It is already Week 5 of the NFL, as the quarter-mark of the season is officially here. Awesemo has a ton of great tools and NFL DFS strategy to help you tackle all the largest contests in DFS. This article will give you some first impressions of the upcoming slate, including some of the top matchups and value plays. We will discuss the pricing and who sticks out at various tiers for Yahoo daily fantasy NFL picks this week.
As of now, there are a couple of different injury situations to monitor. David Montgomery being out could create a big opportunity for Damien Williams. There are also impact players like Julio Jones, A.J. Brown, Chase Claypool and Teddy Bridgewater (concussion protocol) to watch, as they all set up as being late-week question marks in terms of their availability.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy: Week 4 NFL First Look & Value Plays
QB Kyler Murray — $41
Kyler Murray moved to the front of the MVP race last week with another sterling performance in the Cardinals’ shock beat down of the Rams. Murray has completed 75% of his passes on the year and is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt, a massive 2.5 increase over his career average over the last two seasons. The fantasy outlook for Week 5 for Murray looks rosy. San Francisco enters having allowed the fifth-most yards rushing to opposing quarterbacks and fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Murray is pricey up here, but with no Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen on the main slate, he is worth paying up for.
QB Sam Darnold — $29
Sam Darnold took a small step back from a performance perspective last week, as he completed 66% of his passes and threw two interceptions in the Panthers loss to Dallas. Darnold probably benefited from the Panthers being down big, and fantasy owners were more than pleased that he added two touchdowns rushing in the mostly garbage-time effort. The good news here is that Darnold gets another weak NFC East opponent to beat up on in Week 5. The Eagles defense has cooled off after a hot start and has allowed an 80% completion rate, eight touchdowns and one interception to opposing quarterbacks over the last two weeks. Darnold’s price may have risen a bit, but he is still cheap enough to consider here in a great fantasy matchup.
QB Daniel Jones — $25
Daniel Jones is coming into Week 5 off a monster day against the Saints. New Orleans had ranked as one of the best pass defenses in the league before meeting Jones, who completed 70% of his passes and averaged over 10 yards per attempt. Jones has been a fantasy goldmine for those who have paid down to use him in DFS, as he comes in having rushed for at least 27 yards in each of his first four games (and has two touchdowns rushing). He has a fantastic matchup in Week 5 against Dallas, who has given up the most yards passing this season. Expect him to be popular, but Jones remains a screaming value at this price level.
QB Trey Lance — $23
Trey Lance could cut into Jones’ ownership a bit in Week 5. He looks destined to get his first official start in the NFL against Arizona after Jimmy Garoppolo went down with injury early in last week’s loss to Seattle. Lance only completed 50% of his throws in that game, but he settled down quickly, game throwing for two touchdowns and rushing for 41 yards. He would be a fantastic upside play at just $23 against Arizona (who are 5.5-point favorites), as it is likely the 49ers will be down big late in this game given how efficient the Cardinals have been on offense.
RB Ezekiel Elliott– $32
Ezekiel Elliott had his second strong game in a row, going for over 100 yards on the ground against what was supposed to be an elite Carolina rush defense. Elliott’s 7.15 yards per carry were impressive, and he gets another soft front to beat up on in Week 5 against the Giants. New York has allowed 4.5 yards per carry (ninth worst in the league), and the Cowboys’ 29.5 implied team total is the biggest on the Sunday main slate. Elliott still shares some red-zone work with Tony Pollard, but in this matchup the few lost opportunities may not matter. His price here looks more than palatable given the opponent and the way he is playing.
RB Saquon Barkley — $23
Saquon Barkley had a breakout game last week against the Saints, going for two touchdowns (one through the air and one on the ground). Barkley managed over 4 yards per attempt against a tough Saints front and looked as explosive as ever on a long touchdown catch and run late in the game. His usage as a receiver was encouraging too, as he took in six catches on seven targets and could be used more in this role for this week. Dallas has allowed the most catches to opposing running backs in 2021. Barkley’s price does not look like it has factored in the matchup, the 52-point over/under or the two suspect defenses in play. Take advantage, as Barkley’s price is likely one more big game away from skyrocketing.
