Awesemo has a ton of great tools and NFL DFS strategy to help tackle all the largest contests for Week 13 NFL DFS. This Yahoo Daily Fantasy article will walk through some of the standouts in the early Awesemo rostership projections. It will look at who is projected to be highly rostered, who makes for good chalk plays, which highly rostered players may be worth fading and who the low-rostered pivots are in large-field tournaments. With that said, let’s get into the Yahoo daily fantasy NFL picks for Week 13.
Week 13 Yahoo Daily Fantasy NFL Picks & Rostership
Awesemo has some of the best rostership projections on the planet for NFL DFS. If playing in large-field GPPs every week, then using rostership projections can bring a massive edge by knowing where the good pivot and leverage spots will be.
Good Chalk: Carson Wentz $23 (Yahoo Projected 16.0% Rostered)
The Colts have a fantastic matchup against the Texans this week, so do not be shocked that their offensive players are generating some heat. Indianapolis has a 27.5 implied team total as of writing in this game, and that should mean plenty of red-zone trips for Carson Wentz. Wentz has scored 20 or more Yahoo points in four of his last six and has also taken multiple carries in all six of those starts as well. He has the best value score in the Awesemo model at his position on the main slate and makes a good leverage play off the even more popular Jonathan Taylor.
Chalk to Fade: Jalen Hurts $36 (Yahoo Projected 17.9% Rostered)
This may be a time to get off the Jalen Hurts train for at least a stop or two. Hurts enters this week banged up and coming off after a terrible outing against the Giants where he threw three interceptions. The main concern, though, is not his play but his health (ankle), and any limitation on his running ability seriously devalues his stock. Despite the injury concern, he is projecting as the most rostered player this week. The Jets defense showed improved pressure last week too, which adds further concern to this play.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Justin Herbert $36 (Yahoo Projected 8.1% Rostered)
A good pivot off the popular Hurts would be to move to the Chargers – Bengals game, which has a 50.5 over/under as of writing. Justin Herbert has been very good for fantasy purposes of late and is throwing 39.9 times per game this year, third most in the NFL. The Bengals pass defense also has the second-most yards per attempt over the last three games. Herbert is a good upside option who is projecting for far less rostership than the top plays at quarterback.
Good Chalk: Joe Mixon $34 (Yahoo Projected 13.0% Rostered)
Joe Mixon is not likely to be the heavy chalk this week, but he is in play even if he hits 15%. Teams have run the ball 31 times per game against the Chargers, who have been bottom five in terms of yards per carry all season. Mixon is setting career highs in usage this year and has averaged 4.96 yards per carry on 58 attempts in his last two games. Mixon is projected as a top-five back this week but with less rostership than the very top plays.
Read more about Mixon in another Yahoo-centric NFL DFS articles, the Week 13 Yahoo First Look.
Chalk to Fade: Alexander Mattison $18 (Yahoo Projected 34.0% Rostered)
Alexander Mattison has a hit-or-miss record when filling for Dalvin Cook. He recorded over 20 Yahoo points in two games filling in for Cook earlier this year but posted bust games in similar spots the last two seasons as well. At under $20 and facing the Lions, Mattison is going to be a top-three-rostered player this week. The Lions have only allowed 4.1 yards per carry against over their last three games and are not necessarily a lock to give up high yardage. Mattison’s overall ability makes him a fine fade target in large fields based on what his rostership is projecting.
Mattison will be incredibly popular on almost every NFL DFS platform, but Matt Gajewski is banging the drum for him in his Week 13 NFL DFS DraftKings & FanDuel First Look.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Antonio Gibson $21 (Yahoo Projected 9.4% Rostered)
Antonio Gibson is coming off a 36-touch game where he also caught a season-high seven passes. The news is even better from the perspective that backfield mate J.D. McKissic (concussion) looks doubtful to play this week. Against a weaker Raiders rush defense, Gibson is in a great spot and not projecting for a ton of heat.
Good Chalk: Keenan Allen $25 (Yahoo Projected 22.0% Rostered)
The Chargers and Bengals play in a game with good offensive potential this week. The Bengals pass defense has regressed over the last three weeks, and they have been burned by some elite wide receivers already this year. Keenan Allen has seen double-digit targets in five straight games and is averaging 11.5 targets over that span. The rostership projection has Allen as one of the chalkiest plays of the week, but he is also projecting strongly as a top-five wideout. Do not be afraid to take the cheap price on a player getting insane volume.
Chalk to Fade: Brandon Aiyuk $18 (Yahoo Projected 11.4% Rostered)
The 49ers will be without Deebo Samuel this week, which will open up a lot of targets, but San Francisco is averaging under 30 pass attempts per game and are 3.5-point favorites this week. Brandon Aiyuk may not see as big a bump as people think, and he is also prone to losing out to players like George Kittle. At over a 10% rostership projection, Aiyuk is a fade given the overall inconsistency of the 49ers pass attack.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Chase Claypool $18 (Yahoo Projected 4.4% Rostered)
If looking for a player with almost no rostership that has been seeing solid usage of late, Chase Claypool is a great player to target. He has seen 17 targets in two games back since injury and is playing a near every-down role for the short-handed Steelers. He is the perfect epitome of a boom-or-bust target for GPPs, and one that will certainly come with low rostership.
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Good Chalk: Foster Moreau $11 (Yahoo Projected 16.4% Rostered)
It is an obvious spot, but Darren Waller being out this week will have massive implications for Foster Moreau. He tight end played every snap for Las Vegas in Week 7 when Waller missed, and he caught all six of his targets for 60 yards and a touchdown. It is easy to overthink spots like this, but the Raiders are facing a weak passing defense, and Moreau has the top value score in the Awesemo Model at tight end. He is good chalk.
Chalk to Fade: Kyle Pitts $17 (Yahoo Projected 25.8% Rostered)
Kyle Pitts is one player the general DFS public cannot stop targeting. He has had some good moments this year but has also landed under four catches in four of the last five games. Despite playing in every game, Pitts has only seen 10 red-zone targets. The Falcons may have issues scoring points against an elite Tampa defense. He is an easy fade with a rostership projection over 25%.
Low-Rostered Pivot: George Kittle $23 (Yahoo Projected 8.8% Rostered)
Despite Samuel being out, George Kittle does not seem to be getting a ton of love this week. The 49ers will lean on him more however, and he is one of the best after-catch tight ends in the league. The Seahawks have allowed the sixth-most receptions to the tight end position this year as well. Kittle has the highest points projection at his position this week for the main slate and makes for a great GPP target at under 10% projected rostership.
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