Week 5 of the NFL is here, and Awesemo has a ton of great tools and NFL DFS strategy to help tackle all the largest contests in DFS. This Yahoo Daily Fantasy article will walk through some of the standouts in the early Awesemo rostership projections. We will look at who is projected to be highly rostered, who makes for good chalk plays, which highly rostered players may be worth fading and who the low-rostered pivots are in large-field tournaments.
With that said, let us get into the Yahoo daily fantasy NFL picks for Week 5.
Week 5 Yahoo Daily Fantasy NFL Picks & Rostership
Awesemo has some of the best rostership projections on the planet for NFL DFS. If playing in large-field GPPs every week, then using rostership projections can bring a massive edge by knowing where the good pivot and leverage spots will be.
Good Chalk: Daniel Jones $25 (Yahoo Projected 24.6% Rostered)
Daniel Jones is coming off a big week against the Saints where overtime pushed him up over 400 yards. He played well outside of the extra time, though, completing 70% of his passes and passing for over 10 yards per attempt. Jones’ developing consistency in 2021 has been an under-the-radar story, as has his burgeoning fantasy upside. He has gone for at least 27 yards rushing and four or more carries in all four games and faces a Cowboys defense that just allowed two touchdowns rushing to Sam Darnold. It is hard to trust the Giants, but Jones has a fantastic matchup and has the fifth-best points projection on this slate despite being just the 16th-most expensive quarterback this Sunday. It is time to trust Jones, even if he is projecting as the visible chalk at his position.
Chalk to Fade: Mac Jones $20 (Yahoo Projected 10.8% Rostered)
Mac Jones has completed over 70% of his passes in three of four games but remains the leader of a conservative offense. Despite the Patriots throwing the ball 40 times a game through four weeks, Jones is averaging just 6.3 yards per pass attempt, which is good for 27th in the league. The Patriots have a 24.25 implied team total in Week 5, but it is worth noting the Bills — another pass-happy team — only threw 29 times in their dominant win over the Texans last week. Jones may not get the volume needed to truly sparkle for fantasy, and the Patriots do not seem likely to unleash more downfield passes anytime soon.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Jacoby Brissett $22 (Yahoo Projected 4.0% Rostered)
Jacoby Brissett has averaged around 17 Yahoo points through two starts — solid, but not spectacular numbers. He faces Tampa Bay this week, though, and their defense is struggling to mitigate the pass. Tampa allowed a 77.5% completion rate to Mac Jones last week and come into this game averaging less than two sacks per game. Brissett also is able to run the ball, especially in the red zone, where the Buccaneers tend to be very tough against opposing running backs. Brissett’s Awesemo rostership projection this week is less than half of Mac Jones’, and given that Tampa has allowed the second-most yards passing to opposing quarterbacks, he makes for a good rostership pivot in large GPPs.
Good Chalk: Saquon Barkley $23 (Yahoo Projected 28.4% Rostered)
Saquon Barkley had his breakout moment of 2021 against the Saints last week. While he only had 13 carries, his low rush total was likely game flow induced. He averaged a steady 4.1 yards per carry against New Orleans, which is quite good considering its defensive front. Barkley showed elite usage in the passing game, catching six of his seven targets and going for a long score that changed the complexion of the game for New York. The receiving aspect of Barkley’s game could be huge in Week 5 against the Cowboys, who have allowed the most receptions to the running back position. Despite high rostership projections, Barkley has a solid points projection (eighth highest on the main slate) and is too cheap to bypass for what is projected to be the highest-scoring game on the Sunday slate.
Chalk to Fade: Alvin Kamara $31 (Yahoo Projected 30.0% Rostered)
The Saints’ slow pace of play and tendency to take Alvin Kamara out of the passing game this year (for reasons unknown) is killing his upside. He has yet to record more than 29 yards receiving in a game and is only averaging 3.5 targets as well. Washington’s secondary has been terrible, but it has only allowed 4 yards per carry, which is 10th best in the league. The low over/under should be a worry here as well, as the Saints have an implied team total just 23.25. Kamara sets up as a potentially solid fade at this rostership percentage.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Damien Harris $19 (Yahoo Projected 4.0% Rostered)
Landing on the right of the Patriots offense could be pivotal for DFS purposes in Week 5, as they are projected as 9-point favorites against the Texans and have some very low salaries for DFS. While Mac Jones is projected to be one of the lead chalk plays at quarterback, it is interesting that lead running back Damien Harris is projected for under 5% rostership. Harris played on a season-high 61% of the snaps last week and still leads the Patriots running backs in red zone touches. He has the fifth-best value score of his position for this Sunday’s main slate and makes for a great pivot here as a multi-touchdown game seems well within reach given the opponent.
