Week 3 of the NFL is here, and Awesemo has a ton of great tools and NFL DFS strategy to help you tackle all the largest contests in DFS. This article will walk through some of the standouts in the early ownership projections on Awesemo. We will look at who is projected to be highly owned, who makes for good chalk plays, which highly players may be worth fading and who the low-owned pivots are in large-field tournaments. Let’s get into the Yahoo daily fantasy NFL picks for Week 3.
Week 3 Yahoo Daily Fantasy NFL Picks & Ownership
Awesemo has some of the best ownership projections on the planet for NFL DFS. If playing in large-field GPPs (daily fantasy tournaments) every week than using ownership projections can give you a massive edge by knowing where the good pivot and leverage spots will be.
Good Chalk: Lamar Jackson (Yahoo Projected 24.6% Owned)
Lamar Jackson projections to be well over 20% owned on this slate, but it is for good reason. He is a close second in the points projection for his position this week and takes on a Lions squad that has allowed six passing touchdowns and over a 75% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks this season. Baltimore has a massive implied total, and Jackson is the best pure value from a price-to-upside perspective of any quarterback above $30 on Yahoo this week.
Chalk to Fade: Daniel Jones (Yahoo Projected 6.7% Owned)
Daniel Jones does not rate all that poorly this week, but the Giants’ implied total is just 12th, and there are numerous quarterback injuries that may be about to open up some good value. The good news is that Jones’s ownership still projects well under 10%. The bad news is that there may be some really cheap quarterbacks who are priced a few dollars lower than him this week, and some are in decent matchups.
Low-Owned Pivot: Justin Fields (Yahoo Projected N/A Owned)
Justin Fields projects for almost no ownership on this slate, but that is because he was only just named starter. Fields attempted 10 rushes last week in only about a half of play against the Bengals and rushed for 123 yards in preseason and the regular season combined. His rushing upside alone makes him a great play, but he is also more aggressive throwing than Andy Dalton (10.3 yards per attempt) and could be in a great garbage-time spot here, as the Bears are 7.5-point underdogs. Even if his ownership climbs, Fields is a great pivot off the other cheap quarterbacks.
Good Chalk: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Yahoo Projected 23.6% Owned)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a night to forget against Baltimore. He lost a fumble late in the game to seal a loss to Baltimore and only took 13 carries while seeing zero targets. It has been a disappointing start to 2021, as he showed some promise by catching three targets in Week 1 but did not follow up in Week 2. Edwards-Helaire’s touchdown production is going to be volatile week-to-week, both in good and bad ways, and the Chiefs have a 31-point total this week. Edwards-Helaire’s $16 price on Yahoo is simply too cheap, and even if he is chalky, he is worth the investment.
Chalk to Fade: Mike Davis (Yahoo Projected 25.4% Owned)
Mike Davis was vastly outplayed by Cordarrelle Patterson in Week 2, who scored twice and caught five passes for 58 yards and a touchdown. On the other side, Davis took in seven passes but only for 25 yards. Davis is still getting a couple more touches than Patterson per game, but if he does not do anything with them, does it matter? The touches could flip more to Patterson in Week 3 given how much more explosive he has been with the ball. Despite all these concerns, Davis is still projecting to be the second-highest-owned running back on Yahoo, making him a great fade candidate in large GPPs this week.
Low-Owned Pivot: Chase Edmonds (Yahoo Projected 5.6% Owned)
Chase Edmonds has had a great start to the year, but it has gone under the radar for fantasy purposes, as he is yet to find the end zone. He has averaged 5.5 yards per carry and converted all nine of his targets into receptions for 8 yards per catch. Despite losing some early-down work to James Conner, who is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry, Edmonds is in no danger of losing his lead role. The Cardinals have a 29.75 total against a weak Jaguars team this week, and eventually Edmonds’ touchdown luck will flip. He has multi-score upside this week and makes for a great low-owned target.
Good Chalk: Mike Williams (Yahoo Projected 12% Owned)
Mike Williams has been a revelation in 2021, showing much better chemistry with quarterback Justin Herbert through two weeks. He leads the Chargers in all receiving categories, including targets, of which he is averaging 11 per game. The $18 price tag will certainly lead to higher ownership, but in a matchup with the Chiefs, where the Chargers should be throwing a ton late in the game, fading Williams does not make a ton of sense here. He is too good a value in the projections to fade.
Chalk to Fade: Marvin Jones (Yahoo Projected 10.6% Owned)
Marvin Jones has now scored in both of Jaguar games. Taking away his touchdown from last week, however, Jones would have been left with just six receptions and 55 yards — hardly a slate-breaking week. Arizona has only allowed 5.9 yards per attempt against in 2021 (seventh best in the league), so they seem likely to put a cap on Jones’ downfield conversions here. At over 10% ownership, fading the inconsistent Jaguars offense makes sense here.
Low-Owned Pivot: A.J. Brown (Yahoo Projected 5.9% Owned)
A.J. Brown was completely overshadowed by Julio Jones last week, as he only managed to haul in three of his nine targets. Despite the off week, Brown gets a good spot to bounce back quickly in Week 3, as he is taking on a Colts team that has suffered injuries in their secondary and has allowed 9.6 yards per pass attempt on the season (third worst in the league). Brown is not cheap, but that is keeping his ownership projections down too. It is a classic pay-up-to-be-contrarian spot and worth taking advantage of in GPPs given the great matchup.
Good Chalk: Travis Kelce (Yahoo Projected 33.2% Owned)
Travis Kelce has seen his target share dip a little through two games, as he is only averaging 7.5 targets per game. Despite that, he has still produced two solid fantasy games thanks to scoring three times, and he seems likely for some positive regression in the targeting department soon. The Awesemo model does not seem too concerned here either, as Kelce is still the highest-projected tight end on the slate by about half a point.
Chalk to Fade: Mark Andrews (Yahoo Projected 23% Owned)
While the Ravens project to score a lot of points this week, they run the ball more than anyone in the league. Through two weeks Baltimore again leads the league in rushing attempts (37.5), and they enter this week as 9.5-point road favorites against Detroit. Mark Andrews has a great matchup but may not see the targets necessary for him to hit. Regardless, he is projecting for over 20% ownership at a very volatile position (outside of Waller and Kelce), which makes him a great fade candidate in large fields.
Low-Owned Pivot: T.J. Hockenson (Yahoo Projected 3.6% Owned)
T.J. Hockenson has seen 20 targets through the Lions first two games, which is six more than their top targeted wide receiver. He is getting treated like a WR1 by Jared Goff at the moment, and that momentum does not seem likely to slow much against Baltimore. Detroit has thrown the ball 46.5 times per game (most in the league), and Baltimore allowed the most receptions to tight ends through two weeks. Hockenson is fantastic pivot at under 5% projected ownership.
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