Greetings Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all your daily fantasy needs. Let’s dig into some MNF NFL DFS Picks for your Showdown slate tonight between the Steelers and Dolphins.
Tune into NFL Monday Night Showdown Picks on Tonight at 7:30pm ET as Your Ol’ Pal EMac and Nolan Kelly break down Monday’s game for Showdown formats.
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Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers -14.0 / 43.5
A team that is unabashedly tanking and a team starting a rookie quarterback.
Miami Dolphins 14.75 implied points
Quarterback
Things are looking up with the Dolphins getting 14.75 implied points. That is just over a field goal more than what they have actually produced per game this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick is under center once again with Josh Rosen relegated to clipboard duty. It won’t make that much of a difference, but at least there is a chance that Miami can move the ball.
Running Back
It should not be a surprise that Kenyan Drake was traded as he did not make the trip with the team. That means we should see Mark Walton and Kalen Ballage getting most of the work. Remember back during the preseason when Ballage was reportedly getting the work over Drake? Oh how long ago that seems now.
Hopefully you were able to tune into Live Before Lock last night and get Walton onto your Sunday/Monday Prime Time lineups as he is not going to surprise anyone building rosters today. He was a fourth-rounder out of Miami who was selected by the Bengals in 2018, but he saw just 19 touches in 14 games.
For his price tag and workload, it is almost like our lineups should be preloaded with him today. That, of course, makes Ballage interesting as a pivot because anything can happen in an NFL game.
Wide Receiver
Things are going to be tough for the passing game as Pittsburgh has the third-best adjusted sack rate this season. They have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers over their last four games and nobody has topped 100 yards receiving.
Preston Williams is the most intriguing option as the leadership still seems to hate DeVante Parker. Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson are healthy, but they will need to luck into a touchdown to have any impact on tonight’s action.
[table id=1291 /]
Tight End
Mike Gesicki is not particularly inspiring and last Week’s four receptions for 41 yards was arguably his best outing of the year.
Defense/Special Teams
Despite a quarterback carousel, Pittsburgh has allowed just five sacks, five interceptions and three fumbles.
Pittsburgh Steelers 28.75 implied points
Quarterback
For some perspective, rookie Mason Rudolph actually checks in as the QB15-20 in most projection systems. He threw for two scores in three of his four games and at least this should be a cake matchup. Miami has the lowest DVOA against the run, pass and overall. They are also allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers this season.
Unless Jaylen Samuels is healthy and taking wildcat snaps, it would seem like Rudolph should approach 250 passing yards.
Running Back
Jaylen Samuels is a game time decision, though it would seem unlikely that Pittsburgh pushes him back unless he is truly ready. James Conner is lining up to be the most popular option of the night with good reason. He contributes in all facets of the game and the Fins are b-a-d BAD on defense. #Analysis
Wide Receiver
If JuJu Smith-Schuster is double-teamed by two bad defensive backs, will it even matter? It would be a stretch to pencil him in for 100 yards, but he should at least be a threat for five receptions and 70 yards. Plus, he can score from anywhere on the field. Diontae Johnson is the next viable option and Ryan Switzer is a complete wildcard.
[table id=1292 /]
Tight End
Vance McDonald is healthy and will be the TE1 with Nick Vannett around if anything should befall him.
Defense/Special Teams
Shout out to the Miami offensive line; last week, they allowed just one sack. That was their first game with fewer than three and they came in with 23 sacks allowed in five games. They are also allowing two turnovers per game, so the Steel Curtain is a live option.
Monday NFL DFS Strategy
The core build on both DraftKings and FanDuel is going to be centered around Conner. DraftKings did a good job pricing him up and it is tricky to use him as the Captain. FanDuel does not have the 1.5x salary premium and while he is the most expensive option, there is more wiggle room.
Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)
Notable Inactives: Jaylen Samuels, Paxton Lynch, Zach Gentry, Isaiah Ford
NFL DFS Top 10
- James Conner: as mentioned in the strategy section above, he is appropriately priced tonight.
- Matt Walton: a better deal on DraftKings, but fully doable on FanDuel. He should be Miami’s top scorer.
- Mason Rudolph: this will be his easiest matchup all season. He will be in contention as the top overall scorer tonight.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick: similar to the strategy with Matt Moore last night, this consolidates all of the aerial production.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: from a talent and game-breaking perspective, he goes right here. Harder to work him in with Conner, but not impossible.
- Preston Williams: seems to be the best all-around receiving option for the Dolphins. Also returns punts.
Jaylen Samuels: if he is playing, we should assume full health.- Pittsburgh D/ST: before you ask, yes, you can use them in the Captain/MVP slot.
- Chris Boswell: he should get several attempts, let’s hope a few are field goals and not just PATs.
- Kalen Ballage: dramatic salary relief on DraftKings, adequately priced on FanDuel for his mediocre involvement. That could change on a dime though.
NFL DFS Secondary Plays
- DeVante Parker: one would think he makes a fine trade chip and the Miami leadership loathes him, yet here we are…
- Jason Sanders: Miami’s rookie kicker, Heinz Field can be a tricky place for field goals.
- Diontae Johnson: he is the WR2 in a system that no longer rewards one.
- Vance McDonald: we need a touchdown for him to be relevant, Rudolph does not give him the same volume as Ben Roethlisberger.
- Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns: it just takes one long pass to pay off.
- Miami D/ST: keep in mind that the most you can lose for points allowed is four DraftKings points.
NFL DFS Lottery Tickets
- Benny Snell: if Jaylen Samuels is out, move him up to the top of the Secondary Plays section.
- Diontae Johnson:
- Mike Gesicki: 55 yards would be a high water mark for the season.
- Nick Vannett: will be on the field, but needs something to befall Vance McDonald.
- Ryan Switzer: gets a target now and then, returns punts and kickoffs.
- Johnny Holton: five targets on the year. Returns kickoffs.
- Jakeem Grant, Nick O’Leary, Durham Smythe, Isaiah Ford: some may be inactive, but the best strategy would be to just buy a lottery ticket.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions.
Good Luck NFL DFS Gamers! ~ EMac
