There is a very healthy 10-game slate tonight, so we aren’t going to waste any time before getting into it. Be sure to check back periodically through the day as news breaks and information comes out regarding starting lineups, so we can get the most up-to-date NHL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel.
NHL DFS Picks: Top Stacks for DraftKings & FanDuel | March 11
NHL DFS Picks: Center
Brock Nelson (NYI vs. NJ)
DraftKings – $4,600
FanDuel – $5,400
One thing the Islanders have been doing a bit different this year, especially since the return of Anthony Beauvillier to the lineup, is that they have been using Nelson and his line mates as a shutdown line. That can lead to tough matchups, but over the last 10 games that has led to nearly 18 minutes of ice time per night, a really good mark for his price on either site. With New Jersey in town tonight, the matchup isn’t nearly as difficult as if he were facing the top line from Boston or Tampa Bay. On top of that, he continues to get secondary power-play minutes on a night where they welcome a team sporting a penalty kill that is 18% worse than league average by expected goals (by actual goals against per 60 minutes, they’re a distant dead last). Nelson should get into the high-teens for time on ice and this is a solid matchup for him at all strengths. That makes him a target in any format as a one-off or in tournaments as part of a stack.
Carl Soderberg (CHI at DAL)
DraftKings – $3,600
FanDuel – $3,200
Soderberg has been lost in a season that has featured injury and a surprise playoff push, as he is on pace for 15 goals and 40 points in an 82-game season. What makes him of particular interest tonight is the matchup with a Dallas team giving up the second-most power plays of any team in the NHL. That rate of penalty taking has the Stars giving up 16 power-play goals in just 21 games (they gave up 41 in 69 games last year, so they’re well on pace to destroy that mark). Soderberg has been stapled to the top power-play unit for Chicago for several games now, and that is what makes him a target tonight. The issue keeping him from being a decent cash game play is that his ice time is all over the place – as low as 14 minutes and as high as 21 in his last five. But for tournaments, he’s a good way to get a piece of that power play without paying a high price.
NHL DFS Picks: Winger
David Pastrnak (BOS vs. NYR)
DraftKings – $8,700
FanDuel – $8,500
One of my favorite notes about Pastrnak is that he is way out-scoring every other winger on the slate tonight by DraftKings points per game, but his real-life points per game are down slightly from last year. I am not sure whether he’ll improve, but it’s funny to me that he’s slightly worse than last year and yet still head-and-shoulders above everyone else.
The two notes for Pastrnak are his shot volume – over 4 shots per game and the shot bonus in seven of his 16 contests – and the matchup against the Rangers. That second part is what’s really crucial here, as the Rangers’ top line has an expected goal share under 44% at five-on-five and a goals-against rate well over 3 per 60 minutes. Pastrnak should be a staple of almost any cash-game lineup and is fine as part of a stack in tournaments. Just beware that with Jacob Trouba back, the Rangers’ penalty kill may be a bit better than the bottom 10 it has been the last month.
Oliver Bjorkstrand (CBJ vs. FLA)
DraftKings – $4,200
FanDuel – $5,700
It is always worrisome when recommending any Blue Jackets skater, as we are always at the mercy of John Tortorella. He can hack-and-slash anyone’s ice time at any given moment. With that said, Bjorkstrand was over 19 minutes in the team’s last game as he joined Patrik Laine’s line, and Bjorkstrand rewarded Tortorella with a goal. That does not mean he’s a lock for over 19 minutes a game. In fact, Bjorkstrand is as likely to be shot out of a cannon into the side of a mountain as he is to play 20 minutes for Tortorella tonight. But Bjorkstrand leads the team in points per 60 minutes at five-on-five and hopefully gets the commensurate ice time. Whether he can be used in a cash game I’ll let the preceding 100 words form your opinion, but he’s fine as a one-off in tournaments.
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Warren Foegele (CAR vs. NSH)
DraftKings – $2,900
FanDuel – $3,200
This will be dependent on the availability of Teuvo Teravainen. It looks as if he’s out tonight, but on the off-chance he’s in, Foegele would no longer be a target.