RB Damien Harris — $19
Damien Harris is in an absolute dream matchup here against a Houston team that allowed 40 points last week. The Patriots defense should be setting Harris up for a ton of work both early and late in this game, and Harris ended up seeing 61% of the offensive snaps last week (his biggest share of the season) in the Patriots first game without James White. Harris has faced some tough defenses of late but should bounce back here against a Houston team that has ceded 4.5 yards per carry and is incapable of doing anything on offense. He may push for 25 carries in this game and looks underpriced given his touchdown equity in this spot.
WR Justin Jefferson — $32
Justin Jefferson has displayed the playmaking and usage over the last three games that made him an early-round target in season-long drafts this year. He has scored touchdowns in three straight games and has seen his target share bump up to the point where he is averaging well over nine targets a game. Jefferson’s price has come up, but with Dalvin Cook hurting, the matchup here is too enticing to fade. Detroit has allowed the most yards per pass attempt in the league (9.8), while Minnesota comes into this game as 7.5-point favorites and with the third-highest implied team total on the slate at 28.25. Jefferson should be high on the list of studs to pay up for in Week 5.
WR Deebo Samuel — $28
Deebo Samuel blitzed the Seahawks secondary for 156 yards and a touchdown on eight receptions and has averaged 17.5 yards per catch and leads the league in yards after the catch. He is an elite wide receiver who is being targeted at one of the highest rates in the NFL yet is priced below the other elite wide receivers every week. Week 5 is no different. There could be a learning curve with a new quarterback, but Samuel and Lance already connected for a long touchdown in Week 4, and Lance looks likely to be throwing downfield more based off his Week 4 performance. Until there is a significant change or the quarterback play takes a huge dip, keep taking the lower prices on Samuel going forward.
WR D.J. Moore — $20
Speaking of wide receivers who are priced too low, what does D.J. Moore have to do to get some respect? He went for another two touchdowns in Week 4 and landed himself another 100-yard day off of eight catches. Despite being among the league leaders in targets and having three touchdowns on the season, Moore’s DFS price on Yahoo did not come up at all this week, which will make him a lightning rod for ownership. He is also playing the Eagles, who allowed Tyreek Hill to score three touchdowns against them last week. Moore is a great play, but expect there to be more lineups with him than without him in the large-field GPPs.
WR Kenny Golladay — $18
Kenny Golladay had a breakout game against the Saints last week, going for 116 yards on just six catches. His after-catch rate was vintage Golladay, who was a master at making big catches downfield for Detroit. Jones has looked more comfortable throwing downfield of late as well, and the two get a Dallas secondary in Week 5 that has allowed the fifth-most yards receiving and six touchdowns to opposing wide receivers already. Even if the Giants get some bodies back, Golladay is set for another big game here and looks like a near-mint value at under $20.
TE George Kittle– $21
George Kittle could only bring in four of his 11 targets last week and remains without a score on the year. It has been a frustrating start for fantasy purposes. The usage here is what people should be focusing on, though, as Kittle took a 27% share of the targets last week and just missed converting on a late score (which likely would have boosted his sentiment and Yahoo price). He remains the clear No. 2 option for the 49ers, with better targeting than most teams’ main pass-catching tight ends. The price here is more than fair in what should be an up-tempo game.
TE Mike Gesicki– $16
Mike Gesicki was our value call here last week, and he again performed, recording over 50 yards and touchdown against the Colts. Gesicki has seen 24 targets over his last three games while playing with Jacoby Brissett. The strong connection should not be discounted, as Brissett has been much more apt to target the short/intermediate routes, which Gesicki typically runs. The price has barely risen for Week 5, and the matchup here is great too, as Tampa has allowed the second-most receptions to opposing tight ends and three touchdowns to the position already.
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