Week 7 of the NFL is here, and Awesemo has a ton of great tools and NFL DFS strategy to help tackle all the largest contests in DFS. This Yahoo Daily Fantasy article will walk through some of the standouts in the early Awesemo rostership projections. It will look at who is projected to be highly rostered, who makes for good chalk plays, which highly rostered players may be worth fading and who the low-rostered pivots are in large-field tournaments. With that said, let’s get into the Yahoo daily fantasy NFL picks for Week 7.
Week 7 Yahoo Daily Fantasy NFL Picks & Rostership
Awesemo has some of the best rostership projections on the planet for NFL DFS. If playing in large-field GPPs every week, then using rostership projections can bring a massive edge by knowing where the good pivot and leverage spots will be.
Quarterback
Good Chalk: Matthew Stafford $31 (Yahoo Projected 16.4% Rostered)
There are a lot of good-looking quarterbacks in play for Week 7. Three elite teams have implied team totals over 31 points this week, and the Rams head that list, with 32.75 points. Despite that, Matthew Stafford is underpriced at just $31, which makes him just the ninth-most expensive player on the slate. The Rams have passed the ball more in 2021 than last year, and Stafford leads the league in yards per attempt. The upside on the Rams skill players is through the roof this week, and Stafford’s price is not that high anyway. He is not even projecting as the highest-rostered quarterback on the slate, so taking the discount is completely fine, as he is not likely to blow up the overall rostership as much as other chalky plays this week.
Chalk to Fade: Tom Brady $34 (Yahoo Projected 10.4% Rostered)
Tom Brady has been a great daily fantasy target early in 2021, as the Buccaneers remain the highest-volume passing offense in the league. That will not change much in Week 7 either, but the matchup should make gamers a little cautious. Brady’s only poor game of the year came against the slow-paced Patriots, and the Bears are even worse matchup as the fifth-slowest team in the league. Chicago’s defense does not rate out as anything spectacular, but they have held opposing quarterbacks to the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game. There are so many high implied team totals to chase in Week 7 that, with Brady still projected to be double-digit rostered and only the seventh-rated quarterback in points projections, he likely makes for a good fade candidate.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $34 (Yahoo Projected 6.1% Rostered)
Aaron Rodgers projects to have about half the rostership of Brady on this slate. The Packers have a similar implied team total to the Buccaneers in Week 7 at 29 points (the Buccaneers are 29.25) and have a terrific matchup against Washington, who has allowed 31 points per game so far, the worst in the league. Green Bay is only throwing 32.2 times per game (seventh fewest in the league), but Rodgers’ efficiency could go through the roof against a Washington secondary that cannot guard wide receivers and will have to face off against the best wideout in the game in Davante Adams. The Green Bay stack is an elite pivot option on a week where many will bypass them.
Running Back
Good Chalk: Darrell Henderson Jr. $25 (Yahoo Projected 19.4% Rostered)
Darrell Henderson Jr. is emerging as an elite fantasy play this year. He has played on over 80% of the snaps for the Rams in three of his last four games and only dipped in that regard in Week 5 because of a minor injury issue suffered in game. He is averaging a career-high 4.6 yards per carry in 2021 and took a career-high 21 carries last week against the Giants in a mop-up role in the Rams blowout win. Henderson has clearly earned the trust of the Rams coaches, which is significant given the tendency for Seam McVay during his time in Los Angeles has been to give one back the bulk of the work. Everyone is going to be stacking the Rams passing attack this week, so Henderson’s rostership may not even vault into super chalk territory. He can be a leverage play against the Rams passers or even with them, as he is averaging over three targets in his last three games.
Chalk to Fade: Leonard Fournette $27 (Yahoo Projected 23.6% Rostered)
The theme continues as the Awesemo projections say the same thing at each position: Load up on the Rams and fade the Buccaneers if their ownership gets too high. Leonard Fournette is projected for more rostership than Henderson, but his points projection is approximately 1.5 points lower for the week. Fournette has 13 catches over his last three games, but there are two running backs who could pop in and take some workload away at any time, and he has a worse matchup against a Bears team that has allowed just 4.1 yards per carry. Fournette is playing well, but his popularity does not correlate with the weak matchup.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Aaron Jones $33 (Yahoo Projected 5.6% Rostered)
The Packers are again a great team to pivot to at running back, as Aaron Jones projects for sub-6% rostership despite the Packers having a high 29 implied team total. The fear on Jones’ fantasy potential centers around the emergence of A.J. Dillion, who has taken 19 carries the last two weeks. Dillion is mostly being used as a midfield, early-down back, though, as Jones remains the elite receiver and red-zone threat. He is fourth in the league in red-zone carries and has eight red-zone targets, four of which have gone for touchdowns. The game flow says there will be lots of red-zone trips for Jones and Green Bay, so paying up for him offers an upside spot with not much rostership attached in Week 7.