If Teravainen is out, that likely leaves Foegele on the top line with Sebastian Aho, and Foegele had his fifth-most ice time of the season in his last game with Aho. This is important because since the start of the 2019-20 season, Foegele leads the Hurricane forwards in shots per 60 minutes and individual expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. It hasn’t translated to a bevy of goals, likely because he isn’t a sniper, but constantly putting oneself in positions to score will pay off eventually when playing with a great center like Aho. He will also likely get ignored as people focus on Carolina’s second line or use Aho by himself. Foegele is fine to use as salary relief in any format but is probably best used as a one-off or part of a stack in a tournament.
NHL DFS Picks: Defense
Mattias Ekholm (NSH at CAR)
DraftKings – $5,600
FanDuel – $4,200
Roman Josi is out of the lineup tonight, Ryan Ellis is still on the injured reserve, and now Dante Fabbro has been suspended for two games. Ekholm remains the last man standing on the Nashville blue line, and even with Fabbro in the lineup last game, Ekholm finished just shy of 29 minutes, posting a pair of shots and a shot-block bonus on DraftKings. With Fabbro out of the lineup, it seems pushing 30 minutes is very much in order for Ekholm, and his price still hasn’t risen much over on FanDuel. With the level of minutes he’s expected to play, he seems a lock over on FanDuel regardless of format. It is more of a conversation on DraftKings given where his price is, but anyone wanting to roster a guy who is a threat for 30 minutes and the shot-block bonus at minimum don’t have to look much further.
Jake Muzzin (TOR vs. WPG)
DraftKings – $4,300
FanDuel – $4,300
Muzzin is one of my favorite one-offs to use on almost any Toronto slate because he’s typically much lower-owned than Morgan Rielly as he’s not on the top power-play unit (today, for example, we have Muzzin at about one-fifth the projected ownership of Rielly). That is despite the fact that Muzzin has been more productive as a DraftKings scorer than Rielly and is considerably cheaper. He has gone five games without a point but has multiple shots in each of those games, so it’s not as if he hasn’t been involved. They get a Winnipeg team that is 19th by goals against this year at five-on-five, and that puts Muzzin in range as a one-off for tournaments or as part of a Toronto stack.
NHL DFS Picks: Goalie
Jacob Markstrom (CGY vs. MTL)
DraftKings – $7,700
FanDuel – $7,400
This is a good matchup for Markstrom. Montreal is in town on a back-to-back on the road after having played a late game in Vancouver last night. The Canadiens are third by shots for per 60 minutes over the last month, while Calgary is 29th by shots allowed per 60 minutes in the same span. This is a matchup of a team that allows a lot of shots (Calgary) against a team that takes a lot (Montreal), yet that team doesn’t have a good power play (Montreal’s is 11th by goals over the last month, and that represents a hot streak). Markstrom is a target tonight, particularly on DraftKings.
Top Stacks
PIT1: Crosby – Guentzel – Rust
Pittsburgh’s top line this year has been excellent this year, posting a 56.8% expected-goal share, 3.3 goals per 60 minutes and a 73.5% actual-goal share. Tonight they get a Buffalo team that will be without Jack Eichel, meaning rookie center Dylan Cozens is the matchup for this Pittsburgh line. It is one that greatly favors Pittsburgh, and that makes them a target for tonight. By our Top Stacks tool, the Crosby line has a greater chance of smashing the slate than their ownership (roughly 20% to 14% on our first run), so they may not be as chalky as we think.
NYI2: Nelson – Beauvillier – Bailey
There are probably three Islander lines in play tonight, but the second line has been great since Beauvillier returned, posting a 59% expected-goal share and 82.8% actual-goal share. As mentioned, this line matching has given these guys some more ice time, as Bailey has gained about a minute of ice time a game over the last 10 contests. They are cheap as well, which makes them a nice filler for the more expensive stacks elsewhere. Just beware of ownership, as our Top Stacks tool has them as one of the more popular filler lines on the night.
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