Awesemo has a ton of great tools and NFL DFS strategy to help tackle all the largest contests for Week 11 NFL DFS. This Yahoo Daily Fantasy article will walk through some of the standouts in the early Awesemo rostership projections. It will look at who is projected to be highly rostered, who makes for good chalk plays, which highly rostered players may be worth fading and who the low-rostered pivots are in large-field tournaments. With that said, let’s get into the Yahoo daily fantasy NFL picks for Week 11.
Week 11 Yahoo Daily Fantasy NFL Picks & Rostership
Awesemo has some of the best rostership projections on the planet for NFL DFS. If playing in large-field GPPs every week, then using rostership projections can bring a massive edge by knowing where the good pivot and leverage spots will be.
Good Chalk: Patrick Mahomes (Yahoo Projected 19.1% Rostered )
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have a solid 29 implied team total which puts them atop the slate. People seem apt to jump back on Mahomes this week as he is close to breaking 20% in the early rostership projections. Still, even in a semi-down year he has managed to put up six games with 24 or more Yahoo points. He ranks third in points projection among the quarterbacks on the main slate this week but has the best value score among the top three. At $37 it is likely an OK spot to eat some chalk.
Chalk to Fade: Ryan Tannehill (Yahoo Projected 10.1% Rostered)
Ryan Tannehill has a great matchup on paper as he gets the Texans in Week 11, who have allowed the most yards per pass attempt against this season. Tannehill has thrown less than 30 times in five of his last six games though and his totals the last couple of weeks have been saved by some short-yardage touchdown rushes, which could dry up any week. He is only projected as the 11th-highest quarterback in the Yahoo projections this week on Awesemo and the matchup against a weak Houston team — who teams only throw 33 times per game against — may cause low passing totals again.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Cam Newton (Yahoo Projected 2.8% Rostered)
Cam Newton looks likely to start for the Panthers this week and does not have much positive sentiment on him at the moment with an under 5% roster projection. That number is likely to go up as the week progresses, but the matchup suggests the sentiment on Newton may not be high enough. The Football Team has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this year and are without its best defensive player. Newton took four rushes last week in very limited snaps and all things point to big rushing usage again.
Good Chalk: A.J. Dillon (Yahoo Projected 40.4% Rostered)
A.J. Dillon is going to have the Green Bay backfield to himself this week with Aaron Jones (knee) banged up. He has started to flash more and more upside of late having gone for over 4.9 yards per carry in three of his last five games. he has also converted each of his last six targets into catches for 106 yards. The Vikings are not a great rush defense (second worst in yards per rush attempt against) and Dillon is ultra-affordable at $20. He is going to be popular, but D’Ernest Johnson produced in a similar spot last week and it feels like Dillon likely makes it two weeks in a row for the uber chalk.
Dillon will, no doubt, be one of the most popular options on the entire Week 11 slate, but will rostering him be worth it? Check out where Dillon grades out in the Awesemo rankings in the Week 11 From the Slot article for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup advice.
Chalk to Fade: Josh Jacobs (Yahoo Projected 23.4% Rostered)
Josh Jacobs is appealing due to his low price tag but he was cheap last week and took just seven rushes. He is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and has only been saved for fantasy purposes by the fact he has taken in four or more catches in two straight games. Those catches could dry up at any point though and the Bengals have allowed just 4.2 yards per rush against — 13th best in the league. Jacobs just has not enough upside to warrant this kind of rostership.
Low-Rostered Pivot: D’Onta Foreman (Yahoo Projected 2.4% Rostered)
D’Onta Foreman is just $14 and offers exposure to the running back who led the Titans backfield in touches last week and is playing on a team with a 27.50 implied team total. Houston has allowed six touchdowns to running backs over their last four games and Foreman showed the most juice as a receiver last week too with two catches for 48 yards. He is in a great spot for 12-plus touches against his former team and will not be heavily rostered at all.
Good Chalk: Stefon Diggs (Yahoo Projected 20.4% Rostered)
Stefon Diggs went under-rostered last week but is trending well this week, and likely to be one of the popular plays on the main slate on Yahoo. Diggs had a slower start to the season but has scored touchdowns in three of his last four games and saw a season-high 13 targets in a blowout win vs. the Jets. At under $30 in price — and going up against a Colts team who has given up the most touchdowns to the position — Diggs will be popular, but that should not deter from targeting him in one of the best matchups possible for his position.
Chalk to Fade: Tee Higgins (Yahoo Projected 19.2% Rostered)
Tee Higgins is gaining steam as a play on Yahoo this week, and it is mainly due to his insanely low $15 salary. He has taken a clear backseat to Ja’Marr Chase in terms of usage and production but has averaged over nine targets in his last three games. The issue with Higgins is that there are multiple names on the Bengals beside Chase (Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd) who could also steal work. With Chase also projecting for well under 10% rostership, the leverage this week will be had in fading Higgins and looking to the Bengals less popular skill players — who all have as good or better chance of breaking out against a crumbling Raiders defense.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Tyler Lockett (Yahoo Projected 7.2% Rostered)
The Seahawks offense was abysmal last week against the Packers, but overacting to one week can lead to trouble. Lockett has a history of massive games with Russell Wilson at quarterback and went for an incredible 24 catches and four touchdowns in just two games against Arizona last year. He is trending just fine as the 12th best wide receiver in the projections for Week 11 and, at a well under 10% rostership projection, is very worthy as a GPP target.
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Good Chalk: Travis Kelce (Yahoo Projected 17.8% Rostered)
With Mahomes at quarterback, it is certainly not a bad idea to target some of his top weapons either. Travis Kelce is trending at under 20% rostership in a game with a 56.5 over/under. Kelce had one of his best games of the season last week (119 yards on eight catches) and was getting open more frequently than he had in past weeks. His versatility should give Dallas’ defense trouble and, with his salary sitting at $30 flat, likely has a chance even come in under his projected rostership.
Chalk to Fade: Mark Andrews (Yahoo Projected 18.2% Rostered)
Mark Andrews has cooled off a touch of late and has not breeched 70 yards receiving in any of his last four games. He is still getting targeted a ton, but his upside remains a little more volatile than the other top tight ends. Andrews also faces a Bears team who has given up the fewest yards and second-fewest receptions to the tight end position this season. He is projecting with more rostership than Kelce who is in a much better overall spot and does not have the matchup concerns Andrews does.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Mike Gesicki (Yahoo Projected 0.8% Rostered)
If you want low rostership at tight end, just target a player who was projected for a good week but posted zero catches on seven targets. That is what Mike Gesicki did last week against the Ravens and he comes into this game with rostership projecting around 5% against the Jets. Gesicki is averaging 7.2 targets over his last five games though and is playing a Jets team who has allowed eight passing touchdowns over their last three games. Gesicki is a player who has posted 13 or more Yahoo points four times this season already and a great bounce-back candidate.
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