Wide Receiver
Good Chalk: Cooper Kupp $34 (Yahoo Projected 18.8% Rostered)
Kupp does not just project well this week, he has the highest projected point total of any non-quarterback for Week 7 on Yahoo (and by over 2 points). He did not suffer at all last week in a lower-volume day, as Stafford still found him for two touchdowns despite attempting just 28 passes. The Rams offense is efficiency at its finest and has not been slowed at all against these weaker defenses. Kupp’s price increase is even keeping his overall rostership projection under 20%, which would be a huge boon for those looking to play the projections this week.
Chalk to Fade: Mike Evans $24 (Yahoo Projected 12.4% Rostered)
Even on a good week it can be tough to figure where the points are going to flow in Tampa Bay’s wide receiver grouping. Over the last four games Mike Evans has gone over 100 yards twice, but he has also gone scoreless in two of his last three games and has been held under 80 yards in both those scoreless efforts as well. It is boom/bust season with Evans, and opponents are only averaging 30.5 pass attempts against the Bears, the second lowest in the league. He is fadable at 12% projected rostership.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Terry McLaurin $25 (Yahoo Projected 8.3% Rostered)
The Washington offense has been a bit of a disaster the last two weeks, with Terry McLaurin being held under 50 yards and just four catches in each of his last two games. People expected more from him against the Chiefs, but he still led the team in targets with eight and played on every snap, which was a relief after he suffered a hamstring issue mid-week. The quarterback play in Washington is going to make McLaurin a risky option going forward, but he is also top five in targets since Week 2. That kind of volume will eventually lead to big games, and the Packers have a thin secondary with Jaire Alexander out. Washington is an 8.5-point underdog, so they should throw 30-plus times. Based on McLaurin’s usage, that means he should push for 10 targets again. It is a good pivot spot, and it would not be a shock if he dipped under 8% rostership once lock hit.
Tight End
Good Chalk: Darren Waller $21 (Yahoo Projected 21.8% Rostered)
The Raiders offense has a nice matchup against the Eagles and come in with a 26-point implied team total this week. Targeting some of their higher-end skill players is not a poor idea at all, especially as some of them might come with slightly lower rostership than players in marquee games. Darren Waller projects for a big week too, as he leads the Awesemo projections at tight end for the week on Yahoo and faces an Eagles team that has allowed the third-most receptions to opposing tight ends this season. Waller is overdue for a big game, as he has not topped 65 yards or caught more than five passes in a game since Week 1. Paying up looks like the right move, regardless of if he is popular or not.
Chalk to Fade: Kyle Pitts $19 (Yahoo Projected 8.2% Rostered)
The NFL DFS community appears ready to get behind Kyle Pitts again, as he is projected for 8.2% rostership in Week 7 against Miami. It is hard to argue against Pitts considering he is coming off a career game that saw him grab nine of 10 targets for 119 yards and a touchdown. It was an awesome breakout week, but it was also against the Jets. The other factor is Calvin Ridley returning to game action after missing the Jets game for personals reasons. Ridley commands targets, and Pitts is unlikely to see the same volume as a result. If he is going to be even a little chalky, fading Pitts on an inconsistent Falcons offense is likely the right move this week.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Mike Gesicki $18 (Yahoo Projected 2.8% Rostered)
The pivot off Pitts is a simple one, as one only has to look to the other side of the Falcons game. Mike Gesicki comes in averaging 8.25 targets over his last four games and is coming off a big day of his own, as he had eight catches on nine targets. Miami’s defense has cratered this year, and their offense has resorted to passing the ball more, as the team comes in averaging 39.5 pass attempts per game (seventh most in the league). Gesicki could lose a little target share if some of the Miami wideouts return from injury, but he is also projected at just a third of the rostership of Pitts and projects to be part of a higher-volume passing offense.
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