Good Chalk: Davante Adams $33(Yahoo Projected 18.0% Rostered)
Davante Adams projects to have heavy rostership this week, but wide receiver is projected to be quite flat at the top (even Adams’ rostership is expected to be under 20%). The Bengals gave up a career game to Trevor Lawrence last week and allowed Laviska Shenault to break out as well, hitting on a ton of underneath and intermediate routes. Adams is the king of death by a thousand paper cuts, and with Cincinnati projecting as a pass-funnel defense (it has allowed 3.25 yards per carry this year), expect Adams to be the focus for Green Bay against a suddenly spry Bengals team. He projects as the top wide receiver play this week, and the Packers’ 27 implied team total indicates there is no reason to fade the chalk.
Chalk to Fade: Terry McLaurin $22 (Yahoo Projected 11.7% Rostered)
Terry McLaurin had a breakout game in Week 4, going for two touchdowns and over 100 yards on 13 targets. While the Saints secondary certainly took a step back last week against the Giants, this game seems destined to be at a slower pace than the shootout between Atlanta and Washington. New Orleans plays at the slowest pace in the league and has attempted the fewest passes per game. Furthermore, its secondary has been solid at limiting big plays, allowing under 7 yards per attempt. At over 10% rostership, McLaurin sets up as a potential fade spot here.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Kenny Golladay $18 (Yahoo Projected 5.8% Rostered)
There is a theme to this week: Do not be afraid to go bargain shopping with the Giants. Kenny Golladay had his best game as a Giant last game, averaging over 18 yards per catch and going for over 100 yards on seven targets. The fact that he did this while incurring the main coverage of the Saints was also encouraging. He gets a Dallas team this week that has allowed the fifth-most yards receiving and six touchdowns already to opposing wideouts. The Giants are also projected as 7-point underdogs, so a pass-heavy game script should be expected. Projecting at well under 10% rostership, Golladay makes for a nice stack with Daniel Jones and a good pivot at under $20.
Good Chalk: George Kittle $21 (Yahoo Projected 15.0% Rostered)
George Kittle has yet to find the end zone in 2021 and has largely been disappointing for season-long and DFS purposes. The big plays for the 49ers have all gone to Deebo Samuel, but the good news for Kittle supporters is that his usage has risen as the season has gone on. He saw 11 targets last week and just missed scoring a late touchdown against the Seahawks, an outcome that would have boosted his profile and salary for Week 5. Despite some higher-projected rostership, this game between the 49ers and Cardinals looks juicy on paper, with a 50-point over/under that is likely to rise as the week progresses. Kittle has the second-highest projected point total at tight end for Sunday, so even though the big plays have not transpired, everything still says positive regression is on its way for him soon.
Chalk to Fade: Dalton Schultz $19 (Yahoo Projected 6.4% Rostered)
Fading Dalton Schultz the last two weeks has been frustrating, but it is worth another more crack in Week 5. He has now seen 15 targets over the last two games, which puts him third on the team. Teams can run against the Giants, though, as they have allowed 4.5 yards per carry, and that should be the route the Cowboys choose to attack this Sunday. Schultz also has Blake Jarwin, who ranks fourth on the team in targets, breathing down his neck. Eventually, it will be Jarwin going for a big week in this timeshare, and as one of the more popular targets on this slate, it makes sense to fade Schultz and look for cheaper salaries.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Mike Gesicki $16 (Yahoo Projected 1.6% Rostered)
Mike Gesicki has now posted three solid games in a row for the Dolphins (all with Brissett under center), yet no one wants to trust him as a DFS play. He has averaged eight targets a game since Brissett took over at quarterback and faces a Tampa Bay team that has allowed three touchdowns and the second-most receptions to tight ends this season. Gesicki finally was unleashed in the red zone last week and converted his first red-zone target of the year into a touchdown. Miami should be throwing a ton in this game (they are 10-point underdogs and Tampa plays at a fast pace), so everything lines up to use Gesicki as a low-rostered pivot play in Week 5. He may go under 2% rostered in a lot of contests.
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