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Yahoo Daily Fantasy: NFL Week 4 Preview, Pricing & Value Plays

Geoff Ulrich

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Week 4 of the NFL is here, and Awesemo has a ton of great tools and NFL DFS strategy to help you tackle all the largest contests in DFS. This article will give you some first impressions of the slate, including some of the top matchups and value plays. We will discuss the pricing and who sticks out at various tiers for Yahoo daily fantasy NFL picks this week.

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There are a lot of players who are either very low in sentiment after a couple of slow weeks (and with low prices) or in markedly better situations due to injury issues to teammates. A.J. Brown and Tyler Lockett are banged up, and injuries to Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster could open some Pittsburgh value if both miss.

Yahoo Daily Fantasy: Week 4 NFL First Look & Value Plays

QB Josh Allen — $34

Josh Allen is coming off a monster Week 3 in which he threw for four touchdowns and also ran one in. Now he heads into a matchup with Houston this week as a -15.5 favorite. The Bills have a 31.75 implied total, and while the tendency may be to fade the blowout win, Buffalo is passing more than all but three teams in the league right now. Allen is too cheap in a game that should produce another monster stat line for him.

QB Russell Wilson — $34

It has not been a great two weeks for the Seahawks. Russell Wilson is coming off a poor game against Minnesota in which he could not take advantage of a weak Vikings secondary, and his 16.62 points on Yahoo last week was his lowest of the season. His output has a chance for a big spike in Week 4, though, as the 49ers have been great opponents for opposing quarterbacks and are dealing with multiple injuries at key positions. Wilson’s salary has not dipped much on Yahoo, but this game has a close point spread and a 52.5 over/under as of writing. There could be low ownership here in a great fantasy spot.

QB Jalen Hurts — $32

Jalen Hurts has had a couple of tough games in a row, as he has completed under 60% of his passes the last two weeks and turned it over three times against Dallas. However, Hurts has been an excellent garbage-time producer for fantasy purposes. And this week Kansas City should be able to move the ball at ease against the Philadelphia defense and create a lot of opportunities for Hurts to rack up yards with his legs. Kansas City has given up the second-most fantasy points per game and the most yards rushing to opposing quarterbacks this season.

QB Sam Darnold — $25

This could be the week to start trusting Sam Darnold, as he has a cheap price tag and a good fantasy matchup against Dallas. Even with the Cowboys defense playing one of its best games, Hurts was still able to produce over 20 points against them. Darnold is setting career highs in most categories and is averaging 8.3 yards per throw, which is 11th best in the league. Dallas has yielded the second-most yards passing, making this a great pay-down spot.

RB Derrick Henry — $41

The Titans enter this week as 7.5-point road favorites over the Jets, who have been abysmal in pretty much every phase this year. Derrick Henry followed up his monster week against Seattle with a solid effort, going for 113 yards rushing and three receptions. He seems likely to get huge volume again here, especially now that A.J. Brown has been labeled week-to-week. The difference here could be that, with Tennessee sitting with a 26.75 implied team total, Henry finds the end zone at least once after going scoreless against the Colts. Even at $6 more than last week, Henry feels like a certainty to go off in this spot given the spread.

RB Jonathan Taylor — $28

Jonathan Taylor had himself a solid day against Tennessee last week but had his carries limited at the end, as the Colts chose to give more no-huddle snaps to Nyheim Hines when they were behind late. Taylor averaged 6.4 yards per carry last week and remains an elite early-down back despite the lack of fantasy production. This is a close point spread this week, though, between Miami and the Colts (Miami -1.5), and the Dolphins defense just gave up over 100 yards to Peyton Barber. Taylor is an interesting GPP play this week, especially with his salary staying flat despite his lack of touchdowns.

RB Najee Harris — $21

With the Steelers hurting at wide receiver, Najee Harris ended up having a monster day as a receiver for Pittsburgh in Week 3. He was targeted 19 times (second most ever for a running back), as both Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster ended up missing the game. Despite the usage and matchup with Green Bay this week, Harris’ price tag has barely moved, as he is only $2 more expensive than last week. Considering Green Bay has given up over 27 points against per game, expect Harris to be massive chalk this week in Yahoo’s large DFS contests.

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WR Tyreek Hill — $30

Tyreek Hill put up his second slow game in a row last week, going for just five catches on seven targets for 56 yards. His target share going down after seeing 15 in Week 1 is annoying, but there is little doubt that the Chiefs will likely rectify this problem against the Eagles. Philadelphia has defended wide receivers extremely well this year, but teams are also having success running the ball against them. Kansas City does not run as much as most teams, so do not be shocked if Hill changes that trend. He is the most explosive wide receiver in the league and is $3 less than last week in a better matchup, so it is best to take advantage, especially if he gets talked down because of his recent downturn.

WR D.K. Metcalf — $28

D.K. Metcalf had his best day of the season for fantasy purposes in Week 3, going for 107 yards on six receptions (nine targets). Seattle still refuses to unleash Wilson for 40-plus throws a game, but with Tyler Lockett banged up, it might not matter much for Week 4. Metcalf would be a massive play against San Francisco if Lockett were to miss, as the 49ers are already down their best cornerback in Jason Verrett and were destroyed by another physical wide receiver in Davante Adams last week. Even if Lockett plays, this price on Metcalf is enticing, as the game total is 52.5 as of writing.

WR Deebo Samuel — $22

Sticking with the same game, the price here for Deebo Samuel is something to take advantage of. Despite having a slow day against Green Bay, Samuel still led the team in targets with 10. Seattle does not have the talent on the back end to slow down Samuel, and they are projected for a 27.5 total. Samuel is now averaging 10 targets per game and a career-best 16.7 yards per catch, but his price has not moved at all. He might be the bargain of the week at any position on Yahoo for Week 4.

WR Chase Claypool — $19

Chase Claypool benefited from being the lone healthy member of the Steelers’ three primary wideouts in Week 3, as he took in a career-high nine catches on 15 targets. Claypool has been targeted 24 times over the last two games, as the Steelers’ pathetic running game is only averaging 3.2 yards per carry, last in the NFL. Claypool may have a tough matchup if he is shadowed by Jaire Alexander, but he is going to see the ball a ton if either Smith-Schuster or Johnson misses another game.

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TE T.J. Hockenson — $21

T.J. Hockenson was one of Week 3’s worst busts. He had a great matchup, but the game flow ended up favoring a slower gameplan from the Lions, who only threw 30 times last week. Despite only taking in two receptions, Hockenson is still averaging 7.5 targets per game through three weeks, which is solid for any tight end not named Darren Waller or Travis Kelce. It is possible Detroit will have another ugly game against Chicago this week, but Hockenson’s price tag has also dipped by $3 off of last week’s price, making him an interesting buy-low candidate.

TE Mike Gesicki — $13

After a miserable start to the year in which he only saw seven targets through the first two games, in Week 4 Mike Gesicki returned to his form from the end of last season. He was targeted 12 times in Week 3 by Jacoby Brissett and also played a season high in snaps (over 65%). Game flow contributed to Gesicki’s big Week 3 somewhat, but Indianapolis has struggled to defend the pass this season and has allowed an 85% completion rate to his position. Gesicki is a name of interest if punting on the position.


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If you’re interested in other DFS NFL advice for multiple game slates, head over to NFL ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, DFS NFL rankings, and NFL DFS stacking. Take a look at our depth charts for NFL games, NFL lineups and inactive player list.
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