Kumerow: limited in practice, only has value on DraftKings and even then it is to facilitate a stacked roster in the other slots.
  7. Darrius Shepherd: will return punts and potentially kickoffs. Trevor Davis was traded to Oakland to be their return man.
  8. Danny Vitale: time to go get some scratch off tickets.

As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.

Good Luck Gamers! ~ EMac

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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