Yahoo Daily Fantasy: NFL Wild Card Weekend Low-Rostership Plays

Awesemo has a ton of great tools and NFL DFS strategy to help tackle all the largest contests for Super Wild Card Week NFL DFS. This Yahoo Daily Fantasy article will walk through some of the standouts in the early Awesemo rostership projections. It will look at who is projected to be highly rostered, who makes for good chalk plays, which highly rostered players may be worth fading and who the low-rostered pivots are in large-field tournaments. With that said, let us get into the Yahoo daily fantasy NFL picks for Super Wild Card Week.

Super Wild Card Week Yahoo Daily Fantasy NFL Picks & Rostership

Awesemo has some of the best rostership projections on the planet for NFL DFS. If playing in large-field GPPs every week, then using rostership projections can bring a massive edge by knowing where the good pivot and leverage spots will be.

Quarterback

Good Chalk: Jalen Hurts $31 (Yahoo Projected 15% Rostered)

The Eagles are 8.5 underdogs this week, so do not be shocked that Jalen Hurts is not projecting with high rostership numbers. Still, Hurts’ rushing ability alone means even a poor game can lead to a big fantasy day, and the forecast for this Sunday in Tampa does not look pleasant. He is the third-highest projected quarterback in the Awesemo projections for Wild Card Week, so he is playable even if he is 15-20% rostered on Sunday.

Chalk to Fade: Tom Brady $35 (Yahoo Projected 21.6% Rostered)

Tom Brady does not have Hurts’ mobility to hide a poor passing day. He is coming into this game off of two strong starts and has thrown for over 700 yards in the last two weeks combined. Those games came against weak secondaries, though, and the Eagles have allowed just 5.8 yards per pass attempt over their last three games. With just Mike Evans to worry about and the weather in their favor, the Eagles defense is in a good spot to limit Brady in this spot. It is a good likely a good time to pivot off for rostership reasons, with Brady looking likely to be one of the two most rostered quarterbacks on Sunday.

Low-Rostered Pivot: Jimmy Garoppolo $22 (Yahoo Projected 11.6% Rostered)

The 49ers offense has scored 23 or more points in eight of their last nine games and are a near impossible unit to hold down. Jimmy Garoppolo has turned the ball over more of late, but he is in a spot where he could be throwing 35-plus times, and he has completed over 70% of his passes and thrown for over 300 yards in two straight games. He is a good value pivot and will not carry much Sunday rostership for a three-game slate.

Running Back

Good Chalk: Joe Mixon $34 (Yahoo Projected 60% Rostered)

The Bengals are favored by 6 points, and they are the largest favorites on the Saturday slate and the team with the highest implied team total (27.25) on Saturday. Joe Mixon getting a week of rest before this game is huge given how much he was used during the regular season. He has seen 14 targets over his last two games and will surely be involved no matter the game flow. Mixon has the second-highest points projection of any running back on this slate, and there are no concerns about injury, rust or rep management. He is the chalk to chase at running back.

Chalk to Fade: Josh Jacobs $23 (Yahoo Projected 52.7% Rostered)

The Raiders ran 26 times last week, and Josh Jacobs ended up having his best game of the season, posting 132 yards and over 5 yards per carry. The Raiders got up quickly in that game and also faced one of the worst run defenses in the league, however. They are bigger underdogs against the Bengals, who allowed 4.3 yards per carry this year, the 13th-best mark in the league. With the Raiders set as wider underdogs this week and facing off against a tougher run defense, fading another big game from a popular Jacobs makes sense in large-field contests.

Low-Rostered Pivot: Elijah Mitchell $20 (Yahoo Projected 27.7% Rostered)

Most of the lead running backs this week will have at least double-digit rostership, but Elijah Mitchell likely will not push past 30% rostered in most contests because of the 49ers’ underdogs status and the fact Mitchell did not get much done against the Rams last week. Mitchell has taken 20 or more carries in five straight starts and faces a Dallas defense that allows 4.5 yards per carry, the seventh-worst mark in the league. Mitchell is a top-five play at running back and will be a good large-field target given the lower rostership numbers.

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Wide Receiver

Good Chalk: Deebo Samuel $36 (Yahoo Projected 17.4% Rostered)

The 49ers have turned Deebo Samuel into a fantasy superstar this season, and there is no reason to think they will suddenly stop using him in the playoffs. In fact, with the 49ers likely to need 25-plus points to win, Samuel is in a spot where he could see his biggest target share in weeks. He has been used more as a running back of late and will certainly have a better matchup in that regard than he did against the Rams last week, where he still averaged 5.6 yards per carry. Samuel has eight touchdowns rushing on the year and will give Dallas’ high-risk/high-reward secondary issues. Samuel projects as a strong top-three play on this slate.

Chalk to Fade: Mike Evans $26 (Yahoo Projected 10.9% Rostered)

While it is likely dangerous to fade all thing Buccaneers, their wide receivers are tough to get to this week. Both of the Eagles’ starting cornerbacks in Darius Slay and Avonte Maddux are top-10 corners on PFF and will give Evans issues no matter where he lines up. Evans has scored three times in his last two games but is down in the rankings, where he rates outside the top six at his position this year. With bad weather also looming over this game, Evans sets up as a high-end fade play.

Low-Rostered Pivot: Tee Higgins $21 (Yahoo Projected 7.4% Rostered)

The Bengals have a nice matchup against the Raiders, who just allowed Justin Herbert to throw for over 380 yards. While Casey Hayward will likely be tasked at stopping Ja’Marr Chase on Saturday, that could mean Tee Higgins has room to roam the field and capitalize on the other team’s thinness at the position. Higgins has averaged around nine targets over his last five games and has had a couple spike weeks this year. He is a top-10 play at his position on Saturday and has one of the better value scores for the weekend.

Tight End

Good Chalk: Rob Gronkowski $30 (Yahoo Projected 29 % Rostered)

The Buccaneers go up against an Eagles team that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season as well. Rob Gronkowski and Brady will likely need to connect more often, with both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown out. Gronkowski rates second highest on the main slate, and Tampa has a monster 29 implied team total. Look for Gronkowski to get back on track this week through sheer volume alone.

Chalk to Fade: Dalton Schultz $13 (Yahoo Projected 18.2% Rostered)

The 49ers cornerbacks have not been great at limiting opposing receivers of late, but San Francisco did allow the seventh-fewest fantasy points and fourth-fewest catches to the tight end position this year. Dalton Schultz is a big part of the offense in Dallas, so he is unlikely to just get phased out, even if the matchup is poor, but Dallas’ big-body receivers will demand more attention given the matchup. Schultz’s higher rostership numbers make him a good fade candidate given the 49ers’ prowess at stopping the run of late.

Low-Rostered Pivot: Hunter Henry $13 (Yahoo Projected 16% Rostered)

There are a couple of interesting cheap options at tight end this week, but on top of Hunter Henry, Dawson Knox has value in the Patriots – Bills game as well. Henry is not going to have to battle for targets with elite wideouts, however, and has seen five or more targets himself over the last five games. Henry’s connection in the red zone with Mac Jones gives him an edge in the rankings and makes him a great Saturday target for going super cheap at tight end.

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