Week 11 of the NFL is here, and Awesemo has a ton of great tools and NFL DFS rankings to tackle all the largest contests in DFS. This article will go through and highlight some of the week’s highest-projected Yahoo NFL picks at each position on the Week 11 main slate, all based on Awesemo’s projections and models. It will also provide insight into rostership projections and provide some other matchup information for optimal Yahoo NFL picks for daily fantasy lineups each week.
Week 11 Yahoo NFL Picks, Grades & Values
Top Graded QB: Jalen Hurts | Grades: A, Values: B
There doesn’t seem to be a ton of heat forming for Jalen Hurts this week as the perception seems to be that he has a tough matchup against the Saints. New Orleans has allowed seven passing touchdowns in its last three games though and have allowed over 300 passing yards in three of its five games as well. Hurts is still running with the ferocity he did early in the year, he just hasn’t found the end zone in three games. He has also been hampered by the Eagles better play on defense, which has led to lower pass attempts. The projections here have Hurts rated strong with the fourth-best points projection at quarterback and the best value score of anyone above $30 in price at the position. He’s setting up as a great pivot play this week in big field GPPs.
Top Value QB: Cam Newton | Grades: B, Values: A
The Carolina Panthers are -3.5 favorites this week, and even though they don’t have a huge implied point projection (23.25) they take on the Washington Football Team, who has allowed the most fantasy points to the quarterback position this year, by a longshot. Cam Newton is set to get the start for Carolina this week and rates out as a terrific value given that he has the highest-projected point total at quarterback of anyone under $30 this week on Yahoo. Newton ran the ball four times last week on just nine snaps, so we already know the Panthers plan here (run Newton). He’s a heady value but may go completely overlooked by the field in this spot.
Top Graded RB: Nick Chubb | Grades: B, Values: C
The Browns will be getting Nick Chubb back in the lineup this week after he was cleared form COVID protocols on Friday. It’s the perfect comeback spot for Chubb, too, as the Browns walk into this game with the Lions as 12.5-point favorites and with a 27.5 implied team total. Considering Cleveland is still without Kareem Hunt, and the fact it is facing the Lions, this should be a spot where Chubb pushes for 20-plus carries while also potentially grabbing some work as a receiver. The matchup with Detroit is going to draw a lot of DFS eyes on Chubb, but he rates out with the second-best projected point total on the main slate this week and is $8 cheaper than Christian McCaffery, making him a high-end target to pay-up for in Week 11.
Top Value RB: A.J. Dillon | Grades: B, Values: A
The Packers A.J. Dillon is set to get his spotlight game for fantasy purposes in Week 11 as he’ll have the entire backfield to himself with Aaron Jones ruled out. Dillon had already seen his usage start to rise and has produced 4.9 yards per carry or better in three of his last five games. Dillon has also shown big upside in the pass game where he has converted the last six of his targets into catches and averaged 17.66 yards on those catches. The Vikings can be had on the ground as well, as they’ve allowed 4.7 yards per carry against, the third-worst mark in the league. Dillon’s going to be popular but he rates out as a top-eight play at running back in the projections and has the best value score at his position by a longshot this week.
Dillon will be wildly popular all over the DFS sites, but he still remains one of the best plays, which Billy Ward elaborated on in his Must Play NFL DFS Low-Priced Value Plays for Week 11.
Top Graded WR: Stefon Diggs | Grades: A, Values: C
Indianapolis has allowed the most receiving touchdowns and sixth-most receptions to opposing wide-outs this year. Teams are also throwing for 7.3 yards per pass attempt against Indianapolis, which is the ninth-worst mark in the league. It all speaks to how good spot this is for Stefon Diggs to potentially go off again, after he posted an eight catch, 163 yards and a touchdown game against the Jets last week. This may feel like chasing points, but the Bills remain sixth in pass attempts per game and Diggs rates out fourth among all wide receivers in the Awesemo projections for Week 11 — and also has a solid value rating at under $30. Pay up again for a main cog in the Bills’ offense.
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Top Value WR: Jaylen Waddle | Grades: B, Values: A
The Dolphins get the pleasure of taking on the Jets this week, a team that allowed 366 passing yards to the Bills last week. Miami is down to just Jaylen Waddle and Albert Wilson at wide receiver right now, so the target share for Waddle remains one of the most secure in the league. He’s averaging less than 10 yards per catch but, as mentioned above, the Jets are all about allowing big plays in the secondary. Waddle’s value score on Awesemo is the best among all players ranked above $15 on Yahoo this week and he’s ahead of several big names in the pure points projections. He’s superb value here at just $16.
Top Graded TE: Mike Gesicki | Grades: A, Values: C
One of the boldest calls of the week from the projections definitely comes at tight end where the model has Mike Gesicki — he of the seven targets and zero catches last week — as the fourth-highest projected play at his position. We have to look long-term with Gesicki though, and when we do, we have to love the sub-5% rostership projection. Gesicki has averaged over seven targets a game this year and has proven upside, having totaled over 13 Yahoo points in four games this year. The Jets have been dead last in yards per pass attempt against in their last three games and are a group to pick on here with the Dolphins low-rostered receivers. Gesicki is a bold call, but one that could pay big dividends in GPPs here.
Top Value TE: Dallas Goedert | Grades: B, Values: B
Philadelphia faces a New Orleans defense this week, and opponents have averaged over 36 pass attempts per game the Saints thus far. The Saints have progressively morphed into one of the leagues biggest pass-funnel defenses over the last month, so it’s as good spot as any for Dallas Goedert to come alive again, after going for just five catches in his last two games. Goedert (concussion) looks on track to play this week and is still playing nearly every snap — and running a ton of routes — for the Eagles who should be passing more in this spot. He rates out with the second best value score at tight end this week.
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