Awesemo has a ton of great tools and NFL DFS strategy to help tackle all the largest contests for Week 12 NFL DFS. This Yahoo Daily Fantasy article will walk through some of the standouts in the early Awesemo rostership projections. It will look at who is projected to be highly rostered, who makes for good chalk plays, which highly rostered players may be worth fading and who the low-rostered pivots are in large-field tournaments. With that said, let’s get into the Yahoo daily fantasy NFL picks for Week 12.
Week 12 Yahoo Daily Fantasy NFL Picks & Rostership
Awesemo has some of the best rostership projections on the planet for NFL DFS. If playing in large-field GPPs every week, then using rostership projections can bring a massive edge by knowing where the good pivot and leverage spots will be.
Good Chalk: Tom Brady $41 (Yahoo Projected 7.5% Rostered )
The Colts and Buccaneers meet this week in a game that has a 52.5 over/under attached to it. Tom Brady has gone for 20 or more points on Yahoo in seven games already this season and takes on a Colts defense who has improved in defending the pass of late, but who also still rank in the bottom half of the league in yards per pass attempt, against. The Bucs throw the ball more than anyone in the league and face a team here who funnels teams towards the pass via a great rush defense. If the Colts offense keeps clicking, Brady could push for season high pass attempts in this game.
Chalk to Fade: Tyrod Taylor $20 (Yahoo Projected 7.3% Rostered)
Whenever a Houston player gets up in the rostership percentages you should take notice and likely think about going in the other direction. Tyrod Taylor and the Texans are in an interesting spot this week against the Jets in that they’re actually favoured by -2.5 points. They likely are the better team but it’s also not necessarily great for fantasy purposes. The Texans got up early in last week’s game and rushed the ball 32 times, with Taylor completing just 14 passes. If he gets any rostership love this week, Taylor’s an easy fade with other cheaper names having more appeal.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Tua Tagovailoa $22 (Yahoo Projected 3.5% Rostered)
One cheap name you have been able to trust of late in DFS is Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins quarterback has now produced 18.0 or more Yahoo points in three of the last four games he’s started and finished. Miami is passing the ball more this year (39 times per game) and face off against a Carolina defense who allowed Taylor Heinicke to go for a season high 9.36 yards per pass attempt last week. Tagovailoa and all the Dolphins moderately priced offensive players are in a good spot this week (and likely won’t be highly rostered) against a failing Panthers defense.
Good Chalk: Myles Gaskin (Yahoo Projected 13.5% Rostered)
One underrated story at running back for fantasy purposes is the usage Myles Gaskin has been receiving of late. Despite suggesting they would go with a three-man committee at running back this year, the Dolphins have committed to giving Gaskin a big workload of late. Gaskin comes in with 65-touches just over his last three games. This kind of usage alone makes his Yahoo price this week look ridiculous at best and he faces a Carolina defense that allowed 4.8 yards per carry last week.
Chalk to Fade: Austin Ekeler (Yahoo Projected 13.5% Rostered)
The sentiment on Austin Ekeler this week is bound to be sky high after he took in four touchdowns despite touching the ball 17-times. It’s a ridiculous kind of efficiency that certainly won’t be matched anytime soon though. Denver’s defense is in a spot here where they are also likely to over-compensate for the Ekeler game and have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the running back position this year. There’s better pay-up spots and much better value on the board this week to be paying up for, than even a slightly chalky Ekeler.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Elijah Mitchell (Yahoo Projected 8.3% Rostered)
One player to keep an eye this week, via the injury reports, is rookie Elijah Mitchell. Mitchell is questionable to play due to a finger injury that kept him out of Week 11. If he does play we know he’ll be the one handling the bulk of the snaps as he’s been very productive in the 49ers offense this year and had played over 64% in each of the last four games he started and finished. The Vikings have allowed 5.1 yards per carry over their last three games and make for a great opponent. Watch the news, but buy low on the injury fear here if he does play.
Good Chalk: Chris Godwin $28 (Yahoo Projected 13.8% Rostered)
As alluded to above, we may have a perfect storm here with the Buccaneers passing targets this week. Indianapolis should force Tampa to play quicker given their productivity on offense of late and Indianapolis has not been good against elite quarterback/wide receiver combos (outside of last week). Chris Godwin’s price has come up a bit but it’s not overly pricy yet. He’s cheaper than Mike Evans, but has out targeted him over the last four games with Antonio Brown out. Evans is also battling a back issue now which could limit his snaps. Godwin’s in a great spot against a weaker secondary and could push for 10+ targets this week.
Chalk to Fade: Keenan Allen $24 (Yahoo Projected 15.7% Rostered)
I’m not necessarily down on the Chargers offense here, but do expect this week’s game to go much different than last week’s against the Steelers. Denver is coming off a bye week and play at one of the slowest paces in the NFL already. Over their last three games Denver has allowed just 61 yards per pass attempt and, on the season, they’ve allowed the fewest receptions to wide-outs in the league. With Keenan Allen projecting as chalky in the Awesemo rostership projections this week, he sets up as a fade candidate for me here.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Chase Claypool $18 (Yahoo Projected 5.9% Rostered)
The Steelers Chase Claypool returned to action last week and promptly played 91% of the snaps. When he’s been healthy, Claypool has been on the field nearly every snap for the Steelers, especially since Juju Smith-Schuster went down with injury. Claypool’s touchdown rate has been horrendous this year (mainly due to a quarterback who can’t throw downfield anymore) but with the Steelers defense failing he’s going to have more 9+ target games in his future. He’s a steal at under $20 just based on volume alone.
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Good Chalk: Rob Gronkowski $22 (Yahoo Projected 7.5% Rostered)
The theme of this week is pretty evident, as the Tampa Bay skill players all look like they’re in a good spot to perform against the Colts. The target tree for the Buccaneers is obviously smaller now with Antonio Brown out (ankle -questionable) and it was evident that should help Gronkowski — who went for six catches and 71-yards, on eight targets — for fantasy purposes in the short-term. The Colts have given up the second-most receptions to tight-ends this year too and Gronk should push for eight-plus targets again in a game where Tampa may be forced to air it out against an emerging Colts offense.
Chalk to Fade: Jared Cook $10 (Yahoo Projected 8.2% Rostered)
In a game where the Chargers scored 41 points last week, Jared Cook could only manage 28 yards and three catches. The breakout here is simply not happening and it’s become obvious the coaches are starting to prefer Donald Parham Jr. after he set a season high five catches last week. The Broncos are a terrible match-up anyways and have allowed the fifth-fewest receptions to the tight-end position this year.
Low-Rostered Pivot: Noah Fant $18 (Yahoo Projected 4.3% Rostered)
The other side of this Chargers – Broncos game has a little more appeal to me as the Denver skill players are all going to bring low rostership across the board. One player who has performed well for us in these low-rostered spots this year is Noah Fant. He’s well capable of going for 40+ yards and a touchdown in pretty much any spot (and has done so twice in his last six games) and faces a Chargers defense who bleeds points to this position, having already ceded the eighth most yards and second most touchdowns to tight-ends this year. He’ll be sure to garner low rostership at this price.
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